Another interesting one - Conservatives are clearly expecting a gain, after all, Smith's victory was largely unexpected in 2015, but Smith does actually have a 3% majority, so if the polls move in Labour's favour, she could well hold.
This is a Labour Tier 6 seat (Con 0.8 3.1) and thus highly marginal. It is an odd seat and disjointed in many respects. It seems the Conservative probable candidate may not be scintillating and we all know the Labour candidate is an absolute useless no-hoper! The climate and the positioning in stats suggest an easy Conservative gain......BUT!! The UKIP and LD figures are very low and both the majors made gains last time! A strong LD recovery might help the Conservatives? The Conservatives need to take votes off Labour to do this, so they need Cat Smith to be as prominent as possible, because I imagine she sheds votes every time anyone meets her or sees her on TV? Surely this woefully hopeless MP can't survive in this of all years. She certainly doesn't deserve to.
The demographics have altered here in the past 2 years, at least 600 'exec' 4 bed homes built on several new estates around Lancaster. I feel sure that Cat Smith will follow previous Labour MP Hilton Dawson down the road in June, the question must be ' how safe a Conservative seat will this become? '
Looking forward to her concession speech will ill-concealed impatience.
"At a time that we're 20 percent behind in the national vote to lose only in the four figure range I think actually is a pretty fantastic result and is due to the incredible achievements of Dear Leader"
And to think I couldn't have a worse MP than Trimble or the DUP!
Confident Eric will regain this seat but it will be on a below average swing. The UKIP vote in the Fleetwood end should break quite heavily to the Conservatives and Smith has such little crossover appeal.