Bishop Auckland Aug 30, 2017 20:34:27 GMT
Post by jigger on Aug 30, 2017 20:34:27 GMT
Don't think the voter flow would have been one sided enough. They are still in with a decent chance of taking this next time. If current polling holds, assuming the Conservatives are doing worse with remain voters, urban, middle class etc, then they are holding up in seats like Bishop Auckland.
However, boundary changes are not great. The seat has to expand into the safe Labour parts of Sedgefield and/or North West Durham. The latter could include Weardale which is good for the Tories but otherwise the wards moving in aren't good at all for them.
Despite benefiting the Tories nationwide, the North East is the sort of place where seat reduction really hurts them. Only Hexham is safe while Darlington is the only one to get better (becoming ultra marginal). Middlesbrough South + East Cleveland, Stockton South, Berwick etc, all become ultra marginal or reasonably Labour leaning. A Redcar and East Cleveland would be great for the Tories, but the commission seems to love the idea of pairing rural Cleveland with urban south Middlesbrough and Redcar with north east Middlesbrough across miles of industry 😁
And even were there to be a swing to Labour at the next election, Bishop Auckland would be a prime target to buck the national swing. The Labour-Conservative swing has been better for the Conservatives than the English average would suggest at the last 5 elections and the seat is clearly trending Tory.
Of course, it could be argued that (as the seat has already swung so heavily to the Conservatives compared to England as a whole) the Conservatives have defied the national swing here as well as they can and that Bishop Auckland will therefore swing in line with the nation in the future . We'll have to wait and see on that point.