Interesting how there was a small swing to the Tories here in 2015 unlike the other 2 Barnet seats.
Andrew Dismore was very popular with the Jewish community. In 2010 Offord was an unknown quantity. Consequently there was little movement to the Conservatives among the Jewish community in 2010. This was coupled with a London-wide increase in turnout among ethnic minorities which benefited Labour in Hendon. By 2015 Offord had become well-established and was popular with the Jewish community. Dismore was still popular but had not been an MP for 5 years. Labour was less popular under Miliband in 2015. So a swing to Conservative.
Villiers, who should be in prison for treason now, holding on after the exit poll showed otherwise was a very disappointing result.
Others have said Loughinisland but I'm genuinely confused what you think Theresa Villiers' treason is? And what is treason that could not be applied (by malevolent people) to the nationalist population? Genuinely interested to know.
“Performers and audience begin with the premise that badness means the police/ Norman Tebbit/ The Sun newspaper/ God (or any similar authority)/ the Nolan Sisters/ cruise missiles/ Saatchi's/ heroin. Goodness means whales/ Socialist Worker/ guilt/ Diane Abbott/ UB40s/ Benefit concerts/ Ms./ cocaine.”
Could definitely see a situation where the Tories would take all 4 of those seats despite Labour being the largest party given their majorities.
Given the massive demographic changes between 2001 and 2011, I do think Chipping Barnet will be out of reach for the Conservatives soon enough. Certainly I could see the Tories winning those seats as well as Ashfield while losing Chipping Barnet, especially in the case of Ashfield.
Indeed I could see the Conservatives losing Chingford & Woodford Green but winning Bassetlaw in a future election.
Demographic change is fascinating. Who would've thought in 2001 that the Conservatives would one day win Mansfield and not Canterbury?