UKIP may yet hold up reasonably well here - the local elections may provide a big hint there.
Word is that UKIP's performance here in the County Council elections is likely to be dire. I would agree that the UKIP vote will hold up better here than in other ex-Conservative seats, but only because UKIP's vote will collapse less here than in most other seats ..... But it will be a collapse nevertheless.
I have lived in this constituency and know the terrain, the people and the air. It has a quality in the air that can be intoxicating. The old posters for Skegness were on the money.
I think the flirtation with UKIP is probably completely over? They were sullen, hurting and angry. Now they see that UKIP was a valve and really only a valve. Now they have a whole machine in May. I contend that May is very much a Boston-shaped and a Boston-oriented politician. So the electorate will quietly morph back to being solid and stolid Conservatives. I project a large 5-figure majority.
Nuttall is all I feared he would be and worse.......Much worse! He has chosen one of the top five prospects to fail in. And fail he will. There is nowhere in that political and geographical landscape for him to hide. He will be trussed into a net of brassicas and hung out to dry...........probably by East Europeans! We can judge him on what he says, how he says it, how he conducts the national campaign and how he conducts this campaign. It will not be good. His election to the leadership was my personal call to action. The game was over and the mirage evaporated nearly overnight......And certainly over Stoke. He hopes for 600 candidates and yet we hear of stand-downs every hour. I wonder if they will make 300?