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Post by middleenglander on Feb 26, 2017 13:46:17 GMT
Looks like 18 by-elections during March:
* 4 on 2nd March
* 7 on 9th
* 4 on 16th
* 3 on 23rd
* 0 on 30th - none identified so far
8 of the contests are for District Councils
- 2 with annual elections with the last election in 2016 and 6 where the previous all out elections were in 2015
2 of the contests are for single member wards
7 are in Unitary Authorities
- 2 with annual elections including 1 with a by-election since last May and 5 with all out elections in 2015 although 1 has had a subsequent by-election
2 of the contests are for single member wards
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the previous election was in May last year
1 in a London Borough with previous election in 2014
Conservatives are defending 10 seats, 2 arising from the death of the previous councillor and 8 a resignation
Labour is defending 5 seats, 4 following a death and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats, UKIP and Independents each defend 1 seat following a death
With all nominations known:
Conservatives are contesting 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour and UKIP each 15, Green 8 and there are 5 Independents contesting 4 seats and 1 each Its Our County and No Description
- a total of 79 candidates for the 18 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 26, 2017 16:23:10 GMT
Christchurch: Con 45 UKIP 25 Lab 15 Ind 10 Green 5
Redcar,Hutton: LD 46 Con 35 Lab 12 UKIP 7
Redcar,Newcomen: LD 51 Lab 20 UKIP 9 Ind(Stones) 8 Ind(Hannon) 7 Con 5
Salford: Lab 40 Con 35 LD 8 Ind 7 UKIP 7 Green 3
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 1, 2017 20:27:10 GMT
New entrant!Last month I played this offline (and only joined the forum mid-Feb) and was doing quite well by being rather more LD minded than those playing officially -you can guess the ones on which I came badly unstuck). So if I now stick my neck out in public this is where I will really come unstuck- I predict,so at least one prediction will be right.
Christchurch Mudeford:Con 60,Lab 14,Ind 12,UKIP 10, Green 4
Redcar Hutton: LD 40, Con 36,Lab 14, UKIP 10
Redcar Newcomen: LD 44, Lab 24, Con 13, UKIP 10, Inds 5(Stones) 4(Hannon)
Salford Kersal: Lab 32, Con 30, LD 21, UKIP 9, Ind 6, Green 2
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 1, 2017 20:35:53 GMT
Welcome!
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Post by greenhert on Mar 1, 2017 22:30:13 GMT
Christchurch DC, Mudeford & Friars Cliffe: Conservative 54, Labour 16, UKIP 13, Independent 11, Green 6.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Hutton: Liberal Democrats 39, Conservative 37, Labour 15, UKIP 9.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Newcomen: Liberal Democrats 48, Labour 22, Conservative 12, UKIP 9, Independent (Stones) 6, Independent (Hannon) 3.
Salford MBC, Kersal: Labour 45, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 8, Green 4, Independent (Wineberg) 3.
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Post by marksenior on Mar 1, 2017 23:05:24 GMT
Welcome to the contest yellowperil
Here are my entries
Christchurch Con 53 Ind 16 UKIP 14 Lab 11 Green 6
Redcar Hutton LD 38 Con 37 Lab 17 UKIP 8
Redcar Newcomen LD 44 Lab 20 Ind Stone 14 Con 11 UKIP 7 Ind Hannon 4
Salford Lab 47 Con 27 LD 12 UKIP 8 Green 4 Ind 2
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 1, 2017 23:14:44 GMT
Christchurch: Con 49 UKIP 18 Lab 13 Ind 16 Green 4
Redcar,Hutton: LD 37 Con 39 Lab 18 UKIP 6
Redcar,Newcomen: LD 44 Lab 26 UKIP 8 Ind(Stones) 4 Ind(Hannon) 8 Con 10
Salford: Lab 38 Con 28 LD 7 Ind 17 UKIP 7 Green 3
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Post by Ruggerman on Mar 1, 2017 23:15:32 GMT
My first predictions:
Christchurch: Con: 50, UKIP: 20, Lab: 15, Ind: 10, Green: 5
Hutton: LD: 35, Con: 32, Lab: 28, UKIP: 5
Newcomen: LD: 38, Lab: 28, UKIP: 21, Con: 6, Ind (Stones): 5, Ind (Hannon): 2
Kersal: Lab: 40, Con: 25, UKIP: 15, LD: 9, Ind: 6, Green: 5
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 1, 2017 23:21:44 GMT
Christchurch Con 51 Lab 17 UKIP 13 Ind 12 Green 7
Hutton Con 38 LD 36 Lab 19 UKIP 7
Newcomen LD 43 Lab 23 Con 16 Ind (S) 9 UKIP 8 Ind (H) 1
Salford Lab 36 Con 31 LD 13 UKIP 10 Ind 6 Green 4
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 2, 2017 0:37:49 GMT
CHRISTCHURCH Mudeford and Friars Cliffe: C 50, UKIP 24, Lab 18, Ind 6, GP 2
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Hutton: C 51, L Dem 31, Lab 11, UKIP 7
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Newcomen: L Dem 54, Lab 16, UKIP 14, Ind Stones 7, C 6, Ind Hannon 3
SALFORD Kersal: Lab 40, C 34, Ind 10, UKIP 9, GP 4, L Dem 3
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Post by brianj on Mar 2, 2017 2:08:50 GMT
Christchurch, Mudeford and Friars Cliffe: Con 46, LibDem 26, UKIP 15, Lab 10, Green 3.
Redcar and Cleveland, Hutton: LibDem 36, Con 32, Lab 20, UKIP 12.
Redcar and Cleveland, Newcomen: LibDem 42, Lab 28, Stones 10, Con 9, UKIP 7, Hannon 4.
Salford, Kersal: Lab 37, Con 32, LibDem 16, UKIP 8, Ind 4, Green 3.
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Mar 2, 2017 8:24:52 GMT
Christchurch, Mudeford & Friars Cliffe: Con 51, Lab 17, UKIP 14, Ind 10, Green 8
Redcar & Cleveland, Hutton: LD 37, Con 35, Lab 17, UKIP 11
Redcar & Cleveland, Newcomen: LD 40, Lab 26, Con 15, UKIP 10, Ind(Stones) 5, Ind(Hannon) 4
Salford, Kersal: Lab 38, Con 28, LD 18 UKIP 8, Green 6, Ind(Wineberg) 2
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 2, 2017 10:55:45 GMT
Salford MB - Kersal Lab 42.4% Con 38.5% UKIP 7.7% LD 5.4% Grn 3.4% Ind 2.6% Redcar & Cleveland UA - Hutton Con 41.2% LD 34.4% Lab 18.3% UKIP 6.2% Redcar & Cleveland UA - Newcomen LD 45.6% Lab 29.2% UKIP 8.3% Ind S 6.7% Con 6.5% Ind H 3.7% Christchurch BC - Mudeford & Friars Cliff Con 47.7% Ind 19.4% UKIP 16.5% Lab 11.1% Grn 5.3% |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 2, 2017 20:34:13 GMT
11 entries this week with Ruggerman & Yellow Peril making a first appearance. brianj gets 26 additional faults for a non-existent Liberal Democrat in Mudeford & Friars Cliff whilst Pete Whitehead gets 0.1 additional fault for adding to 100.1 in Hutton.
Christchurch, Mudeford & Friar Cliff: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 20% (Lancastrian over UKIP) to 46% (Yellow Peril over Labour)
Redcar & Cleveland, Hutton: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, Carlton43, David Boothroyd, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Conservative hold - 8 have majority less than 5% whichever way
Redcar & Cleveland: Newcomen: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Labour ranging from 10% (Ruggerman) to 38% (David Boothroyd)
Salford, Kersal: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (Yellow Peril) to 20% (Mark Senior)
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Post by linders on Mar 3, 2017 9:11:14 GMT
Sorry for ruining all your scores, folks...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2017 9:12:45 GMT
Let you into a secret - my first thoughts on Kersal had the Labour and Conservative scores the opposite way round to how they finally appeared. Then thought it didn't look right.
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Clarko
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 149 
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Post by Clarko on Mar 3, 2017 11:19:59 GMT
Sorry for ruining all your scores, folks... I'm not!  |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 3, 2017 16:28:22 GMT
For week 1:| Authority | Christchurch | Redcar & Cleveland | Redcar & Cleveland | Salford | Week 1 | Week 1 | Ward | Mudeford & Friars Cliff | Hutton | Newcomen | Kersall | faults | position | brianj | 49.8+26 | 50.8+10
| 26.1
| 48.8+10
| 221.6
| 11th
| Carlton43 | 45.4
| 42.0
| 36.4
| 44.9+10
| 178.7
| 4th
| David Boothroyd | 64.1
| 18.5
| 31.2
| 30.9+10
| 154.6
| 3rd
| Greenhert | 47.4
| 40.8+10
| 29.2
| 54.8+10
| 192.2
| 7th
| hempie | 49.4
| 44.8+10
| 26.4
| 60.8+10
| 201.4
| 9th
| Lancastrian | 53.8
| 48.5+10
| 28.3
| 38.8+10
| 189.4
| 6th
| Mark Senior | 37.4
| 42.0+10
| 36.4
| 62.8+10
| 198.6
| 8th
| Pete Whitehead | 30.8
| 37.3+0.1 | 18.9
| 39.2+10
| 136.3
| 1st
| Robert Waller | 40.1
| 42.0
| 19.5
| 32.8+10
| 144.5
| 2nd
| Ruggerman | 50.1
| 58.0+10
| 20.1
| 56.9+10
| 205.1
| 10th
| Yellow Peril
| 48.1
| 42.8+10
| 22.4
| 47.6+10
| 180.9
| 5th
| Total faults | 516.4+26
| 467.5+0.1+70
| 294.9
| 518.3+110
| 2003.4
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Objection please by noon Sunday. There are 7 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by lancastrian on Mar 5, 2017 17:35:39 GMT
Broxbourne: Lab 44 Con 36 UKIP 12 LD 8
Derby: Lab 39 Con 33 UKIP 16 LD 12
East Herts: Con 40 LD 30 Lab 16 Green 8 UKIP 6
Harrow: Lab 55 Con 26 LD 15 UKIP 4
Rutland: Con 52 LD 38 UKIP 10
Stratford: Con 45 LD 40 Green 8 UKIP 7
West Oxfordshire: LD 45 Con 37 Lab 7 Green 6 UKIP 5
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Post by brianj on Mar 8, 2017 3:46:53 GMT
Broxbourne, Waltham Cross: Con 40, Lab 38, LibDem 12, UKIP 10.
Derby, Derwent: Con 36, Lab 32, LibDem 17, UKIP 15.
East Herts, Hertford Castle: Con 44, Lab 26, LibDem 17, UKIP 10, Green 3.
Harrow, Roxbourne: Lab 50, LibDem 26, Con 18, UKIP 4.
Rutland, Exton: Con 48, LibDem 40, UKIP 12.
Stratford-on-Avon, Red Horse: Con 56, LibDem 28, UKIP 16.
West Oxford, Hailey: Con 44, LibDem 29, Lab 14, UKIP 8, Green 5.
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