|
Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 3, 2017 16:16:35 GMT
Looking at the results from the two Rotherham wards last night, I wonder if UKIP could do surprisingly badly in Stoke, and the LibDems could do surprisingly well? It's a long time since I've been to Brinsworth (alighting from the bus at the Three Magpies) , but at face value they seem reasonably similar areas.
BUT it's a lot easier to make an impact in a Borough Ward than in a parliamentary constituency.Having looked at some data, they're not!
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 3, 2017 16:18:33 GMT
(...) Perhaps we are getting back to a position like then where if the Lib Dems put in much more effort than the others they can win virtually anywhere, whether Labour or Tory leaning. (As a geochemist I would talk about a high activation energy here). Something I used to say in Sheffield: the LibDems would win by working, Labour wouldn't win by working but by the LibDems collapsing from exhaustion.
|
|
Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 292
|
Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 3, 2017 17:11:18 GMT
I remember back in pre-coalition times there used to be polls where 50% of people would say "I would vote Lib Dem but I don't because they can't win". I guess it was what gave rise to the much derided "Winning here" posters... Perhaps we are getting back to a position like then where if the Lib Dems put in much more effort than the others they can win virtually anywhere, whether Labour or Tory leaning. (As a geochemist I would talk about a high activation energy here). I do suspect that if the same effort had been put into Dinnington the Lib Dems would have won there too, and I would put money on them in any local by-election with 20 miles of Sheffield at the moment! There's no doubt that it's easier to get people to vote for a party if they see a chance of it winning. With every LD by-election win, voters find it easier to support them, and every win gets activists more enthusiastic and energised. Success definitely breeds success. At local level, we are now seeing LD gains virtually every week, some of them spectacular, in every region of England, and against all other parties. It remains to be seen if they can take seats off Labour at parliamentary level, just as they have done locally in Sunderland and now Rotherham. I suspect that the LD's themselves were surprised by the sheer scale of the win in B&C, where they obviously put all their resources. If they had realised how comfortably they were ahead, perhaps the resource split would have been less one-sided.
|
|
Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 292
|
Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 3, 2017 17:18:50 GMT
Looking at the results from the two Rotherham wards last night, I wonder if UKIP could do surprisingly badly in Stoke, and the LibDems could do surprisingly well? In Stoke the main issue is these (probably fake) polls that show UKIP doing very well. I do get the impression though that Labour are not very popular in Stoke (hence losing control to a bunch of Independents, and a turnout of 49% in the GE), and if Nuttall manages a few more gaffes, and the Lib Dem campaign leaders get the activist support they want, who knows what might happen?? I'm not a betting man, and have never placed a bet in my life - until last night, when I put down some money on LD in Stoke at 50/1. That's not because I'm convinced they will win, but because in a 4-way contest, I think it's possible, with odds much better than 50/1. Labour are obviously divided and demoralised, Conservatives are concentrating energy on Copeland, Nuttall is not making the impact for UKIP that they hoped - and LD's are energised and on a roll. They will certainly not make the kind of gains in a parliamentary by that they did last night, but they don't need to. In an effectively 4-way split, with a possibly low percentage poll, just about anything is possible.
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 3, 2017 18:14:02 GMT
Given that the former Labour councillor was convicted of sexual assault in a place like Rotherham, I'm not in the least surprised we didn;t win that ward
|
|
|
Post by lbarnes on Feb 3, 2017 21:27:26 GMT
Given that the former Labour councillor was convicted of sexual assault in a place like Rotherham, I'm not in the least surprised we didn;t win that ward The size of the defeat must give cause for concern though
|
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 21,752
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Feb 3, 2017 23:17:02 GMT
I am imagining a parallel-universe scenario in which the big LD victory is entirely due to a misprint, and the correct result is 200 votes instead of 2000.
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Feb 4, 2017 18:04:38 GMT
A fascinating pair of by-elections which together say a lot about the current scene. The stuff about the LDs in this thread is about right, though the gain here is slightly mind-blowing even for someone like me who has "seen it all".
But together they follow the trend of a collapse in the UKIP vote since the referendum. Stoke really is very important for them. If Nuttall does not win - and in particular if he does badly - they are dead in the water. It's their last throw of the dice and it has to come off for them.
The Liberals have never had more than a toehold on the Council in modern times. The Councillor I remember was Pete Bowler (also of Guardian Country Diary fame) who sadly died a few years back.
|
|