Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 11, 2017 10:08:45 GMT
For Trump a strong correlation was found with PainKillers. AfD: Crystal-delicts 2014:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 11, 2017 10:11:33 GMT
LEFT (grades 5.0-9.2-18.4-27.6):
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 18, 2017 20:13:00 GMT
Mitte, which I know fairly well and was in during the last couple of days of the campaign is still fairly mixed, it isn't all the shiny city centre around Unter den Linden or the mansions just south of the Tiergarten, it includes heavily Turkish Moabit and "Red" Wedding, some Plattenbau south of Leipziger Straße and the very grim area around U-Kurfürstenstraße. Ah, I recognise all those descriptions. Moabit must be the neighbourhood I wandered around a lot during the 2013 campaign which had lots of posters up for the short-lived 'BiG' party. This time the Turkish clientelist micro-party was curiously enough called the Allianz Deutscher Demokraten... which was strangely not on the ballot in the major cities, only in NRW where it managed 41,178 list votes or 0.4% of the Land total. Unlike 4 years ago it wasn't afraid to use pictures of Erdoğan in its election literature, notably – in a supportive manner, BTW./quote] They're not the same party.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 18, 2017 20:16:10 GMT
On those numbers, the CSU will still almost certainly win every single Direktmandat in Bavaria, which will mean massive overhang and the need for quite a few additional seats (some possibly from other states) to balance things out. This makes me wonder what sort of parliamentary arithmetic we'd be looking at if the "overhang + balance" seats weren't things. If balancing seats weren't a thing there would be a theoretical CDU-CSU-AfD majority in seats, but still not a CDU-CSU-FDP one.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 18, 2017 20:19:16 GMT
It is of course the kind of "very poor result" that SPD would have been ecstatic with. As I think you correctly noted when it became clear that the SPD challenge had collapsed many CDU/AFD floaters went for the AFD. A fair few CDU/FDP floaters probably went for the FDP for the same reason. While historically 32/33% would be viewed as a less than impressive result for the leading party in the context of this election it is far from a disaster. The trouble is their vote depend on the older generation. A symbolic threshold for fragmentation of a party system is when the two largest parties drop below 50% combined. Well technically speaking we just barely reached that point. And nobody noticed. That is, excluding the CSU.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2017 20:35:50 GMT
The trouble is their vote depend on the older generation. A symbolic threshold for fragmentation of a party system is when the two largest parties drop below 50% combined. Well technically speaking we just barely reached that point. And nobody noticed. That is, excluding the CSU. Yeah well, permanent alliances count as parties in this context.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 18, 2017 20:40:43 GMT
Hence technically. I'm more bemused by the "nobody noticed" part anyways. I've seen German journalistic hottakes about how few votes Merkel really got that excluded the CSU as if Bavarians had had any other option for voting for Merkel... still missed that detail. I didn't notice til two days later, either.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2017 17:29:20 GMT
How the parties performed in the most populous 15 cities (thanks to
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2017 17:46:10 GMT
The FinalResults are in: Participation: CDU/CSU: SPD: FDP: GREENS: LEFT+AfD: Others:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 24, 2017 16:54:11 GMT
5 of the 6 DeputySpeakers were elected without difficulties. But AfD's Glaser - like Gauland coming from CDU-Hessia - failed in all 3 attempts. He received 115/.../... votes, so all/most of AfD's 92, rather not Mrs.Petry's and few from CSU and CDU.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2017 22:43:02 GMT
5 of the 6 DeputySpeakers were elected without difficulties. But AfD's Glaser - like Gauland coming from CDU-Hessia - failed in all 3 attempts. He received 115/.../... votes, so all/most of AfD's 92, rather not Mrs.Petry's and few from CSU and CDU. Glaser is a very dubious character. As the council member for finance in Frankfurt, he made some utterly disastrous investments.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 24, 2017 23:10:00 GMT
5 of the 6 DeputySpeakers were elected without difficulties. But AfD's Glaser - like Gauland coming from CDU-Hessia - failed in all 3 attempts. He received 115/.../... votes, so all/most of AfD's 92, rather not Mrs.Petry's and few from CSU and CDU. Glaser is a very dubious character. As the council member for finance in Frankfurt, he made some utterly disastrous investments. Maybe, I don't know. But that was no problem. He wasn't elected because of saying, that the Islam is per se political and doesn't divide church and state aso. - what is perhaps not entirely incorrect...
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 24, 2017 23:24:09 GMT
Glaser is a very dubious character I mean as he's Hesse CDU to AfD that's kind of a given isn't it.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 25, 2017 23:53:00 GMT
Saw something interesting earlier. Apparently Breslau (now Wrocław) was renowned as a hotbed of the DDP before the war. Is there anywhere of any significance that is a FDP citadel on a consistent basis?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 26, 2017 4:47:45 GMT
Saw something interesting earlier. Apparently Breslau (now Wrocław) was renowned as a hotbed of the DDP before the war. Is there anywhere of any significance that is a FDP citadel on a consistent basis? I'm not sure if it'll meet your definition of 'significant', but Waiblingen seems far closer to being a Hochburg for the FDP than Breslau ever really appears to have been for the DDP.
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Post by BossMan on Oct 26, 2017 6:01:25 GMT
Saw something interesting earlier. Apparently Breslau (now Wrocław) was renowned as a hotbed of the DDP before the war. Is there anywhere of any significance that is a FDP citadel on a consistent basis? I'm not sure if it'll meet your definition of 'significant', but Waiblingen seems far closer to being a Hochburg for the FDP than Breslau ever really appears to have been for the DDP. Aye, those three seats on the Gemeinderat. Breslau would probably pushing a million people by now had the expulsions not happened and it had remained in Germany. Waiblingen, umm, 50,000. More like a Hochdorf.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 26, 2017 18:08:02 GMT
I'm not sure if it'll meet your definition of 'significant', but Waiblingen seems far closer to being a Hochburg for the FDP than Breslau ever really appears to have been for the DDP. Aye, those three seats on the Gemeinderat. Breslau would probably pushing a million people by now had the expulsions not happened and it had remained in Germany. Waiblingen, umm, 50,000. More like a Hoch dorf. Ha, yes, whilst doing some digging it occurred to me that going by Gemeinderat standings alone, then the answer to DW's question was clearly ' nein' (in which case it was probably rhetorical). So I widened the criteria and looked for somewhere that: a) consistently had higher FDP votes (first and second) than the national average at federal elections; b) consistently voted more for the FDP than the regional average at state elections; and c) had provided an FDP mayor far more often than not ... and still only came up with a 50,000-population settlement. It's partly my own biases, but a mid-sized town in BaWü is more significance to me than a theoretical version of Breslau that had not been given to Poland and had its German population expelled. Waiblingen is certainly not a village! Breslau itself looks like it mainly voted SPD before it eventually accounted for one of the better NSDAP results in the last mainly free and fair Reichstag election. It had a reputation as a 'liberal' city in the 1920s but I'd be interested to know what the source is for its strong DDP results to see what kind of comparison with the FDP we should be looking for.
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Post by tamar on Oct 26, 2017 21:06:26 GMT
It had a reputation as a 'liberal' city in the 1920s Interestingly it still does despite the population having been entirely exchanged - Wroclaw always has very strong results for liberal parties in Polish elections.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 26, 2017 22:09:37 GMT
It had a reputation as a 'liberal' city in the 1920s Interestingly it still does despite the population having been entirely exchanged - Wroclaw always has very strong results for liberal parties in Polish elections. Wrocław was a hotbed of anti-communism, not entirely derived from its population being forcibly deported from Lwow. Fighting Solidarity, the hardliners, were based there.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 22:13:32 GMT
Interestingly it still does despite the population having been entirely exchanged - Wroclaw always has very strong results for liberal parties in Polish elections. Wrocław was a hotbed of anti-communism, not entirely derived from its population being forcibly deported from Lwow. Fighting Solidarity, the hardliners, were based there. What is the story behind that?
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