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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2020 20:48:51 GMT
Big turnaround here. Swing of 6.5 to Sanders
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 22, 2020 21:11:59 GMT
Yes, Sanders is doing really well in the polls. But it has been looking like a Biden/Sanders duel for a long time (about 2.5 months). Warren's collapse with male voters (now generally at half her support with women) has just confirmed it. ... A fifth of Republicans think Trump is guilty, but more than a third of them don't want him removed because of it; and a sixth of Democrats want the voters to decide Trump's faith. Conducting an impeachment trial so close to a presidential election clearly lower the support for removal.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2020 21:20:52 GMT
Yes, Sanders is doing really well in the polls. But it has been looking like a Biden/Sanders duel for a long time (about 2.5 months). Warren's collapse with male voters (now generally at half her support with women) has just confirmed it. ... A fifth of Republicans think Trump is guilty, but more than a third of them don't want him removed because of it; and a sixth of Democrats want the voters to decide Trump's faith. Conducting an impeachment trial so close to a presidential election clearly lower the support for removal. Warren has had a bounce with YouGov tbf
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 22, 2020 21:37:52 GMT
Warren has had a bounce with YouGov tbf That looks like an outlier. YouGov is generally very "friendly" towards Warren and the poll has some weird subsamples (I know that's not in itself enough to disregard it but there are too many of them). Unlike nearly all other polls it shows Warren leading Sanders among Black and Hispanic voters. It has her leading Sanders 28-19 with Hispanics, which simply isn't credible given his strength with latinos (there is no reason for such a shift). She also leads Sanders by a whooping 21-9 in the South, which is a major reason for her overall lead. Finally she has 22% support among men and 19% among women (!).
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Post by London Lad on Jan 23, 2020 3:37:02 GMT
Looks like the Dems are more interested in eating themselves than beating Trump. Hot on the heals of Clinton slagging off Bernie and then Warren slagging off Bernie we now have Clinton getting sued for $50 million for slagging off Gabbard.
Not surprising that I haven't seen a single Dem 2020 poster but have already seen hundreds for Trump - they just dont want to win.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 23, 2020 4:06:57 GMT
Looks like the Dems are more interested in eating themselves than beating Trump. Hot on the heals of Clinton slagging off Bernie and then Warren slagging off Bernie we now have Clinton getting sued for $50 million for slagging off Gabbard. Not surprising that I haven't seen a single Dem 2020 poster but have already seen hundreds for Trump - they just dont want to win. Depends where you are; every candidate competing in Iowa has thousands of lawn boards across the State, and are upping their TV and online presence from today according to the ad trackers. At this point Trump has an advantage in having a largely clear field so can scattergun his approach; on the Democratic side they are largely focused on four States, with the exception of Bloomberg and Steyer who can nationalise their campaign. Your last sentence is simply the latest addition to the large pile of moronically ignorant posts by you. Of course the Democrats want to win but they’re having to play the game differently until they have a candidate.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 23, 2020 13:23:41 GMT
Sanders +14...
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Post by curiousliberal on Jan 23, 2020 13:44:02 GMT
It's one poll; looking at trends in his vote-share in New Hampshire:
Monmouth September/January: Sanders 12-18 RKM October/January: Sanders 22-22 YouGov November/January: Sanders 20-27 Suffolk November/January: Sanders 16-16 Emerson November/January: Sanders 26-23 MassINC December/January: Sanders 15-29
There hasn't been much recent NH state polling and it's a bit mixed for him (worse in Iowa, but it's rather unclear because one of the polls there has had to rely on weightings because of oversampling of the 65+ age group and another is by Breitbart's arm). Though this result looks like a bit of an outlier in terms of swing, it is in line with a national surge. I've read some punditry arguing he's peaking at the right time, but it might be just a little too early, as we've a week's scrutiny cycle to go through yet.
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Post by London Lad on Jan 23, 2020 14:03:27 GMT
Your last sentence is simply the latest addition to the large pile of moronically ignorant posts by you. Of course the Democrats want to win but they’re having to play the game differently until they have a candidate. You don't win by attacking each other - you win by attacking the opposition. By slagging off each other now you end up with the same situation as you had last time where the supporters of the losing candidate don't fall in behind the eventual winner which then allows Trump to win again. Seems the Dems have not learnt anything. Or they have been taking lessons from the Labour Party..
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 23, 2020 14:05:01 GMT
It's one poll; looking at trends in his vote-share in New Hampshire: Monmouth September/January: Sanders 12-18 RKM October/January: Sanders 22-22 YouGov November/January: Sanders 20-27 Suffolk November/January: Sanders 16-16 Emerson November/January: Sanders 26-23 MassINC December/January: Sanders 15-29 There hasn't been much recent NH state polling and it's a bit mixed for him (worse in Iowa, but it's rather unclear because one of the polls there has had to rely on weightings because of oversampling of the 65+ age group and another is by Breitbart's arm). Though this result looks like a bit of an outlier in terms of swing, it is in line with a national surge. I've read some punditry arguing he's peaking at the right time, but it might be just a little too early, as we've a week's scrutiny cycle to go through yet. Regarding Iowa the Selzer polls are the only ones that matter and we'll get a new one before the vote, their track record is so superior that it isn't really worth looking at polling averages. NH polls from before his recent surge in the national polls aren't that interesting now, so we'll just have to wait for more polling to get a clearer picture. One interesting aspect is whether the pollsters have adjusted their Likely Voter models enough. In 2018 they significantly under polled young voters, but ended up getting the result more or less right because the Democrats performed worse with elderly voters than the polls had shown. Some US anoraks with an excellent track record seem to think they generally haven't, and if that's true Sanders is going to over perform the polls (young people make up such a big share of his coalition that potential losses among other groups aren't going to nivellate a higher youth turnout). EDIT: The last DMR poll ("Selzer poll") will be published on 1 February, two days before the caucus.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jan 24, 2020 0:43:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 7:14:35 GMT
Bernie up 2 Biden down 2
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 24, 2020 8:05:39 GMT
Big turnaround here. Swing of 6.5 to Sanders If Steyer is only on 2% in NH (see other poll), then he must be on 20%+ somewhere else in these 4 states.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 24, 2020 12:59:27 GMT
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 24, 2020 23:01:11 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 24, 2020 23:49:00 GMT
Big turnaround here. Swing of 6.5 to Sanders If Steyer is only on 2% in NH (see other poll), then he must be on 20%+ somewhere else in these 4 states. Well, it's two different polls and one of them is probably wrong about Steyer (e.g. he's at 3% in NH in most other polls), but he has bombarded SC with ads and is doing well among especially AA voters and it's not inconceivable that he is at 15%+ (it's been a while since we had a quality SC poll, but he was on 10-15% in the last ones) and he is also polling decently in NV (on 10% in the last poll I saw from mid-January and he could easily be around 12% now). Since Buttigieg is doing so badly with PoC Steyer has become an alternative to Biden for black and (to a lesser degree) hispanic voters that think Sanders is too extreme or won't be able to deliver on his promises. NH will likely be Steyer's worst state among the four (very white, quite affluent and well-educated so people who don't like Biden or Sanders will go for Warren and Buttigieg), he'll probably do a bit better in IA even though he's at 3% in both states right now. Steyer is running on a fairly progressive platform that's arguably to the left of Biden and Buttigieg and his support is rather different than Bloomberg's moderate swing voters. But part of Steyer's support is probably rather shallow because of low info voters who have seen a lot of Steyer ads and just remember his name when they get polled, but won't actually bother to vote.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 25, 2020 0:12:52 GMT
If Steyer is only on 2% in NH (see other poll), then he must be on 20%+ somewhere else in these 4 states. Well, it's two different polls and one of them is probably wrong about Steyer, but he has bombarded SC with ads and is doing well among especially AA voters and it's not inconceivable that he is at 15%+ (it's been a while since we had a quality SC poll, but he was on 10-15% in the last ones) and he is also polling decently in NV (on 8% in the last poll I saw and he could easily be around 10-11% now). Since Buttigieg is doing so badly with PoC Steyer has become an alternative to Biden for black and (to a lesser degree) hispanic voters that think Sanders is too extreme or won't be able to deliver on his promises. NH will likely be Steyer's worst state among the four (very white, quite affluent and well-educated so people who don't like Biden or Sanders will go for Warren and Buttigieg), he should do a bit better in IA. Steyer is running on a fairly progressive platform that's arguably to the left of Biden and Buttigieg and his support is rather different than Bloomberg's moderate swing voters. But part of Steyer's support is probably rather shallow because of low info voters who have seen a lot of Steyer ads and just remember his name when they get polled, but won't actually bother to vote. There does seem to be a consensus amongst the mainstream media that Steyer’s the one with momentum in SC, so you’re probably right that that’s where his polling strength lies.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 25, 2020 0:37:13 GMT
Worth remembering that the four states vary in population and SC is the most populous with c. 40% of the total, so Steyer is doing well in the biggest state whereas NH has less than 11% of the total population in the four states.
NH 1.35 mio. NV 3.0 mio. IA 3.15 mio. SC 5.1 mio.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 25, 2020 10:25:56 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jan 25, 2020 10:39:19 GMT
Warren has built the 2nd biggest campaign organisation (after Bloomberg) and seems determined to continue after the early states regardless of the result. "Elizabeth Warren’s campaign disclosed Friday that it has over 1,000 full-time staffers in over 31 states plus the District of Columbia in preparation for a protracted primary slog that goes well beyond the upcoming Iowa caucuses and early states. “We expect this to be a long nomination fight and have built our campaign to sustain well past Super Tuesday and stay resilient no matter what breathless media narratives come when voting begins,” wrote campaign manager Roger Lau in a memo to supporters Friday. “The four early states contests are just the beginning.” www.politico.com/news/2020/01/24/elizabeth-warren-campaign-staff-strategy-103499
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