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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 17, 2019 12:54:27 GMT
How will the Democrat candidates respond? Will they rally in New Mexico or will they give that time to a numerically closer state?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 17, 2019 13:32:34 GMT
Interesting that Donald Trump held a rally yesterday in Rio Rancho, New Mexico last night. I know that there are those on this Forum who give Trump and his team credit for absolutely nothing. But I believe a more dispassionate view is that Trump, as tempered by his team, has a pretty astute eye to the political main chance, so it's noteworthy that he uses his valuable campaigning time in New Mexico. At first glance, New Mexico looks further out of play than several other states which voted for Clinton in 2016. So what's his thinking here? New Mexico's new Democrat Governor has certainly fired up the more Conservative (mostly rural) elements of the state with the aggressive firearms measures passed at state level. I don't believe Trump is motivated by seeking to influence next year's House and Senate elections. The east of the State is riding an oil-fuelled boom the effects of which you really have to see to believe! The border issue is one that many southern communities still see as fundamental. And this most Hispanic of states has seen more than its fair share of economic advancement for Hispanic communities. Are Gary Johnson's former supporters more likely to break for Trump? To be honest, the metrics underlying Trump's decision to campaign here yesterday somewhat elude me. I'm not saying that Trump's team have got it wrong - nor am I saying they're right. What I'm seeking to establish is why the Trump team are making this investment in New Mexico ….. what is possibly their thinking to justify treating New Mexico as being in play? Rio Rancho is part of the Albuquerque metro area, and I've often felt that Albuquerque, like Phoenix in next-door Arizona, just doesn't have the "feel" of being a Democrat city - certainly not to the extent that election results indicate, with Bernalillo County having moved from a reliably Republican county more than 25 years ago to being a reliably Democrat county since. But Albuquerque is far too central in New Mexico for any real "leakage" of the effects of the rally into Texas or Arizona - so I ask the question again: why New Mexico? Because it’s bad form for a sitting President going into a re-election campaign not to have officially visited at least 48 of the 50 States; in 2012 IIRC Obama was only missing Alaska from the list, others have also passed on Hawa’ii. It’s Trump’s first visit to NM, and happens to coincide with Hispanic Heritage Month. There’s no way short of a McGovern/Dukakis blowout Trump gets closer than his 2016 loss in NM, and the Democrats almost certainly expand their margin of victory. In other news, the Working Families Party, who endorsed Sanders as the progressive choice in 2016, yesterday endorsed Warren, leading to some Twitter sniping between the WFP and Sanders’ campaign. There are also rumours that Sanders is having a large clear out of staff in New Hampshire in an acknowledgement that he’s behind where he was in 2016. timrollpickering At this stage they’ll ignore it until closer to its nominating date, pretty much everything’s focussed on the four early States and fundraising. It’s possible they may pay it some attention if the ultimate nominee is feeling confident as it’s easy to fit in a day with rallies in the more swingy Nevada and Arizona, and they’re pretty keen as a Party to keep hold of CD02 which was a pick-up last year so could stump for Rep Torres Small.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 17, 2019 18:15:51 GMT
speaking of Trumps rantings in New Mexico, its been covered as usual by the great Daniel Dale:
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2019 12:01:11 GMT
George W Bush visited every state except Vermont.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 18, 2019 12:04:44 GMT
George W Bush visited every state except Vermont. I think Obama got all 50 in, but visited Alaska in his second term. As for GWB, I wonder why Vermont missed out? It’s small enough to have fitted in on his way to visit Ma and Pa in Kennebunkport.
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 19, 2019 6:42:01 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 19, 2019 9:07:33 GMT
Trump visiting New Mexico might mean "they know something we don't". Alternatively, it could be the same sort of delusion that led the Tory campaign in 2017 to make a point of targeting several safe Labour seats......which duly remained safe Labour seats.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 19, 2019 15:52:19 GMT
Every time Trump speaks it's a gaffe-fest. That has never changed. Conservatives still think he's the greatest thing since slice bread, and if Biden wins the Democrat nomination liberals won't care if he gets the odd word wrong. No-one is going to care about gaffes this election.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Sept 19, 2019 15:56:42 GMT
The last two GOP presidents have been Donald "fuck gaffes - I'm deadly serious" Trump and George "gaffe" Bush. The only people that care about Biden's "gaffes" are the other Dem contenders who want to shoot him down from the lead.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 19, 2019 17:21:44 GMT
I mean its fair to say gaffes could cost him the nomination, but if he wins it, how big a gaffe would he have to make to cost him the election?
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tomc
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Post by tomc on Sept 19, 2019 23:41:58 GMT
The last two GOP presidents have been Donald "fuck gaffes - I'm deadly serious" Trump and George "gaffe" Bush. The only people that care about Biden's "gaffes" are the other Dem contenders who want to shoot him down from the lead. I suppose the point is that Trump's gaffes are already built into current polling whereas those of any Democrat nominee are not, or not to the same extent. Any of the leading Democrats would go into the election ahead and the question is what might plausibly happen during the campaign to overturn that? It could be successful attacks from Trump on Sanders on policy, Biden on gaffes/unfitness or Warren on kookiness. I'm not sure what potential attacks he could have on O'Rourke, Buttigieg or Harris so they're safer bets.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 19, 2019 23:53:28 GMT
The last two GOP presidents have been Donald "fuck gaffes - I'm deadly serious" Trump and George "gaffe" Bush. The only people that care about Biden's "gaffes" are the other Dem contenders who want to shoot him down from the lead. I suppose the point is that Trump's gaffes are already built into current polling whereas those of any Democrat nominee are not, or not to the same extent. Any of the leading Democrats would go into the election ahead and the question is what might plausibly happen during the campaign to overturn that? It could be successful attacks from Trump on Sanders on policy, Biden on gaffes/unfitness or Warren on kookiness. I'm not sure what potential attacks he could have on O'Rourke, Buttigieg or Harris so they're safer bets. I think that Biden's gaffes are built into polling as well. As a two term Vice President he is obviously pretty well known and people know what they are getting with him. Now it is certainly the case that he has weaknesses as a candidate but the idea put forward by some that he is a weak candidate and that there are much better options out there for the Democrats does not seem to have much evidence to support it.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2019 8:57:38 GMT
Biden's gaffes are worse than Bush and Trump's were when they sought the nomination.
Forgetting Obama's name despite being VP for 8 years and referring to the Parkland shooting (in 2018) as happening when he was still VP are both worrying.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 20, 2019 9:06:58 GMT
Biden's gaffes are not a problem for him for the same reason Trump's boorishness wasn't a problem for him in 2016: it's part of his personality and anyone considering voting for him has already factored it in.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2019 9:22:52 GMT
People citing Trump need to remember that the GOP generally plays politics on "easier" mode than the Dems, not unlike the Tories over here.
The present POTUS is very much sui generis even apart from that anyway.
Yes, count me as someone who thinks Biden is far from home and hosed.
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 20, 2019 11:45:28 GMT
Bill de Blasio has stopped his campaign.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 20, 2019 12:12:05 GMT
Even if Biden is showing his age, Germany and Hungary have previously been led by the outright senile, and East Germany and France by men who were dying and probably shouldn't have been in power at all.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 20, 2019 13:08:34 GMT
Bill de Blasio has stopped his campaign. How can anyone tell the difference?
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Post by john07 on Sept 20, 2019 15:44:54 GMT
Even if Biden is showing his age, Germany and Hungary have previously been led by the outright senile, and East Germany and France by men who were dying and probably shouldn't have been in power at all. Reagan was showing signs of senility in his last couple of years in office. Fortunately for all he was good at delegating so no real harm was done.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 20, 2019 16:13:20 GMT
Biden's gaffes are worse than Bush and Trump's were when they sought the nomination. Forgetting Obama's name despite being VP for 8 years and referring to the Parkland shooting (in 2018) as happening when he was still VP are both worrying. Wake me up when he starts inventing muslim terror attacks, forgets who the president of Puerto Rico is, doesn't understand the difference between England and the United Kingdom, thinks nuking hurricanes is a good idea, vows to nuke terrorist cells in the middle-east, and starts saying windmills cause cancer and kill all the birds, and openly admits to committing crimes whilst in office. etc etc He's got a long way to go before he meets Trumps level of senility.
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