Who will come second in Sleaford (Lincs) by-election?

[Deleted]

Any mad optimists plumping for UKIP to win can always put the Tories second.

[froome]

I've voted Lincs Independents, as I think Marianne Overton has a decent profile in the north of the constituency which will edge her past the parties. Sarah Stock should also poll reasonably well.

[Deleted]

I see Sleaford and only think of North Hykenham

[greenhert]

With UKIP's woes, and neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats being in contention at all to even get close to the Conservatives', I would say the Lincolnshire Independents who in much of rural Lincolnshire form the only reliable opposition to the Conservatives.

[carlton43]

Dec 6, 2016 18:34:49 GMT froome said:

I've voted Lincs Independents, as I think Marianne Overton has a decent profile in the north of the constituency which will edge her past the parties. Sarah Stock should also poll reasonably well.

They have been about a bit and made no progress at all in 2015 so why do you think they go to second now?

[carlton43]

Dec 6, 2016 22:23:19 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

I see Sleaford and only think of North Hykenham

My mental map goes immediately to an ancient town in a precise location with an interesting railway history. I have never heard of any other Sleaford and never thought of Hykeham until a silly renaming of this constituency. Now Kyme would be quite different. It had a most important abbey with great wealth and power and it was the seat of an earldom to which my family is connected by marriage and is still in attainder! I had an uncle and still have a cousin with Kyme as a Christian name.

[akmd]

Definitely UKIP in 2nd place. Perhaps with as much as 30% of the vote. Still a comfortable Tory hold though.

[The Bishop]

UKIP *should* come a good second, but it is claimed their actual campaign has been rather less than stellar.

[froome]

I would rate this as UKIP's weakest constituency in Lincolnshire, as maxque has noted on the other thread. The rural and Hykeham parts are more akin to a traditional Conservative seat further south than to the rest of Lincolnshire (much like neighbouring Newark).

Regarding the 'hype' for the Lincs Independent candidate, she has saved her deposit in the last two elections, which is very rare for an Independent candidate, and they are as well organised as one could expect from a group of Independents. Obviously a by-election should allow the main parties to squeeze their vote hard, but I doubt they will find that easy in such a spread-out rural constituency where it isn't so easy to flood the streets with activists from outside.

[Deleted]

For Labour I would expect/hope this to be more of a Witney scenario than a Richmond one, in that there is no prospect of a non-Tory win so no need for tactical switching. It may not be enough to save second though I am sceptical that there will be a UKIP surge or even much of an increase on their vote from 2015 but have no particular local knowledge.

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2016 11:59:40 GMT @strinity said:

For Labour I would expect/hope this to be more of a Witney scenario than a Richmond one, in that there is no prospect of a non-Tory win so no need for tactical switching. It may not be enough to save second though I am sceptical that there will be a UKIP surge or even much of an increase on their vote from 2015 but have no particular local knowledge.

If Brexit is the main issue, which undoubtedly it is, it's very hard to see the point of voting Labour, a sort of opposing Brexit whilst sort of accepting the referendum result type party.

If you are reasonably happy with the way things are going, vote Tory. If you want to pressurise the gov't into implementing Brexit, vote UKIP. If you are opposed to Brexit, vote LibDem.

Three clear choices.

[Deleted]

I suspect Brexit won't have so much of an impact here because most voters are getting what they wanted, so there will be less motivation to vote to 'send a message' as happened in Richmond. Therefore I would expect/hope the Labour vote to hold up reasonably notwithstanding our myriad national problems. What movement there is I think is more likelier to be away from Con and towards the other two parties (and perhaps even the indy).

[maxque]

Dec 7, 2016 13:08:08 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Dec 7, 2016 11:59:40 GMT @strinity said:

For Labour I would expect/hope this to be more of a Witney scenario than a Richmond one, in that there is no prospect of a non-Tory win so no need for tactical switching. It may not be enough to save second though I am sceptical that there will be a UKIP surge or even much of an increase on their vote from 2015 but have no particular local knowledge.

If Brexit is the main issue, which undoubtedly it is, it's very hard to see the point of voting Labour, a sort of opposing Brexit whilst sort of accepting the referendum result type party.

If you are reasonably happy with the way things are going, vote Tory. If you want to pressurise the gov't into implementing Brexit, vote UKIP. If you are opposed to Brexit, vote LibDem.

Three clear choices.

Again, you're overestimating Brexit influence. Many people are just sick of hearing about it and doesn't want to hear anything about it (from both sides) and most people vote about economy usually. Remember Bill Clinton.