Dudley Apr 22, 2012 10:28:38 GMT
Post by iainbhx on Apr 22, 2012 10:28:38 GMT
It's a reasonable assumption that Labour should win all the wards it won last year (though I have previously argued that I thought Gornal may not be quite so nailed on) which gives 6 gains taking them to 34. It's apparent from Andy's list that a further swing of 3% since last year could deliver another three wards and one of these has two vacancies. I think there must be a decent chance that Labour can nick one of the seats in Wollaston & Stourbridge Town. Beyond that Wordsley and Amblecote, being packed full of swing voters are hardly out of reach. So potentially there are up to 12 gains to be had by Labour with only a slightly better performance than last year. I don't think the will win 12, but 9 would give them an outright majority. 8 gains would take them to 36 - exactly half of the council. But because Norton stays vacant until the end of the month this would give them an effective majority until then. Would this enable them to put in place a Labour mayor for the casting vote? (I suspect the Mayor has already been annointed, but presume this can be changed?)
All this assumes Labour gaining UKIP's seat in ST James which seems likely on the stats but its possible personal vote enables them to hold on. The strong possibility exists therefore of UKIP holding the balance of power with one or other of the main parties on 36 seats, when all are decided
I think that Wollaston and Stourbridge Town will depend on turnout, the seat is Labour in even years but it depends on getting the vote out on Wollaston Farm. If they can do that, I think there's every chance of them getting both seats in Wollaston and Stourbridge Town.
Norton can be safely regarded as being in the Tory camp. I don't think it's ever been Labour or Labour have even been reasonably close. It did (amazingly) ticker with LibDemmery for a few years, but that's very much faded now.
The least said about Gornal the better, but yes, it very much has the capacity to "do different".