By-elections - November 10th

[andrea]

Con gain in Eltham North

If I've understood correctly from the periscope video on the council twitter feed it's something like

Con 1335
Lab 1297

[ColinJ]

Nov 10, 2016 23:59:02 GMT andrea said:

Con gain in Eltham North

If I've understood correctly from the periscope video on the council twitter feed it's something like

Con 1335
Lab 1297

Matt Browne Green Party 110
Charlie Davis The Conservative Party 1,335
Sam Macaulay Liberal Democrats 279
Simon Warwick Peirce Labour Party 1,297
Barbara Ray UK Independence Party 160

[maxque]

Nov 10, 2016 23:29:56 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

Queenstown (Wandsworth)

Lab 53.3% (+14%)
Con 33.9% (-5.5%)
LD 8.6% (+3%)
Green 4.2% (-5%)

More exactly:

Lab +14.1
Con -5.7
LD +3.3
Grn -4.8

[maxque]

Nov 11, 2016 0:10:48 GMT ColinJ said:

Nov 10, 2016 23:59:02 GMT andrea said:

Con gain in Eltham North

If I've understood correctly from the periscope video on the council twitter feed it's something like

Con 1335
Lab 1297

Matt Browne Green Party 110
Charlie Davis The Conservative Party 1,335
Sam Macaulay Liberal Democrats 279
Simon Warwick Peirce Labour Party 1,297
Barbara Ray UK Independence Party 160

Con 41.7% (+10.1)
Lab 40.5% (+9.3)
LD 9.3% (+6.0)
UKIP 5.0% (-14.5)
Grn 3.4% (-6.1)

[Pete Whitehead]

Queenstown includes one of my favourite estates

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Although Eltham North will go down as a loss, it generally bodes well for Labour in Labour/Conservative marginals. This was a ward where Labour had only ever won seats in 2014, back to 1978 if you include its predecessor wards. To lose by only 38 votes when the byelection was caused by a voluntary resignation and Labour already has a large majority on the council shows that Labour is still able to compete in traditionally Tory voting areas of London.

[Deleted]

[carlton43]

Nov 11, 2016 9:34:27 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Although Eltham North will go down as a loss, it generally bodes well for Labour in Labour/Conservative marginals. This was a ward where Labour had only ever won seats in 2014, back to 1978 if you include its predecessor wards. To lose by only 38 votes when the byelection was caused by a voluntary resignation and Labour already has a large majority on the council shows that Labour is still able to compete in traditionally Tory voting areas of London.

Yeah!    Yeah!!   You lost a Labour Ward in a Labour Constituency narrowly whilst the bright new Momentum people held an important meeting instead of doing the boring political groundwork stuff. What chances of holding Eltham in a snap GE?  Yes, I agree.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 10, 2016 21:16:51 GMT Robert Waller said:

andrewteale 's informative review:
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-10-11-16

Comments seem to be disabled on that site, which is probably a good thing as I've clearly wasted time making comments on previous ones which are still showing as 'awaiting moderation'. Anyway, Oughton is not part of the Hitchin North CC division - it's in Hitchin Rural

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 11, 2016 10:45:24 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 11, 2016 9:34:27 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Although Eltham North will go down as a loss, it generally bodes well for Labour in Labour/Conservative marginals. This was a ward where Labour had only ever won seats in 2014, back to 1978 if you include its predecessor wards. To lose by only 38 votes when the byelection was caused by a voluntary resignation and Labour already has a large majority on the council shows that Labour is still able to compete in traditionally Tory voting areas of London.

Yeah!    Yeah!!   You lost a Labour Ward in a Labour Constituency narrowly whilst the bright new Momentum people held an important meeting instead of doing the boring political groundwork stuff. What chances of holding Eltham in a snap GE?  Yes, I agree.

Eltham North would have voted Conservative at the last General election by a wider margin than they won yesterday (one of three wards to vote Tory against four fairly solid Labour wards). So on that swing Labour would be quite safe in Eltham (though in reality an early election could see them under some pressure here)

[carlton43]

Nov 11, 2016 10:59:46 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 11, 2016 10:45:24 GMT carlton43 said:

Yeah!    Yeah!!   You lost a Labour Ward in a Labour Constituency narrowly whilst the bright new Momentum people held an important meeting instead of doing the boring political groundwork stuff. What chances of holding Eltham in a snap GE?  Yes, I agree.

Eltham North would have voted Conservative at the last General election by a wider margin than they won yesterday (one of three wards to vote Tory against four fairly solid Labour wards). So on that swing Labour would be quite safe in Eltham (though in reality an early election could see them under some pressure here)

But the occasion of a GE changes the particular dynamics of the contest and more people focus on the choices of Corbyn-May and Fluid Policy Vacuum Labour- Solid State Negotiate Brexit Conservatives..............And I think that would deliver a clear (even if narrow) Conservative victory.

[The Bishop]

Eltham North and Queenstown looked similar on paper, at any rate if you just looked at the 2014 results.

But the Mayoral outcomes earlier this year provided a rather better clue as to where they might go.....

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 11, 2016 11:06:41 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 11, 2016 10:59:46 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Eltham North would have voted Conservative at the last General election by a wider margin than they won yesterday (one of three wards to vote Tory against four fairly solid Labour wards). So on that swing Labour would be quite safe in Eltham (though in reality an early election could see them under some pressure here)

But the occasion of a GE changes the particular dynamics of the contest and more people focus on the choices of Corbyn-May and Fluid Policy Vacuum Labour- Solid State Negotiate Brexit Conservatives..............And I think that would deliver a clear (even if narrow) Conservative victory.

Yes I agree with that (at least I think it is possible) which is why I wrote what I did in brackets at the end, but nevertheless taken on it's own this by-election result cannot be painted as particularly bad for Labour. Indeed had it been the Tory held seat which had fallen vacant then it would have almost been a gain

[carlton43]

Nov 11, 2016 11:13:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 11, 2016 11:06:41 GMT carlton43 said:

But the occasion of a GE changes the particular dynamics of the contest and more people focus on the choices of Corbyn-May and Fluid Policy Vacuum Labour- Solid State Negotiate Brexit Conservatives..............And I think that would deliver a clear (even if narrow) Conservative victory.

Yes I agree with that (at least I think it is possible) which is why I wrote what I did in brackets at the end, but nevertheless taken on it's own this by-election result cannot be painted as particularly bad for Labour. Indeed had it been the Tory held seat which had fallen vacant then it would have almost been a gain

Yes. OK Pete. I suppose I am smarting from it only 'just' being won and having two other really duff projections last night. Hitchin was much worse than expected.

[maxque]

Nov 11, 2016 11:13:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 11, 2016 11:06:41 GMT carlton43 said:

But the occasion of a GE changes the particular dynamics of the contest and more people focus on the choices of Corbyn-May and Fluid Policy Vacuum Labour- Solid State Negotiate Brexit Conservatives..............And I think that would deliver a clear (even if narrow) Conservative victory.

Yes I agree with that (at least I think it is possible) which is why I wrote what I did in brackets at the end, but nevertheless taken on it's own this by-election result cannot be painted as particularly bad for Labour. Indeed had it been the Tory held seat which had fallen vacant then it would have almost been a gain

Especially as it would mean losing popular councillor Spencer Drury (who was the candidate in Eltham at last GE).

[The Bishop]

BTW does anybody (Pete?) know anything about this Independent in Hitchin - interesting that they polled rather better than most were expecting.....

[Pete Whitehead]

Well overall your predictions were better than mine. I was less surprised by the narrowness of the Tory victory here than by the size of Labour's victory in Queenstown - even though that ward is a shithole I expected the local Tory strength in Wandsworth to win through (though as someone else pointed out their performance in recent by-elections in the borough have been poor). Perhaps joe should have stayed away just as @barnabymarder did

[David Ashforth]

Nov 11, 2016 11:21:34 GMT The Bishop said:

BTW does anybody (Pete?) know anything about this Independent in Hitchin - interesting that they polled rather better than most were expecting.....

Her website:
www.jackiemcdonald.co.uk/

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 11, 2016 11:21:34 GMT The Bishop said:

BTW does anybody (Pete?) know anything about this Independent in Hitchin - interesting that they polled rather better than most were expecting.....

I know nothing about them other than that they stood previously in the neighbouring (and very different) Priory ward. Obviously my ignorance was reflected in my prediction which was well out. There used to be quite a deal of strength of Independents and Residents in Hitchin actually but not so much in this particular ward

[Deleted]

Nov 11, 2016 11:23:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Well overall your predictions were better than mine. I was less surprised by the narrowness of the Tory victory here than by the size of Labour's victory in Queenstown - even though that ward is a shithole I expected the local Tory strength in Wandsworth to win through (though as someone else pointed out their performance in recent by-elections in the borough have been poor). Perhaps joe should have stayed away just as @barnabymarder did

Bits of Queenstown are really really nice. Basically the bits near the park. Sadly they are occupied by bankers who get home at 9pm + and are very hard to turn out except at general elections.

We do significantly better the higher the turnout. This is the case throughout Wandsworth.