Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726 
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Post by Adrian on Oct 25, 2016 23:31:14 GMT
Close races fascinate me - which state will take the prize in 2016?
Recent winners:
2012 FL
2008 MO
2004 WI
2000 FL
1996 KY
1992 GA
1988 WA
1984 MN
1980 MA
1976 OR
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oddroutes
Labour
The wicked flee when no man pursueth
Posts: 359
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Post by oddroutes on Oct 25, 2016 23:55:07 GMT
Georgia, Arizona, Texas, or South Carolina
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Oct 26, 2016 0:22:58 GMT
I have voted Ohio. It is always on a knife edge and is full of the sort of poor white voters who are supporting Trump in large numbers, so I can see his defeat there being narrower than in Arizona or North Carolina.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 26, 2016 13:06:53 GMT
I have voted Ohio. It is always on a knife edge and is full of the sort of poor white voters who are supporting Trump in large numbers, so I can see his defeat there being narrower than in Arizona or North Carolina. It's possible that Trump could win Ohio while handily losing the election overall. Were that to happen it would mark the end of the tiresome post-2004 media narrative about Ohio. I'll go for Georgia as being the only one within 1%. You don't get many real nail biters nowadays; most of the so-called battleground states in 2012 were actually won by quite comfortable margins. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2016 16:53:31 GMT
I'll plump for Utah potential three-way marginal if mcmullin's vote holds up.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 26, 2016 17:17:58 GMT
This might sound bizarre- but if the Cleveland Indians win the World Series, I think Clinton will win Ohio.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2016 19:10:24 GMT
This might sound bizarre- but if the Cleveland Indians win the World Series, I think Clinton will win Ohio. I'll bite. What's your reasoning? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 26, 2016 20:19:51 GMT
This might sound bizarre- but if the Cleveland Indians win the World Series, I think Clinton will win Ohio. I'll bite. What's your reasoning? It's a wacky idea, I admit. But my thinking is thus. There is a pool of primarily white men in that part of Ohio who might not necessarily like Trump but who don't like Clinton. If Cleveland win, the good humour and positivity round there might cause them to stay at home. If Chicago win, their disappointment might translate into anger and therefore a willingness to vote for Trump. Of course, for Chicago it's irrelevant as it's safely Blue and they aren't even the only baseball team in town. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 27, 2016 0:36:00 GMT
Iowa is looking really close at the moment, the polls released this month have had leads of;
SurveyMonkey Trump +4
Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2
Ipsos Clinton +3
Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2
SurveyMonkey Trump +5
Google Consumer Surveys Trump +3
Ipsos Tie
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Clinton +4
Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9
Selzer & Company Trump +4
Ipsos Trump +2
Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 27, 2016 0:36:39 GMT
Iowa is looking really close at the moment, the polls released this month have had leads of; SurveyMonkey Trump +4Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2Ipsos Clinton +3Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2SurveyMonkey Trump +5Google Consumer Surveys Trump +3Ipsos TieThe Times-Picayune/Lucid Clinton +4Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9Selzer & Company Trump +4Ipsos Trump +2Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9so excluding the general bollocks from Google Consumer Surveys it seems quite close |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
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Post by jamie on Oct 27, 2016 9:23:19 GMT
Iowa is looking really close at the moment, the polls released this month have had leads of; SurveyMonkey Trump +4Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2Ipsos Clinton +3Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +2SurveyMonkey Trump +5Google Consumer Surveys Trump +3Ipsos TieThe Times-Picayune/Lucid Clinton +4Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9Selzer & Company Trump +4Ipsos Trump +2Google Consumer Surveys Clinton +9Ipsos are rubbish as well and while not awful, SurveyMonkey are pretty mediocre. That leaves Selzer Trump + 4 and Lucid Clinton + 4. Selzer is definitely the best pollster in Iowa and SurveyMonkey are still OK which suggests Trump is ahead. Should note that Selzer seems to be putting out Trump leaning polls across the board, but since she's considered best pollster in Iowa it may actually be the case everyone else is wrong. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 27, 2016 9:29:08 GMT
I'm not voting because I'm in no position to know this and my outright guess would be the mere re-cycling of third and fourth part views in the media. What use is that to anybody including me? I can't see how most of us can do this unless long term America Watchers and/or frequent and well connected visitors. If relying upon polls for information that is caution enough in itself and anyway could be done by one person as a statistical analysis of all the polls state by state?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2016 10:53:42 GMT
I'll bite. What's your reasoning? It's a wacky idea, I admit. But my thinking is thus. There is a pool of primarily white men in that part of Ohio who might not necessarily like Trump but who don't like Clinton. If Cleveland win, the good humour and positivity round there might cause them to stay at home. If Chicago win, their disappointment might translate into anger and therefore a willingness to vote for Trump. Of course, for Chicago it's irrelevant as it's safely Blue and they aren't even the only baseball team in town. There is a relationship between sporting success & election results - the 1970 GE being one, probably every AB loss & NZ GE !! conventional wisdom is that success helps the incumbent (the country is going in the right direction) & failure the opposite gives a 'feel bad' factor. I guess in this case it will be Obama/ Clinton who will get the feel good boost ? this is probably the right time to point out that England only ever win WCs under a Labour government, so if you want to feel good .....  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2016 11:30:28 GMT
Tbf that was another Labour tradition junked by Blair  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 27, 2016 11:34:55 GMT
Tbf that was another Labour tradition junked by Blair Surely it was junked by Wilson (with Callaghan rather appropriately finishing the job) |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 27, 2016 12:03:39 GMT
Tbf that was another Labour tradition junked by Blair To be fair, Attlee made a bit of a balls of it as well. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2016 13:22:39 GMT
Tbf that was another Labour tradition junked by Blair Well, the 2003 RU WC was on his watch ..... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 27, 2016 15:41:21 GMT
Tbf that was another Labour tradition junked by Blair Well, the 2003 RU WC was on his watch ..... On all occasions that Great Britain have lifted the RL WC it has been under a Tory PM. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2016 15:45:48 GMT
Well, the 2003 RU WC was on his watch ..... On all occasions that Great Britain have lifted the RL WC it has been under a Tory PM. Ironic... whereas as both of Scotlands WC wins where when a scot was PM ... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 27, 2016 15:50:47 GMT
On all occasions that Great Britain have lifted the RL WC it has been under a Tory PM. Ironic... whereas as both of Scotlands WC wins where when a scot was PM ... It seems unlikely but there are huge Tory influences in rugby league, which I'm happy to bore you with if requested. My personal favourite Tory RL moment is the 1959 general election. The Labour MP and the Tory challenger, none other than Michael Jopling, were invited to perform a ceremonial kickoff for each half at Wakefield Trinity. A week later, Jopling received a letter from the RFU, declaring that he had professionalised himself and was banned from rugby union for life. |
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