By-election result summary - September to December 2016

[middleenglander]

There were 32 by-elections during September 2016 with 13 seats (41%) changing hands. There have now been 105 seats contested since the annual elections in May with 39 (37%) changing hands, somewhat higher than the "norm" of around 30%. The September results can be summarised by:

Party	Contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	31	15	9	1	6	10	60%
Labour	30	10	6	3	4	9	60%
Liberal Democrat	25	2	2	8		10	100%
Plaid Cymru	2			1		1
SNP	1	1			1		0%
Green	14
UKIP	26	2	1		1	1	50%
Independent *	6	2	1		1	1	50%
British People	1
Mansfield Independent Forum	1
Mebyon Kernow	1
People First	1
Total	139	32	19	13	13	32	59%

* 6 Independent candidates contested 5 by-elections

Conservatives gained 1 seat from Labour whilst losing 2 to Labour and 4 to Liberal Democrats
- gained Stockton-on-Tees, Grangefield on a ~10½% swing from Labour since 2015 and ~6% since 2011
   two member ward electing 2 Labour in 2015 and 2011, 2 Conservative in 2007 and split in 2005
- lost Allerdale, Cockermouth Christchurch to Labour, with a Liberal Democrat as runner up, on a ~13% swing since 2015 and ~10% since 2011
  two member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, 2011, 2007 and 2003 as well as 2010 by-election but recently on relatively small majorities
- lost North Warwickshire, Arley & Whitacre to Labour on a ~15% swing since 2015 and ~10% since 2011
  three member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, 2 Conservative & 1 Labour in 2011, 3 Conservatives in 2007 and 3 Labour in 2003
- lost Cotswold: Stow to a Liberal Democrat on a 21% swing since 2015
  single member ward (electorate 2,111) created in 2015; late Councillor represented the area at District and County for over 20 years
- lost Dacorum: Adeyfield West to a Liberal Democrat on a ~16% swing since 2015 and ~7½% since 2013 by-election
  two member ward split Conservative / Liberal Democrat in 2015, Conservative / Labour 2011 and 2007 with Liberal Democrat winning 2013 by-election and Conservative 2010 by-election
- lost Suffolk: Hadleigh to a Liberal Democrat on a ~9% swing since 2013 and ~3% since 2009
  single member ward won by Conservative in 2015 (sitting as Independent for 18 months before resigning) but Liberal Democrat in 2009 and 2005 (when Conservative third)
- lost Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central to a Liberal Democrat on a ~20% swing since 2015 and ~11% since 2011
  two member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, split Conservative / Liberal Democrat in 2011, 2 Liberal Democrats 2007 and split Conservative / Independent in 2003

Labour gained 2 seats from Conservatives (Arley & Whitacre and Cockermouth Christchurch) and 1 from SNP whilst losing 1 to Conservatives (Grangefield) and 3 to Liberal Democrats
- gained North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig from SNP although there was a Labour to SNP swing of ~10% since 2012 and ~8% since 2007 but less since 2011 and 2009 by-elections
  four member ward election 2 Labour / 2 SNP in 2012, 2 Labour / 1 SNP / 1 Independent in 2007 with Labour winning both earlier by-elections
- lost Cardiff, Plasnewydd to a Liberal Democrat on a ~8½% swing since 2012 and ~2% since 2008
  four member ward returning Labour in 2012 but Liberal Democrats in 2008 and 2004
- lost North East Derbyshire: Tupton to a Liberal Democrat who had not contested the seat previously
  two member ward returning Labour in 2015, 2011 and 2003 (unopposed) but 2 Independents in 2007 (both 2003 Labour Councillors)
- lost Sheffield: Mosborough to a Liberal Democrat on a ~20% swing since recent years
  three member Metropolitan Borough ward electing Labour every year since 2004 apart from 2008 when 2 Liberal Democrats (including new Councillor) were elected (one a casual vacancy)

Liberal Democrats gained 4 seats from Conservatives, 3 from Labour and 1 from UKIP whilst retaining both seats defended
- gained Adeyfield West, Hadleigh, Stow and Teignmouth Central from Conservatives as well as Mosborough, Plasnewydd and Tupton from Labour
- gained Cornwall: Four Lanes from UKIP not having contested the seat previously 
  single member division (electorate 3,526) created in 2013; a Liberal (not Democrat) polled 17% in 2013

Plaid Cymru gained Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm (electorate 1,176) from an independent who had represented the area on various Councils for some 40 years

[middleenglander]

There were 34 by-elections during October 2016 with 12 (35%) changing hands. There have now been 139 seats contested since the annual elections in May with 51 (37%) changing hands, somewhat higher than the "norm" of around 30%. The October results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	32	13	8	2	5	10	62%
Labour	31	15	9	1	6	10	60%
Liberal Democrat	28	3	3	3		6	100%
Plaid Cymru	3			1		1
SNP	2			1		1
Green	18
UKIP	20	1		1	1	1	0%
Resident Groups *	6	1	1	1		2	100%
Independent **	16	1	1	2		3	100%
English Democrat	1
People before Profit	1
Patients before Profit	1
Women's Equality	1
Total	160	34	22	12	12	34	65%

* East Devon Alliance, Beverley Party, Lincolnshire Independents, Morecambe Bay Independents, Oxted & Limpsfield Residents, Putting Hartlepool First

** 16 Independent candidates contested 10 seats

Conservative gained 1 seat from both Labour and UKIP whilst losing 2 to Liberal Democrats and 1 each to Labour, a Resident Group and an Independent
- gained Kettering Rothwell from Labour on swing of 8½% / 5¼% since 2015 deferred election and 6½% / 3¾% since 2011 
   3 member ward returning 2 Conservative and the late Labour councillor in 2015 and 2011 but 3 Conservatives in 2007
- gained Medway, Strood South from UKIP on a swing of ~8% since 2015 and Labour to Conservative swing of 4% / 5% since 2011
   3 member division returning 2 UKIP / 1 Conservative in 2015, 2 Conservative / 1 Labour in 2011, 3 Conservative in 2007
- lost Braintree, Witham North to Labour on a 5½% / 7% Swing since 2015
   new 2 member ward created in 2015 returning 2 Conservatives although Labour won both seats of same named ward in 2011 on different boundaries
- lost East Riding of Yorkshire, St Mary's to a Liberal Democrat on ~16% swing since 2015 and 13½ /15% swing since 2011
   3 member ward returning 3 Conservative in 2015 and 2011, 1 Liberal Democrat / 1 Conservative / 1 Independent in 2007 whilst 2 Independent / 1 Liberal Democrat in 2003
- lost Poole, Braunstone to a Liberal Democrat on 18½% / 22% swing since 2015 and 18% / 19% since 2011 although subject to minor boundary changes since then
   2 Conservative / 1 Liberal Democrat in 2015, 3 Liberal Democrat in 2011 and 2007 as well a Liberal Democrat in 2010 by-election but 2 Liberal Democrat / 1 Conservative in 2003
- lost Tandridge, Limpsfield to Oxted & Limpsfield Residents with a majority of nearly 20% who contested seat for the first time
   2 member ward with elections in 2 out of 3 years returning a Conservative every previous election since 2002
- lost Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham to an Independent who had a 5½% majority contesting the seat for the first time
   2 member ward returning 2 Conservatives in 2015, 2011 and 2007 along with a Conservative in a 2004 by-election but 2 Independents in 2003

Labour gained 1 seat from Conservative (Braintree, Witham North) whilst losing 1 each to Conservative (Kettering, Rothwell), Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru, SNP, UKIP and Independent
- lost Highland, Culloden & Ardersier to a Liberal Democrat who overtook SNP on the final round following a recount with Labour coming 7th of 9 candidates.
   4 member ward electing 1 Independent / 1 SNP / 1 Labour / 1 Liberal Democrat in both 2012 and 2007
- lost Neath Port Talbot, Braengwrach to Plaid Cymru on a swing of ~14% since 2012, 12% since 2008 but 6% Plaid Cymru to Labour since 2004
   single member ward (electorate 1,453) won by Labour in 2012 and 2008 but Plaid Cymru in 2004
- lost Glasgow, Garscadden / Scotstounhill to SNP on a swing of ~19% since both 2012 and 2007
   4 member ward electing 3 Labour / 1 SNP in both 2012 and 2007
- lost Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour to UKIP on a swing of ~12% since May and 15½% since 2015, the first time UKIP contested the seat
   3 member ward returning 3 Labour in 2012 and Labour in both 2014 and 2015 but UKIP in 2016
- lost Conwy, Abergele Pensarn to an Independent who had not contested the seat before with Labour coming 3rd behind another Independent who was second in 2014 by-election
   single member ward (electorate around 1,900) won by Labour in 2004, 2012 and 2014 by-election but by a Conservative in 2008

Liberal Democrats gained East Riding of Yorkshire, St Mary's and Poole, Braunstone from Conservatives and Highland, Culloden & Ardersier from Labour
Plaid Cymru gained Neath Port Talbot, Braengwrach from Labour
SNP gained Glasgow, Garscadden / Scotstounhill from Labour
UKIP gained Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour from Labour and lost Medway, Strood South to Conservative
Oxted & Limpsfield Residents gained Tandridge, Limpsfield from Conservative
Independents gained Conwy, Abergele Pensarn from Labour and  Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham from Conservative

[middleenglander]

There have been by-elections for 139 seats since the annual elections in May with 51 (37%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	134	56	35	7	21	42	63%
Labour	123	46	30	8	16	38	65%
Liberal Democrat	111	10	10	21		31	100%
Plaid Cymru	11	2	2	2		4	100%
SNP	7	2		2	2	2	0%
Green	64			1		1
UKIP	86	9	4	3	5	7	44%
Independent *	56	13	6	3	7	9	46%
Other	35	1	1	4		5	100%
Total	627	139	88	51	51	139	63%

* 56 Independent candidates contested 42 seats.

Conservatives gained 7 seats: 4 from Labour, 2 from Independents and 1 from UKIP
- whilst losing 21 seats: 12 to Liberal Democrats, 3 to Labour, 3 to Resident Groups (in Farnham and Limpsfield), 2 to Independents and 1 to Green

Labour gained 8 seats: 3 from Conservatives, 2 from SNP, 2 from UKIP and 1 from Independent
- whilst losing 16 seats: 5 to Liberal Democrats,  4 to Conservatives, 3 to UKIP, 2 to SNP and 1 each to Independent and Plaid Cymru.

Liberal Democrats gained 21 seats: 12 from Conservatives, 5 from Labour and 2 each from Independent & UKIP

Plaid Cymru gained a seat from both Labour and an Independent
SNP gained 2 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 seat to them
Green gained a seat from the Conservatives
UKIP gained 3 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 to Labour, 2 to Liberal Democrats and 1 to Conservatives
Independents gained 2 seats from Conservatives and 1 from Labour whilst losing 2 to Conservatives, 2 to Liberal Democrats along with 1 each to Labour, Plaid Cymru and No Description
Farnham Residents gained 2 from Conservatives, Oxted & Limpsfield Residents 1 from Conservative together with No Description gaining 1 from an Independent

 

[middleenglander]

There were 28 by-elections during November, including one where a Conservative was returned unopposed, with 7 seats (25%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	27	11	11	5		16	100%
Labour	26	11	8		3	8	73%
Liberal Democrat	24	3	2		1	2	67%
Plaid Cymru	2			1		1
SNP	4	1		1	1	1	0%
Green	11	1			1		0%
UKIP	15
Independent *	5	1			1		0%
English Democrat	1
Newcastle First	1
No Description	1
Total	117	28	21	7	7	28	75%

* 5 Independent candidates contested 4 seats

Conservatives: made 5 gains, 2 from Labour and 1 each from Greens, Liberal Democrat and SNP:
- gained Aberdeenshire, Banff & District from SNP on a first preference vote swing of some 20% since 2012 and approaching 15% since 2007
   three member ward returning 2 SNP, 1 Conservative in 2012 and 1 SNP, 1 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat in 2007.
- gained Aberdeenshire, Inverurie & District from Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent (supporting SNP) on a first preference vote swing of circa 12% since 2012 and 9% since 2007 
   four member ward returning 2 SNP, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat in 2012 and 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 SNP, 1 Conservative in 2007
- gained Bath & North East Somerset, Abbey from a Green on a swing of ~ 3½% / 4½% since 2015 but ~1% / 1½% Conservative to Green since 2011
  two member ward returning 1 Conservative, 1 Green in 2015,  1 Liberal Democrat,1 Conservative in 2011 but 2 Conservative in 2007 and 2003
- gained Greenwich, Eltham North  from Labour on a swing of ~ ½% / 1% since 2014 but a swing to Labour of ~3½% since 2010
   three member ward returning 1 Conservative, 2 Labour in 2014 but 3 Conservative in 2010, 2006 and 2002 as well as a Conservative in 2005 by-election
- gained Pendle, Reedley from Labour on a swing to Labour of ½% since May but Labour to Conservative 8% since 2015, 3% since 2014 and 5% since 2012
  three member ward returning Conservative in 2016, Labour in 2011 to 2015 but Conservative each election from 2002 through to 2010.

Apart from losing 2 seats to the Conservatives, Labour also a seat to Plaid Cymru:
- lost Cardiff, Grangetown to Plaid Cymru on a swing of around 5% since 2012 and a less meaningful circa 3% since 2008
   three member ward returning 3 Labour in 2012 (when Plaid Cymru second) and 3 Liberal Democrats in 2008 and 2004 (with Labour second in both years).

The seventh seat to change hands was an SNP gain from an Independent:
- gained Angus, Arbroath East & Lunan from a retiring Independent on a first preference SNP to Conservative swing (if meaningful) of 10½% SNP to Conservative since 2012 and 6½% since 2007
  four member ward returning 2 SNP, 1 Independent, 1 Conservative in both 2012 and 2007.

[middleenglander]

There were 21 by-elections during December with 11 (52%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	21	11	4	1	7	5	36%
Labour	18	4	3	1	1	4	75%
Liberal Democrat	15	1	1	4		5	100%
SNP	2	2	1		1	1	50%
Green	5
UKIP	12	1			1		0%
Independent *	8	1	1	5		6	100%
BNP front	1
No Description	1
Tower Hamlets 1st		1			1
Total	83	21	10	11	11	21	48%

* 8 Independents contested 7 seats

Conservatives gained 1 seat from UKIP but lost 7 seats, 4 to Liberal Democrats, 2 to Independents and 1 to Labour:
- gained Dorset, Ferndown from UKIP on a swing of ~ 11½% since 2013 although with a swing to UKIP of around 1½% since September 2016 by-election as well as 2009 
  2 member County Council Division where a Conservative retained a seat 3 months ago but returned 1 UKIP, 1 Conservative in 2013 although 2 Conservatives in 2009 and 2005
- lost Chichester, Southbourne to a Liberal Democrat on a swing of some 24% since both 2015 and 2011
  3 member ward which returned 3 Conservatives in 2015, 2011 and 2007 although 2 Conservatives, 1 Liberal Democrat in 2003
- lost Maldon, Maldon West to an Independent on a notional swing of 3% / 4% to Conservative since 2015 but notional 7% / 8% from Conservative since 2011
  2 member ward which returned 1 Independent / 1 Conservative in 2015 and 2011 but 2 Conservatives in 2007 (unopposed) and 2003
- lost St Edmundsbury, Moreton Hall to an Independent who regained a seat held since 2003 but lost in 2015 on a swing of over 20% since 2015 and around 12% since 2011
  3 member ward returning 3 Conservatives in 2015, 1 Independent / 2 Conservative in 2011 and 2007 and 2 Conservative / 1 Labour (now the Independent) in 2003
- lost Taunton Deane, Blackdown to a Liberal Democrat, also the County Councillor for the area, on a swing approaching 40% since 2007, 2011 and 2015
  single member ward reportedly never returning other than Conservative since 1973; Blackdown accounts for approaching 25% of County Council Division held by new District Councillor since 2005
- lost Teingbridge, Bovey to a Liberal Democrat, former Councillor elected in 2007 who polled well ahead of running mates, on a swing of ~12% since 2015 and 2011 and 18% since 2013 by-election
  3 member ward returning 3 Conservatives in 2015 and 2011, 1 Liberal Democrat / 2 Conservatives in 2007 and Independent / 2 Conservatives in 2003
- lost Teignbridge, Chudleigh to a Liberal Democrat, who had been elected an Independent Councillor in 2011 and who was a strong runner up in 2015
  2 member ward electing 2 Conservatives in 2015, 1 Conservative / 1 Independent in 2011, 1 Independent / 1 Conservative in 2007 and 1 Independent / 1 Liberal Democrat in 2003
- lost Telford & Wrekin, Horsehay & Lightmoor to Labour on a swing of around 12% since 2015 and some 6% since 2011
  2 member ward that elected 2 Conservatives in 2015, 2011 and 2003 but 1 Independent / 1 Conservative in 2007 although Conservative gained the Independent seat in a 2008 by-election

Labour gained Telford & Wrekin, Horsehay & Lightmoor from the Conservatives but
- lost Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley to an Independent who polled 65% share with Labour coming 4th out of 4 candidates; the former councillor was sitting as an Independent#
  2 member ward electing an Independent in 2015,  Labour in 2014, 2011, 2006, 2003 and 2002, Liberal Democrat in 2012 by-election and 2010 and Conservative in 2008 by-election and 2007

Apart from gaining Maldon, Maldon West and St Edmuundsbury, Moreton Hall from the Conservatives and Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley from Labour, Independents also
- gained Angus, Carnoustie & District from SNP on a notional swing of ~6¼% since a 2011 by-election
   3 member ward which returned 2 Independent / 1 SNP in 2012, an Independent in a 2011 by-election and 2 SNP / 1 Labour in 2007
- gained Tower Hamlets, Whitechapel from Tower Hamlets First sitting as Independent on a small notional swing to Labour of less than 2% since 2014
  3 member ward returning 3 Tower Hamlets First in 2014 although on different boundaries 3 Labour were elected in 2010  and 2002 but 2 Respect, 1 Labour in 2006

[middleenglander]

There were 188 seats contested in by-elections since the annual elections in May through to the end of the year with 69 (37%) changing hands. England had 156 seats contested with 52 (33%) changing hands, Scotland 13 and 10 (77%)  whilst Wales had 19 and 7 (37%).  The results across the UK can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	182	78	50	13	28	63	64%
Labour	167	61	41	9	20	50	67%
Liberal Democrat	150	14	13	25	1	38	93%
Plaid Cymru	13	2	2	3		5	100%
SNP	13	5	1	3	4	4	20%
Green	80	1		1	1	1
UKIP	113	10	4	3	6	7	40%
Independent *	69	15	7	8	8	15	47%
Other	40	2	1	4	1	5	50%
Total	827	188	119	69	69	188	63%

* 69 Independent candidates contested 53 seats.

The Conservatives contested 97% of all seats, Labour 89%, Liberal Democrats 80%, UKIP 60% and Greens 43%.  SNP contested 100% of the Scottish seats with Plaid Cymru 68% of those in Wales.

Conservatives gained 13 seats: 6 from Labour, 2 each from UKIP and Independents and 1 each from Liberal Democrats, Green and SNP
- whilst losing 28 seats: 16 to Liberal Democrats, 4 each to Labour and Independents, 3 to Resident Groups (in Farnham and Limpsfield) and 1 to Green

Labour gained 9 seats: 4 from Conservatives, 2 from SNP, 2 from UKIP and 1 from Independent
- whilst losing 20 seats: 6 to Conservatives, 5 to Liberal Democrats,  3 to UKIP and 2 to each Plaid Cymru, SNP and Independents.

Liberal Democrats lost 1 seat to Conservatives and gained 25 seats: 16 from Conservatives, 5 from Labour and 2 each from Independent & UKIP

Plaid Cymru gained 2 seats from Labour and 1 from an Independent
SNP gained 2 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 seat to them along with gaining 1 from and Independent whilst also losing 1 to Conservative and 1 to an Independent
Greens gained a seat from the Conservatives whilst also losing 1
UKIP gained 3 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 each to Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats
Independents gained 4 seats from Conservatives, 2 from Labour, 1 each from SNP and Tower Hamlets First
- whilst losing 2 each to Conservatives and Liberal Democrats along with 1 each to Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and No Description
Farnham Residents gained 2 from Conservatives, Oxted & Limpsfield Residents 1 from Conservative together with No Description gaining 1 from an Independent
- with Tower Hamlets First not defending a seat won by an Independent.

 

[Terry Weldon]

Thanks for these very useful summaries.