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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 12, 2016 11:36:41 GMT
It isn't an unreasonable thing to say; but it's just pointless. The SNP need to figure out a way around anti-nat voting. I'm not sure there is one, unless they can get people properly interested in Council elections (and I doubt that would be in their interest just now). I've just seen the transfers - on the crucial stage, the Tory was on 658, while the SNP had 1,226 and Labour had 1,118. When the Tory was eliminated, 183 votes came to Labour and 51 to the SNP. So this "Tory-Labour alliance" was endorsed by just 27.8% of the Tory voters. Possibly even less - how many transfers had the Conservatives picked up by then? This also means the eventual winner had just 41.9% of all valid votes originally cast which is somewhat different from the "you need at least 50% to win" claimed by the system's advocates. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2016 11:36:52 GMT
It isn't an unreasonable thing to say; but it's just pointless. The SNP need to figure out a way around anti-nat voting. I'm not sure there is one, unless they can get people properly interested in Council elections (and I doubt that would be in their interest just now). I've just seen the transfers - on the crucial stage, the Tory was on 658, while the SNP had 1,226 and Labour had 1,118. When the Tory was eliminated, 183 votes came to Labour and 51 to the SNP. So this "Tory-Labour alliance" was endorsed by just 27.8% of the Tory voters. ...which also suggests that the SNP aren't taking enough of the Green vote in earlier transfers. Besides, I'd be interested to see the reverse situation; i.e. where Labour are eliminated before the Tories. I'd imagine a fairly equal split between Tories and SNP. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Aug 12, 2016 11:47:21 GMT
I've just seen the transfers - on the crucial stage, the Tory was on 658, while the SNP had 1,226 and Labour had 1,118. When the Tory was eliminated, 183 votes came to Labour and 51 to the SNP. So this "Tory-Labour alliance" was endorsed by just 27.8% of the Tory voters. Possibly even less - how many transfers had the Conservatives picked up by then? This also means the eventual winner had just 41.9% of all valid votes originally cast which is somewhat different from the "you need at least 50% to win" claimed by the system's advocates. Has anyone ever claimed that? What is claimed is that you need 50% of those who express a preference. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 12, 2016 11:58:37 GMT
The rhetoric in the AV referendum did not tend to draw that distinction. Instead it focused on a need for 50% of voters or even of constituents.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Aug 12, 2016 13:05:10 GMT
There was also a town/parish council by-election in North Bradley, Trowbridge, Wiltshire. This was won by Labour with 102 votes & a candidate with no description got 42. Not sure if this was a gain or a hold, think it's a gain. Must hasten to add I hold no store by town/parish elections, I post this purely for reasons of completeness. Better inform Maomentum about it. |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 12, 2016 15:22:54 GMT
Pretty sure tactical preferencing is a thing; supporters of A give 2nd preferences to C to stop B winning, and all that. No, tactical voting under STV/AV would mean supporters of A giving first preferences to C - the rationale being the voter believes that C has a better chance of beating B in the last two than A and so tries to engineer the better line-up. (They don't have to have thought it through completely; they may just vote in line with a particular campaign line.) However here given past results it looks a straightforward case of the third placed party's voters preferring Labour to the SNP. Anyone got the full transfer sheet and the ballot paper order for 2012? It would be interesting to see if the Socialist Labour candidate got first preferences simply by being higher up the ballot than the Labour candidate. QUOTA 1027 I II III IV V VI VII VIII
BAIN LD 246 272 283 289 300 330 331 X
BROWN SNP 1624 S
CLARKSON LAB 1374 S
COCHRANE SOCLAB 81 92 112 123 X
KERR TUSC 51 61 65 X
MAGUIRE SNP 265 695 704 713 730 769 770 840 E
MCPHEE C 614 634 652 653 657 682 683 773 X
O'NEILL LAB 691 720 950 958 995 1039 S
OWEN IND 187 197 202 216 231 X
S = Surplus transfer X = Eliminated
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 12, 2016 22:23:40 GMT
North Ayrshire, Irvine West - Labour gain from SNP at stage 6based on first preferences | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,164 | 37.5% | +0.7% | +5.9% | Labour | 1,029 | 33.1% | -7.1% | -9.0% | Conservative | 639 | 20.6% | +8.6% | +9.3% | Socialist Labour | 131 | 4.2% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Green | 94 | 3.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 48 | 1.5% | -3.2% | -4.8% | Independent |
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| -3.6% |
| TUSC |
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| -1.0% |
| Solidarity |
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| -7.3% | Total votes | 3,105 |
| 60% | 44% |
Swing Labour to SNP 3.9% since 2012 and ~7½% since 2007
Council now 12 Labour, 11 SNP, 6 Independent, 1 Conservative
Renfrewshire, Renfrew South & Gallowhill - SNP gain from Labourbased on first preferences | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,309 | 47.8% | +4.5% | +9.7% | Labour | 1,012 | 36.9% | -11.2% | -5.9% | Conservative | 366 | 13.4% | +8.8% | +8.1% | Liberal Democrat | 53 | 1.9% | -0.0% | -2.6% | Socialist |
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| -2.1% | -1.6% | Independent |
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| -5.4% | Solidarity |
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| -2.3% | Total votes | 2,740 |
| 65% | 50% |
Swing Labour to SNP ~8% since both 2012 and 2007
Council now 21 Labour, 16 SNP, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Other
Worcestershire, Ombersley - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 956 | 63.2% | +15.3% | -4.6% | -1.0% | Liberal Democrat | 224 | 14.8% | +9.7% | -1.8% | -2.8% | UKIP | 212 | 14.0% | -19.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent * | 120 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -8.6% | -5.9% | -18.2% | Green |
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| -5.1% | -9.7% |
| Total votes | 1,512 |
| 56% | 45% | 29% |
* Independent candidate was UKIP candidate in 2013 Most meaningful swing UKIP to Conservative ~17% since 2013 Council now 32 Conservative, 11 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 Green, 2 UKIP, 2 Independent Health Concern, 1 Resident
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2016 0:10:05 GMT
There was also a town/parish council by-election in North Bradley, Trowbridge, Wiltshire. This was won by Labour with 102 votes & a candidate with no description got 42. Not sure if this was a gain or a hold, think it's a gain. Must hasten to add I hold no store by town/parish elections, I post this purely for reasons of completeness. Better inform Maomentum about it. Maomentum. Like it. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 16, 2016 7:52:05 GMT
Better inform Maomentum about it. Maomentum. Like it. But will it be banned under the 'New and Kinder Forum' policy like Cameroon, Tony Bliar, Limp Dims and any horrid rudeness or slur, always excepting Kippers and all things UKIP of course. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2016 10:31:57 GMT
Better inform Maomentum about it. Maomentum. Like it. You will also appreciate Sharon's current Twitter handle, then  |
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,514 
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Post by Sharon on Aug 16, 2016 13:16:36 GMT
You will also appreciate Sharon 's current Twitter handle, then Mine's the feline version - Miaowmentum  |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Aug 29, 2016 11:36:54 GMT
Renfrew South and Gallowhill – Renfrewshire – Eddie Grady (Labour) died. He was a councillor since 2007. He was the Depute Finance Convenor on the Council and the convenor of the local area committee.2012: Lab 1229/869, SNP 1258/629, Con 197, SSP 90, LD 86 (elected: SNP, Lab, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1054, SNP 805, Con 235 for one seat) 2007: Lab 1452/896, SNP 1339/748, Ind 294, Con 291, LD 246, Solidarity 127, SSP 90 (elected: Lab, SNP, Lab on 8th count; final count Lab 1162, SNP 962) Mark Dougan (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) Edward Grady (Scottish Labour Party) Jim Paterson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) Ross Stalker (Scottish Liberal Democrats) I'm just catching up with results today and noticed this one. Ross Stalker was leader of the Edinburgh University Lib Dems while I was there, and instrumental in encouraging my 2010 defection. Coupled with the upcoming Coatbridge North by-election, this autumn is turning into a compilation album of my personal political history. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 29, 2016 11:44:50 GMT
Renfrew South and Gallowhill – Renfrewshire – Eddie Grady (Labour) died. He was a councillor since 2007. He was the Depute Finance Convenor on the Council and the convenor of the local area committee.2012: Lab 1229/869, SNP 1258/629, Con 197, SSP 90, LD 86 (elected: SNP, Lab, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1054, SNP 805, Con 235 for one seat) 2007: Lab 1452/896, SNP 1339/748, Ind 294, Con 291, LD 246, Solidarity 127, SSP 90 (elected: Lab, SNP, Lab on 8th count; final count Lab 1162, SNP 962) Mark Dougan (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) Edward Grady (Scottish Labour Party) Jim Paterson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) Ross Stalker (Scottish Liberal Democrats) I'm just catching up with results today and noticed this one. Ross Stalker was leader of the Edinburgh University Lib Dems while I was there, and instrumental in encouraging my 2010 defection. Coupled with the upcoming Coatbridge North by-election, this autumn is turning into a compilation album of my personal political history. Which one, the one to them or from them? |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Aug 29, 2016 12:35:42 GMT
Both. |
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