European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 29, 2020 4:16:40 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level?
Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 29, 2020 5:02:09 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 29, 2020 6:37:38 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? North Yorkshire is another: all the Labour NYCC councillors are from Scarborough. Labour actually have county seats in three Leicestershire districts: Blaby (Braunstone), Charnwood (Loughborough) and NW Leics (Coalville). Not sure about Lincolnshire.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 29, 2020 6:46:43 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? North Yorkshire is another: all the Labour NYCC councillors are from Scarborough.Labour actually have county seats in three Leicestershire districts: Blaby (Braunstone), Charnwood (Loughborough) and NW Leics (Coalville). Not sure about Lincolnshire. Labour have a councillor in the two-member Selby Barlby division, though as the Conservatives topped the poll here this does not show on your map In Lincolnshire Labour have two councillors in East Lindsey (in Louth South and in Mablethorpe) in addition to the four in Lincoln
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2020 9:24:30 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Quite possibly Adur as well.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 29, 2020 9:25:17 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Worthing is in West Sussex.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 29, 2020 9:25:50 GMT
I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Quite possibly Adur as well. Also in West Sussex.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2020 9:26:57 GMT
I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Worthing is in West Sussex. Though this still applies there, Crawley being the only district that elected Labour county councillors in 2017.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 29, 2020 9:39:02 GMT
I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Quite possibly Adur as well. Labour only need a tiny swing to take Worthing East, and were also within 10 points in 2017 in Broadwater and Worthing Pier. On the other hand, they were well beaten in all five Adur divisions.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2020 9:43:12 GMT
Noticed that looking at the results, but Adur district council results in 2018 were rather more hopeful for them.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 29, 2020 10:01:55 GMT
Noticed that looking at the results, but Adur district council results in 2018 were rather more hopeful for them. The trouble for Labour here is that each of the five wards they have won in 2016 and/or 2018 are split between five different county divisions where their effect is diluted by much weaker areas. The best bet I suppose is Shoreham North which includes Southlands (won very narrowly by Labour last May) and part of the safer St Marys but it also includes the strongly Tory Buckingham ward which is likely to outvote the Labour areas. The same applies to Eastbrook (Southwick), Mash Barn (Lancing) and Cokeham (Sompting). Whereas in Worthing Labour enjoys a much more efficient concentration of support in the centre and East of the town
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Post by David Ashforth on Mar 29, 2020 10:04:59 GMT
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Post by froome on Mar 29, 2020 10:25:55 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? I would expect East Sussex to leave that list in 2021, with Worthing joining in. Except that Worthing is in West Sussex.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2020 11:12:50 GMT
As already pointed out further up this page, it always pays to read the thread first
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 29, 2020 12:14:56 GMT
Looking at that makes me wonder how many county councils there are where Labour's representation is all from one district? Surrey and, while it existed, Buckinghamshire because we only have one seat. Devon, where we only have councillors even at district level in two authorities, Cambridgeshire which is a real black spot for the party outside Cambridge itself, East Sussex where support almost entirely confined to Hastings and Hampshire where everything outside Basingstoke was lost in 2017. Others I suppose might be Lincolnshire which, Lincoln and the two unitaries aside, has to be one of the most right-wing counties in England, and possibly Leicestershire where Labour's support, where it exists, is mostly too scattered to win anything above district level? Any that are wrong/that I've missed? Or any that we expect to see added in 2021? In East Sussex, Labour have only won one county seat outside Hastings since Brighton & Hove became a unitary in 1997 (Bexhill North), winning it twice before being abolished in 2005.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 29, 2020 13:52:18 GMT
Huntingdonshire 2018. C 30 LD 7 St Neots Ind 6 Ind 5 Lab 4. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2018 were: St Neots East: Lab/C St Neots Priory Park and Little Paxton: 1Ind/2C Sawtry: C/Ind Huntingdonshire has moved off the thirds cycle and its next election will be in 2022.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 29, 2020 15:40:05 GMT
Huntingdonshire 2018. C 30 LD 7 St Neots Ind 6 Ind 5 Lab 4. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2018 were: St Neots East: Lab/C St Neots Priory Park and Little Paxton: 1Ind/2C Sawtry: C/Ind Huntingdonshire has moved off the thirds cycle and its next election will be in 2022. Those seem like two really random places to elect Labour councillors
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 29, 2020 16:24:24 GMT
Those seem like two really random places to elect Labour councillors Not if you look at the Census figures they aren't. Huntingdon North is half council estate, and St Neots East also has a lot of social rented homes and a population in routine/semi-routine occupations.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 30, 2020 13:50:19 GMT
Fenland 2019. C 26 (-8) Ind 10 (+7) LD 2 Grn 1 (+1). Changes based on 2015: C gain from Ind Waterlees Village (1) Grn gain from Ind March West (1) Ind gain from C Benwick, Coates and Eastrea (1) Elm and Christchurch (2) Manea March East (1) Peckover Slade Lode Ind gain from LD March North (1) LD gain from C Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary (1) Bassenhally, Birch, Clarkson, Doddington and Wimblington, Medworth, St Andrews, Staithe, Stonald, The Mills and Wenneye were uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Benwick, Coates and Eastrea: C/Ind March East: 2C/1Ind March North: 1Ind/2C March West: 2C/1Grn Waterlees Village: C/Ind Next up should be Darlington, after which I intend to concentrate on getting Cambridgeshire completely up to date. Once that's done it will likely be back to the 2017 maps. This is of course subject to change at any point.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 30, 2020 14:10:38 GMT
Two in one day. Coronavirus isn't all bad
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