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Post by courtenay on Dec 16, 2019 9:07:25 GMT
In the hopefully temporary absence of the Boundary Assistant site, are there any easily colourable ward maps around? Yes. There are loads of SVG ward maps on Wikimedia Commons. How many are up to date? Ward boundaries change all the time.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 16, 2019 11:28:14 GMT
Yes. There are loads of SVG ward maps on Wikimedia Commons. How many are up to date? Ward boundaries change all the time. Probably most of them. The maps on LEAP are also SVG and guaranteed up to date to the most recent election featured.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 16, 2019 13:53:54 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 16, 2019 22:26:20 GMT
i always thought you were a Lib Dem!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 18, 2019 21:37:39 GMT
Swing and Trend
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 18, 2019 22:41:35 GMT
This one is fun. Swing from 2010 to 2019
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 18, 2019 23:46:27 GMT
It's interesting that Nottinghamshire simultaneously has one of the seats which swung most to the Conservatives with one which swung to Labour.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,107
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Post by Jack on Dec 19, 2019 21:24:28 GMT
Another 2010 to 2019 comparison here, this with the party that came second in each constituency:
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Post by johnloony on Dec 21, 2019 11:16:46 GMT
This one is fun. Swing from 2010 to 2019 Looking at the trends on this map and assuming that Boris will able to absorb the Brexit Party vote more or less fully there's big swathes of Labour seats in the North East, Yorkshire and South Wales set to fall to the Tories at the next election without needing any further national swing. The only obvious Tory seats set to fall to Labour I can see are the four Tory Central London seats I think that is more likely that the large Brexit Party votes in the north of England will go back to the Labour Party next time, after the Labour Party has elected a more sensible leader. Tactical voting in the 2019 election squeezed the Brexit party down to the bone already, so that any residual votes for the Brexit party were people who would never vote Conservative anyway; they are probably habitual Labour voters who supported leave.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2019 11:33:17 GMT
This one is fun. Swing from 2010 to 2019 Looking at the trends on this map and assuming that Boris will able to absorb the Brexit Party vote more or less fully there's big swathes of Labour seats in the North East, Yorkshire and South Wales set to fall to the Tories at the next election without needing any further national swing. The only obvious Tory seats set to fall to Labour I can see are the four Tory Central London seats Don't assume swings will carry on forever. While North East Derbyshire will stay blue next time I don't think West Bromwich is as inclined to stick with the Tories. Seats along the M1 like Bolsover are more likely to continue to weaken for Labour because of the influx of commuters.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 21, 2019 11:49:02 GMT
This chap is a star - Motorways and Trains:-
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 21, 2019 12:51:24 GMT
I think that is more likely that the large Brexit Party votes in the north of England will go back to the Labour Party next time, after the Labour Party has elected a more sensible leader. Tactical voting in the 2019 election squeezed the Brexit party down to the bone already, so that any residual votes for the Brexit party were people who would never vote Conservative anyway; they are probably habitual Labour voters who supported leave. I don't know. It could be the reverse, that voting for the Brexit party in this year's elections or UKIP in previous years could be a "gateway drug" to voting for Boris Johnson's very Brexity Conservative party. Labour Leavers went back to Labour in 2017 because both sides were promising to "honour the referendum" whilst having leaders who campaigned for Remain. Things look very different now I doubt it; the only way I see Brexit has an impact on anything like a full-term Parliament is if you’ve had a worst case scenario period then there’ll be a blowback against the Conservatives who now well and truly own what happens next.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 21, 2019 17:40:30 GMT
This one is fun. Swing from 2010 to 2019 Have South Ribble and Leeds Central swapped? And shouldn't Ribble Valley be a lighter shade as well?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 21, 2019 18:16:51 GMT
It's Ribble Valley and South Ribble which swapped because they were in a different order on my 2010 sheet down to the stupid list I copied from listing it as Ribble South. Not sure what happened to Leeds Central. It should have a swing to Labour of about 5%. Slip of the mouse I guess..
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 21, 2019 23:07:56 GMT
Elmbridge 2019. Changes based on 2016 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: LD gain from C Weybridge Riverside Residents gain from C Esher (Esher Residents Assoc) Weybridge St George's Hill (Weybridge and St George's Inds) Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Esher is 2C/1RA and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Hersham Village is 2C/1RA and the Hersham Village Society are defending in 2020. Molesey East is 2RA/1C and the Molesey Residents Association are defending in 2020. Walton Central is 2RA/1C and the Walton Society are defending in 2020. Weybridge St George's Hill is 2RA/1C and the Weybridge and St George's Independents are defending in 2020.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 22, 2019 0:08:32 GMT
General Election Maps from 1685 to 2019
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 22, 2019 21:39:33 GMT
Wyre Forest 2019. C 14 Health Concern 8 Ind 5 LD 3 Lab 2 Grn 1. Changes based on 2015, 2016 and 2018: Grn gain from C Blakebrook and Habberley South (1) Health Concern gain from C Franche and Habberley North (2) Lickhill Health Concern gain from Lab Areley Kings and Riverside (2) Franche and Habberley North (1) Ind gain from C Bewdley and Rock (1) Ind gain from Lab Broadwaters (1) Lab gain from C Blakebrook and Habberley South (1) LD gain from Lib Offmore and Comberton (1) Wyre Forest has now moved off the thirds cycle and its next election will be in 2023. Split wards in May were: Areley Kings and Riverside: 2 Health Concern/1C Bewdley and Rock: 2C/1Ind Blakebrook and Habberley South: C/Grn/Lab Broadwaters: Ind/Health Concern/Lab Mitton: 1 Health Concern/2C
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 24, 2019 10:48:13 GMT
No of deposits saved per constituency, 2010-9
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 27, 2019 11:30:44 GMT
Blackburn with Darwen 2019. Changes based on 2018 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: LD gain from Lab Darwen East Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Billinge and Beardwood is 2Lab/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Darwen East is 2LD/1Lab and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2020.
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 29, 2019 23:58:46 GMT
Reigate and Bansteead 2019. C 29 Grn 6 LD 3 Nork Res Assoc 3 Tattenhams Res Assoc 3 Ind 1. New ward boundaries. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Reigate is 2C/1Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2020.
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