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Post by John Chanin on Jun 9, 2016 9:28:21 GMT
I was just looking for these, and realised that I don't have them. I know I used to, but they have gone missing - I only have the electorate changes. Could anyone please point me at where I can find a spreadsheet?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2016 10:59:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2016 17:13:22 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 10, 2016 17:21:55 GMT
I was just looking for these, and realised that I don't have them. I know I used to, but they have gone missing - I only have the electorate changes. Could anyone please point me at where I can find a spreadsheet? There's also this page: www.election.demon.co.uk/notional79.html |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 10, 2016 19:20:59 GMT
Thanks very much to you all.
I know these notionals weren't very good, partly because of the major boundary changes, and that's probably why I mislaid them at some point.
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Harry Hayfield
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Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 10, 2016 20:01:39 GMT
Thanks very much to you all. I know these notionals weren't very good, partly because of the major boundary changes, and that's probably why I mislaid them at some point. Indeed they were not. For instance Birmingham, Erdington (Labour GAIN in 1983) on a swing in England of 4.27% from Lab to Con. A likely story! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 10, 2016 20:24:00 GMT
Thanks very much to you all. I know these notionals weren't very good, partly because of the major boundary changes, and that's probably why I mislaid them at some point. Indeed they were not. For instance Birmingham, Erdington (Labour GAIN in 1983) on a swing in England of 4.27% from Lab to Con. A likely story! Some of the notionals may have been out, but not that one. The 1979 Erdington was very close (Lab maj 1.6%). Some land but no electors were added. 8,300 electors were removed, all in the western section of the constituency - the Star City area, and Upper Witton. Both are fairly working class, council estate areas. They must have been significantly more Labour than Conservative even in 1979. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 10, 2016 20:46:00 GMT
Thanks very much to you all. I know these notionals weren't very good, partly because of the major boundary changes, and that's probably why I mislaid them at some point. Indeed they were not. For instance Birmingham, Erdington (Labour GAIN in 1983) on a swing in England of 4.27% from Lab to Con. A likely story! There may have been a national swing to the Conservatives in 1983, but there was actually a swing of about 2% to Labour if you take the Birmingham seats only. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2016 20:58:18 GMT
Yes, there was a small pro-Labour swing in other Birmingham constituencies in 1983. In Edgbaston it was half of one per cent, even with Labour in third place. Similar situations in Liverpool (Broadgreen in particular) and Manchester. However, there were only 10 seats anywhere in which Labour increased their share of the vote.
Glasgow Cathcart was pretty much a case of Labour having to gain their seat all over again.
Crewe and Nantwich strikes me as a more interesting "Lab gain" than Erdington.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 10, 2016 21:53:13 GMT
Indeed they were not. For instance Birmingham, Erdington (Labour GAIN in 1983) on a swing in England of 4.27% from Lab to Con. A likely story! There may have been a national swing to the Conservatives in 1983, but there was actually a swing of about 2% to Labour if you take the Birmingham seats only. Probably due more to Conservative voters moving out of Birmingham to the surrounding counties rather than a direct switch in voting intention of voters and an increase in EM voters. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 11, 2016 10:17:24 GMT
Keighley saw a smallish swing (on the notionals) to Labour in 1983. It's probable that Bob Cryer would have held the 'old Keighley'.
The notional 1979 result for Calder Valley is iffy. If you deconstruct the notional/actual for CV and Halifax you're left with too few voters in Brighouse/Shelf. The BBC/ITN book isn't illuminating. Robert Waller's book is far better but he probably didn't have time/resources to calculate alternative notionals.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 11, 2016 11:27:42 GMT
I've been looking at these again. There were 60+ new seats (with over half in Scotland) where they were new seats or did not have a predecessor or where Liberals didn't stand. So in some seats residual Liberal votes, often a few hundred if that, were distributed to other parties or some votes were taken from parties and given to the Liberals. That's why the vote totals don't exactly match. In Moray for example most of that seat came from Moray and Nairn but a chunk came from Banff where the Liberals didn't stand. So before that adjustment Moray was actually notionally SNP. However that's the only seat that flipped.
I have the pre adjustment figures for Scottish seats.
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