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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2016 17:59:05 GMT
Would she have become the leader of the right in the Labour party as she was undoubtedly more popular than Healey? Could she have defeated Foot for the leadership? Would she have ever left Labour for the SDP?
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johnr
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Post by johnr on May 31, 2016 19:35:12 GMT
Depends, but seeing as some of the later defectors voted for Foot rather than Healey, who knows?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2016 19:39:26 GMT
3:31-4:47
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2016 20:04:42 GMT
Another interesting YouTube video:
Shirley vs Maggie on 16 January 1979 in the Commons. Shirley Williams is heard between 0:30-0:45 and 1:16 to 1:23. It's actually rather difficult to distinguish between the voices of the two women, believe it or not:
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Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2016 20:22:01 GMT
The problem with the core scenario is that she loses the seat for certain in 1983.
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Post by greenhert on May 31, 2016 20:26:01 GMT
She could have moved somewhere else, carlton43, as many MPs had to when their seats were either heavily redrawn or abolished altogether (if they managed to find another constituency to move to; some did not).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2016 20:30:55 GMT
She would have had more favourable boundaries in 1983 - she's likely to have held the seat for the SDP if she had defected as the sitting MP.
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Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2016 20:31:14 GMT
She could have moved somewhere else, carlton43 , as many MPs had to when their seats were either heavily redrawn or abolished altogether (if they managed to find another constituency to move to; some did not). She holds it in 1979 and becomes leader of her party and then does a chicken run to a different constituency because of the near certainty of losing her seat! What message would that send to party and to country? And she is not the type to do it either. I fear the scenario does not stand up to probability. If she changes party anyway she would not be leader. If she stays on to benefit from the new seat I must admit I thought she would lose.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2016 20:38:51 GMT
If she led Labour and the SDP split hadn't happened, the chances are she'd have held Stevenage, even if Labour lost the election (one assumes they wouldn't have lost as badly as they did)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2016 21:03:30 GMT
Labour would not have suffered so disastrously if she had been leader...the SDP needed her to get off the ground, she was the real Social Democrat among the Gang of Four. I remember her interview on the Battlebus when she was asked by a reporter, "Are you a socialist?" She replied, "Yes, but a democratic socialist, that is the difference." Could you imagine Roy or Dr David having answered that way? She's have held her seat as leader in 1983.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2016 13:24:12 GMT
The problem with the core scenario is that she loses the seat for certain in 1983. Not necessarily - according to some if Foot hadn't become leader then the SDP would have never happened. And Stevenage was a seat where the SDP did very well in 1983. With Shirley Williams as leader and no SDP the election could have been different in outcome.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2016 13:42:57 GMT
Surely if Shirley Williams had held Hertford and Stevenage, then Labour would have won the general election? In which case the politics of the 1980s and 1990s would have been very different indeed. I think the Conservatives could have won in 1979 without winning Hertford and Stevenage. Williams lost by only 1,296 (1.84%) and the swing was well over the national average.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 2, 2016 14:16:10 GMT
Shirley Williams was not expected to lose, even though there was a strong swing to the Conservatives - she was a relatively popular, moderate minister and thought to be come over well on TV. She would not have lost on the national swing.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2016 14:43:39 GMT
Definitely. I remember watching her result come through and she really wasn't expected to lose though her seat behaved like many woth a new town element with higher than average swings
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2016 15:14:45 GMT
I remember reading that she had barely bothered to campaign in her own seat thinking it was safe - when she finally realised (with days to go) that she might be in real trouble, it was too late. Her defeat still came as a real shock by her own admission, and the trauma probably helped loosen her feelings of kinship with a party that was moving away from the sort of politics she wanted.
That result was thus a genuine game-changer IMO - if she doesn't lose there is a real chance she sticks with Labour, and if she hadn't gone there is a pretty strong possibility Rodgers and Owen wouldn't have either. We might have been left with Jenkins going over to the Liberals, a significant event in its own right but hardly the shock to the entire political setup that the SDP (albeit briefly) became.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2016 15:37:46 GMT
I remember reading that she had barely bothered to campaign in her own seat thinking it was safe - when she finally realised (with days to go) that she might be in real trouble, it was too late. Her defeat still came as a real shock by her own admission, and the trauma probably helped loosen her feelings of kinship with a party that was moving away from the sort of politics she wanted. That result was thus a genuine game-changer IMO - if she doesn't lose there is a real chance she sticks with Labour, and if she hadn't gone there is a pretty strong possibility Rodgers and Owen wouldn't have either. We might have been left with Jenkins going over to the Liberals, a significant event in its own right but hardly the shock to the entire political setup that the SDP (albeit briefly) became. That is exactly what I think. And I think she could have beaten Foot as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2016 19:48:17 GMT
A similar counterfactual to chew over would be David Owen LOSING Plymouth Devonport in 1979. In contrast to Shirley Williams he just managed to hold on with a swing below the national average.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 3, 2016 16:47:36 GMT
A similar counterfactual to chew over would be David Owen LOSING Plymouth Devonport in 1979. In contrast to Shirley Williams he just managed to hold on with a swing below the national average. He was never very popular in the party though. I think he would probably have returned to child psychiatry. Always did think that was an intriguing job given that he is so bloody scary.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 8, 2016 10:08:10 GMT
A similar counterfactual to chew over would be David Owen LOSING Plymouth Devonport in 1979. In contrast to Shirley Williams he just managed to hold on with a swing below the national average. He was never very popular in the party though. I think he would probably have returned to child psychiatry. Always did think that was an intriguing job given that he is so bloody scary. He was a specialist in Parkinsons, no? At least that's what I vaguely recall being told by a former councilor in Plymouth.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 8, 2016 10:12:45 GMT
He was never very popular in the party though. I think he would probably have returned to child psychiatry. Always did think that was an intriguing job given that he is so bloody scary. He was a specialist in Parkinsons, no? At least that's what I vaguely recall being told by a former councilor in Plymouth. You could be right. He was certainly a psychiatric registrar
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