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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2019 16:21:21 GMT
But second preferences (which aren't really second preferences at all under the crazy voting system) only matter if you finish in the top two. And definitely don't count when you poll 5.8% against 44% and 35% for the two leading candidates. There are a number of posters in this discussion who don't seem to have a clue about how the election actually works. Our Scottish Whig was waffling something about quotas earlier... But my point stands. In the absence of a candidate polling 50% on the initial vote all but two are eliminated, with their second preferences allocated between the front two. And "the people's candidate" in 2016 got 5.8%. I wonder if Stewart will exceed that share? Not sure if @boogieeck was being ironic or was genuinely confusing it with Scottish STV.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2019 16:41:58 GMT
[q Not sure if @boogieeck was being ironic or was genuinely confusing it with Scottish STV. I am disappointed in you ... but I have a suspicion.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 22, 2019 16:43:43 GMT
The Nick Clegg figure, the person who got second preference votes from all quarters. The person who transcended party and political spectrum, the housewives choice. But second preferences (which aren't really second preferences at all under the crazy voting system) only matter if you finish in the top two. And definitely don't count when you poll 5.8% against 44% and 35% for the two leading candidates. I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 22, 2019 16:51:29 GMT
So now this seems to be an argument about not being offensive to each other..... Psephological forum independently discovers Golden Rule after 15 years, shocker!
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2019 16:55:33 GMT
But second preferences (which aren't really second preferences at all under the crazy voting system) only matter if you finish in the top two. And definitely don't count when you poll 5.8% against 44% and 35% for the two leading candidates. I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. We will see in due course. But I doubt the Hon Member for Penrith and the Border (the very far end of the Northern Line) will gain the traction you expect.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2019 17:03:38 GMT
... but I have a suspicion. How you still cope in the Lib Dem’s bewilders but impresses me I have no intention of leaving my party. My party may be pondering leaving me.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2019 17:08:17 GMT
There are a number of posters in this discussion who don't seem to have a clue about how the election actually works. Our Scottish Whig was waffling something about quotas earlier... But my point stands. In the absence of a candidate polling 50% on the initial vote all but two are eliminated, with their second preferences allocated between the front two. And "the people's candidate" in 2016 got 5.8%. I wonder if Stewart will exceed that share? Not sure if @boogieeck was being ironic or was genuinely confusing it with Scottish STV. I was actually agreeing with you and commenting on those you were replying to, but never mind...
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 22, 2019 17:17:26 GMT
I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. We will see in due course. But I doubt the Hon Member for Penrith and the Border (the very far end of the Northern Line) will gain the traction you expect. His constituency is more closely linked than you would have thought. London is now a national park city, and the London wetlands centre at Barnes is our own lake district. As for traction, the other candidates are reasonably low profile, there isn't a Boris or a Ken amongst them, even Sadiq, living in London, you couldn't forget that Boris was Mayor, but Sadiq has a much quieter style. With Labours issues, will Sadiq Khan have himself pictured with Jeremy Corbyn or other London front benchers. Will the idea of an independent gain traction, it is difficult to tell, but I'd suggest he has a decent chance.
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msc
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Post by msc on Oct 22, 2019 17:24:40 GMT
To be honest, I can see Khan getting 50% in Round 1 more than I can see an independent finish in the top 2. I don't think he will, but if he does, I will own this like a prediction. And if he doesn't, I shall forget I ever wrote it!
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2019 17:34:02 GMT
To be honest, I can see Khan getting 50% in Round 1 more than I can see an independent finish in the top 2. I don't think he will, but if he does, I will own this like a prediction. And if he doesn't, I shall forget I ever wrote it! Ah, but we won't forget and the internet never forgets 😉
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 22, 2019 19:19:06 GMT
But second preferences (which aren't really second preferences at all under the crazy voting system) only matter if you finish in the top two. And definitely don't count when you poll 5.8% against 44% and 35% for the two leading candidates. I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. We will all watch out for it! I predict the order of mayoral candidates will be similar to the order of party support in Westminster voting intention.. Rory Stewart does not have anything like the profile in London of Ken Livingstone, who had been leader of the GLC for years as well as being a London MP.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 22, 2019 19:21:02 GMT
To be honest, I can see Khan getting 50% in Round 1 more than I can see an independent finish in the top 2. I don't think he will, but if he does, I will own this like a prediction. And if he doesn't, I shall forget I ever wrote it! Ah, but we won't forget and the internet never forgets 😉 Maybe the prediction could be moved into the London polls thread so we can find it more easily.
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Post by BossMan on Oct 22, 2019 22:34:49 GMT
After six months away I have decided to become a Conservative Party supporter again, which perhaps comes as little surprise given the views I have expressed in recent days and which I don't usually throw around given my current position as the forum admin. I suppose I never truly left and always hoped I would feel able to return.
Only a couple of weeks ago my dormant account was described as "Brexit Party leaning". Nigel Farage talking about his preference for further extension over Boris Johnson's deal was enough to change that. The deal isn't perfect, of course, but let's face it, no deal would be. It's a fact of political life. The priority for me is to leave the EU come what may, because the fight for our nation's independence seems to be better fought from outside the EU, rather than continued membership which would further entangle us in a whole host of ways and make leaving at some point in the future increasingly impossible. As has been pointed out so many times, Brexit is a process, and the UK's relationship with the EU will surely be freer to evolve more naturally outside.
I hesitated to rejoin because of the minority of Conservative MPs who, given the Government's precarious position in the House of Commons, are partly responsible for the dither and delay we have witnessed. But many of those MPs have found a new home. Good for them. I was also holding back until Brexit was actually delivered. But I back Boris Johnson's determined approach in the face of those who are using every opportunity they can to frustrate the process and prevent us from finally moving the emphasis of British political debate onto other things. It's not just the process that is being frustrated; it's the British public who are bored to death. For crying out loud, let's get this thing done and over with.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 22, 2019 22:43:59 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 23, 2019 11:43:29 GMT
There is a fair bit of that sort of thing about CK and 'Remoaner' is far from the worst of it. On the LD side (certainly not you and many others) there are more toxic posts than by any other party and a lot of sheer nastiness in references to Johnson and Brexit people in general. There is much wrong with the attitude of your own team for caustic terms and personal remarks. The LDs have always had my second pref vote because they were the party of moderation and decency. That is lost, many of them may still fit that description, but no more than the Labour party or SNP It is not just this Forum if i lived in Swinson's seat I would vote SNP in a heartbeat, my own council contains LDs who, being thick as dog shit and not remembering who they were talking too, have asserted that Brexit voters should be disregarded as they were all racists, a doubly stupid statement as it asserts that racists have no right to vote. Previously I would have given Crimson King or gwynthegriff my first pref over all but a truly exceptional Conservative. Now they would get my 2. Either Davıd Boothroyd or Merseymike would get my pref ahead of Khunanup or cogload because while their politics may not chime with mine, they are not in my view petty little bigots. There is no party left for the small l liberal to vote for, and if one emerges, it is as likely to come from a post Grieve and Stewart Conservative party as from the LDs, Lets see where Carswell and Hannan pitch up I imagine in your time, oh decent LDS, you have had to live with being irrelevant. You have rarely had to live with being despised. Grieve and Carswell I admire. But Hannan and Stewart? No, no, no.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 23, 2019 12:25:11 GMT
But second preferences (which aren't really second preferences at all under the crazy voting system) only matter if you finish in the top two. And definitely don't count when you poll 5.8% against 44% and 35% for the two leading candidates. I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. Rory Stewart is a Borders man, a countryside man, and slightly, er, eccentric. Anybody who thinks that he will get a significant proportion of the votes, let alone come in the top two, has got too many noodles in their elbow.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2019 12:31:05 GMT
I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. Rory Stewart is a Borders man, a countryside man, and slightly, er, eccentric. Anybody who thinks that he will get a significant proportion of the votes, let alone come in the top two, has got too many noodles in their elbow. Hopefully, he has wealthy friends who can carry out some polling and arrange focus groups so he can be brought down to earth before making a fool of himself. I don't actually dislike Rory Stewart, and felt he had something to offer in politics, but his 15 minutes of fame as a leadership candidate has sadly destroyed the balance of his mind, as sudden notoriety has done to many others before him.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 23, 2019 12:56:33 GMT
I'd suggest when the next London opinion poll comes out, Rory will probably be in that top 2, Shaun Bailey will struggle to get the same media attention that Rory will, and Siobham and Sian will continue to be underrepresented as they tend to be in the media. It could well became a shootout between Sadiq and Rory. Rory Stewart is a Borders man, a countryside man, and slightly, er, eccentric. Anybody who thinks that he will get a significant proportion of the votes, let alone come in the top two, has got too many noodles in their elbow. London as they say is a city of migrants, migrants from the UK, from Europe and from the wider World. Interesting that three of his main opponents, are campaigning on an open and inclusive London.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 23, 2019 13:08:35 GMT
Rory Stewart is a Borders man, a countryside man, and slightly, er, eccentric. Anybody who thinks that he will get a significant proportion of the votes, let alone come in the top two, has got too many noodles in their elbow. Stewart's connection with the Borders seems to date only from his adoption as Conservative candidate for Penrith. He's from a Scottish family, was brought up in the far east, then lived in Perthshire before going to school in Oxfordshire and Berkshire. But he's not had much connection with London and certainly none with London local politics.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 23, 2019 13:12:30 GMT
Rory Stewart is a Borders man, a countryside man, and slightly, er, eccentric. Anybody who thinks that he will get a significant proportion of the votes, let alone come in the top two, has got too many noodles in their elbow. Hopefully, he has wealthy friends who can carry out some polling and arrange focus groups so he can be brought down to earth before making a fool of himself. I don't actually dislike Rory Stewart, and felt he had something to offer in politics, but his 15 minutes of fame as a leadership candidate has sadly destroyed the balance of his mind, as sudden fame has done to many others before him. I agree, I think everyone was stunned when he said he'd run, the obvious job for him as a proud Scottish, was saving the union, taking over from Ruth Davidson. I suspect his decision to run for the London Mayor was inspired by his experience campaigning in London during the leadership race. I'm sure he took advice, how it will turn out, I don't think anyone can say for sure.
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