Whenever there is a choice to be made between little change and a great chance to sort out some of the current unsatisfactory arrangements, I do so wish the legislation had nudged the Commission more towards the more radical option, just for this review (given the new rules and overall reduction in number of seats).
My plan for Hertfordshire is perhaps too radical, containing as it does a 'Hitchin and Stortford' seat and a cross-border seat with Cambridgeshire, which both probably belong in the 'Pitchfork Bait' thread rather than here.
семна́дцать Запятой четы́ре миллио́н → Международный суд ООН
Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Jun 23, 2016 2:21:30 GMT
Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire & Norfolk
South Cambridgeshire 76583 Cambridge 77515 East Cambridgeshire 77093 Huntingdonshire 73956 Peterborough South 74884 Peterborough North 75368 Fenland 74473 West Norfolk 77328 Kings Lynn 75098 Breckland 76464 South Norfolk 77156 South Norwich 75780 North Norwich 71686 Broadland 72063 North Norfolk 73394 Great Yarmouth 71807
I'd say that makes sense, though I can see arguments for moving Whitehouse ward instead. Either way one half of Castle Hill is stranded on the other side of a railway track from the rest of the seat. It'd be much easier if you could use the county boundaries, which divide Castle Hill along that line.
Castle Hill or Whitehouse will have a big effect on the way Ipswich leans politically. If it is Castle Hill then Ipswich - would switch from Labour leaning to Tory leaning. A strong Tory incumbent could also make themselves felt on the borough ward boundaries over time (an area where the Tories have always been outsmarted so there's probably plenty of room even if they neutralise the bias) and switch "Fortress Ipswich" into a blue trending council - as unthinkable as this seems at the moment. This could have a massive effect on the political dynamics in eastern Suffolk where Ipswich has kept the Labour flame alive.
Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 14, 2016 13:02:27 GMT
Hertfordshire without areas (Aldenham, Bushey, Chorleywood, Elstree, Northaw & Cuffley, Potters Bar, Rickmansworth, Watford and Watford Rural) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London 7.61 (70821)
Essex without areas (Waltham Holy Cross) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London 16.34 (76010)
Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 15, 2016 3:55:09 GMT
Hertfordshire without areas (Aldenham, Bushey, Cheshunt, Chorleywood, Elstree, Northaw & Cuffley, Potters Bar, Rickmansworth, Watford and Watford Rural) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London and Essex without areas (Chigwell and Waltham Holy Cross) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London
Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 19, 2016 8:26:31 GMT
gains 1 seat from zombie review
NEW SEAT Harpenden created from all Hertfordshire wards of Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden (Cadwell and Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo and Harpenden East and Harpenden North and Harpenden South and Harpenden West and Kimpton and Wheathampstead) gains Ashridge and Watling and Woodhall Farm from Hemel Hempstead gains Redbourn and Sandridge from St Albans gains Hatfield Villages and Welwyn East and Welwyn West from Welwyn Hatfield gains Codicote and Knebworth from Stevenage
ZOMBIE REVIEW SEATS OUT OF QUOTA Changes to seat to get on quota
Cambridge gains Queen Edith's from South East Cambridgeshire
North West Norfolk gains St Lawrence from Wisbech & Downham Market
Norwich South gains Old Costessey from South East Norfolk
South East Norfolk loses Old Costessey to Norwich South
Ipswich gains Tower from Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
North Bedfordshire loses Ampthill Houghton Conquest & Haynes to Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden
Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden RENAMED Mid Bedfordshire loses all Hertfordshire wards of Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden (Cadwell and Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo and Harpenden East and Harpenden North and Harpenden South and Harpenden West and Kimpton and Wheathampstead) loses Caddington to South West Bedfordshire gains Cranfield & Marston Moretaine and Flitwick from South West Bedfordshire gains Ampthill and Houghton Conquest & Haynes from North Bedfordshire
South West Bedfordshire loses Cranfield & Marston Moretaine and Flitwick to Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden gains Bramingham from Luton North & Dunstable
Hemel Hempstead loses Ashridge and Watling and Woodhall Farm to Harpenden
North Hetfordshire loses Buntingford to Hertford & Stortford
SEATS WITHIN QUOTA CHANGED
South East Cambridgeshire loses Queen Edith's to Cambridge
Wisbech & Downham Market loses St Lawrence to North West Norfolk
Central Suffolk & North Ipswich RENAMED Central Suffolk loses Tower to Ipswich
Luton North & Dunstable loses Bramingham to South West Bedfordshire
St Albans loses Redbourn and Sandridge to Harpenden gains Brookmans Park & Little Heath and Welham Green from Welwyn Hatfield
Welwyn Hatfield RENAMED Hertford & Welwyn Hatfield loses Hertford Rural North to Hertford & Stortford loses Hatfield Villages and Welwyn East and Welwyn West to Harpenden loses Brookmans Park & Little Heath and Welham Green to St Albans loses Northaw & Cuffley to South East Hertfordshire gains Hertford Sele and Hertford Bengeo and Hertford Castle and Hertford Kingsmead from Hertford & Stortford
South East Hertfordshire loses Great Amwell and Hunsdon and Stanstead Abbots to Hertford & Stortford gains Northaw & Cuffley from Welwyn Hatfield
Hertford & Stortford RENAMED East Hertfordshire loses Hertford Sele and Hertford Bengeo and Hertford Castle and Hertford Kingsmead to Welwyn Hatfield gains Great Amwell and Hunsdon and Stanstead Abbots from South East Hertfordshire gains Buntingford and Hertford Rural North and Mundens & Cottered from North Hertfordshire
Stevenage loses Codicote and Knebworth to Harpenden
SEATS UNCHANGED FROM ZOMBIE REVIEW
South West Cambridgeshire St Neots & Huntingdon North West Cambridgeshire North East Cambridgeshire Peterborough South West Norfolk North Norfolk Mid Norfolk Norwich North Great Yarmouth Waveney Suffolk Coastal Bury St Edmunds South Suffolk West Suffolk Bedford Luton South South West Hertfordshire Watford Hertsmere Harwich & Clacton Colchester North East Essex Saffron Walden Braintree & Witham Maldon Chelmsford Billericay & Great Dunmow Harlow Epping Forest Brentwood & Ongar Rayleigh & Wickford Rochford & Southend East Southend West Castle Point Basildon & Thurrock East Thurrock
Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 19, 2016 8:39:18 GMT
Oh and from that exercise, for the Letchworth and Hitchin Reunification Society (LAHRS) here is a fairly good attempt at minimum change outside Hitchin & Letchworth
South West Hertfordshire 72404 Hemel Hempstead 71879 Watford 72878 Hertsmere 74831 St Albans 74403 Harpenden 71884 Hertford & Welwyn Hatfield 71931 Broxbourne 72557 Stortford & Ware OR East Hertfordshire 71408 Stevenage 71525 Hitchin & Letchworth 75530
and Pros and Cons versus the other Letchworth and Hitchin Reunification plans Firstly, considering that they are all fairly similar, the improvements on areas that are the same in all of the plans;
Number 1, My plan doesn't abolish South West Hertfordshire and replace it with a weird Three Rivers based seat (although Pete Whitehead calls it South West Hertfordshire) and also ruin Watford and Hemel Hempstead and worst of all, pairs Tring & Berkhampsted with Harpenden which is even worse than the current Hitchin & Harpenden which is a high bar to pass.
Number 2, My plan doesn't split Welwyn and Hatfield because there is no way this would be acceptable, considering that the LA is on quota it is difficult enough to not make a seat conterminous with it.
This one is going to have to be filed under 'just a bit of fun' although quite alot of it is what I'd like to do if I could. its obviously going to be a non-starter from a minimal change point of view and splitting Welwyn Hatfield district between three seats when it can clearly stand on it's own is not going to fly, but anyway...
Watford loses Oxhey itself and the Three Rivers wards to the south while gaining Bedmond, unitying almost all of Abbots Langley parish in one seat. c.71,300 SW Herts is now all of Three Rivers less Abbots Langley parish plus Oxhey from Watford and Bushey from Hertsmere. 74,968 Hemel Hempstead is all of that town plus Kings Langley, Bovingdon etc and the 'Primrose Hill' section of Gade Valley ward. c. 72,800 NW Herts is the remainder of Dacorum plus the Harpenden, Redbourn, Wheathamstead and Sandridge (and etc) parishes of St Albans. 72,884 St Albans loses Marshalswick North to the above seat and Bedmond/Primrose Hill and gains the Aldenham East & West and Elstree wards from Hertsmere. 73,003 (I didn't want to go as far south as Elstree but Marshalswick North had to be donated to NW Herts or it would have caused all sorts of problems into other seats) Hatfield comprises the remainder of Hertsmere (Borehamwood, Shenley adn Potters Bar) with the 'Greater' Hatfield area. 72,327 Hertford combines the 7 wards of Welwyn Garden city with Hertford and Ware plus 3 rural wards in between. 72,650 Stevenage loses Datchworth and gains the two wards of Old Welwyn. 73,652 Hitchin reunites Hitchin with Letchworth & Baldock. 71,767 East Herts combines the rural Eastern section of North Herts district including Royston with Bishops Stortford, Sawbridgeworth and the rural East and North of East Herts district. 73,135 Broxbourne is as before 72,664
But for having to split a ward (and the nightmare new wards we have in Three Rivers make this desirable as much as necessary) I'd be pretty happy with this, but I don't think I'll spend a day in Luton trying to sell it
It certainly isn't and I'm not even sure the Hitchin & Letchworth seat is an improvement when it stretches to include Buntingford. Regarding St Albans and Hatfield, there are good links between the two towns, but it doesn't make sense to detach St Albans from so much of it's natural hinterland to force that link. I did show my non-minimum change plan earlier in the thread, before the boundary assistant site was updated and I've made a couple of changes (which presumably Adrian was alluding to).
Hemel is just under quota and I'd suggest adding Sarratt parish to make up the numbers (I think just the PD covering Sarratt itself, ie just the area north of the M25 would be enough actually) Hatfield Villages being detached is a change from my previous plan, which enables me to keep Marshalswick North in St Albans instead of Elstree. Most of that ward is fairly separate from Hatfield proper and the A1 is a logical boundary so while it's not ideal, I reckon it to be an improvement on my earlier plan. There's no need for the Hitchin seat to extend further East than Baldock
I am going to assess these as one considering how similar they are, so;
Number 1, My plan doesn't split Hertsmere, even though it isn't the best LA it is 1 ward short of quota and if you want Hitchin & Letchworth reunited then ripping every other seat is not going to work, if we want Hitchin & Letchworth to actually reunite it has to have as smaller repurcussions to the current seats as possible.
There's quite a nice scheme if you allow "East Thurrock & Canvey" - OK the road link passes outside the constituency but it is arguably still pretty coherent. (also includes South Benfleet). Means you can have a united Basildon; a nice compact Rayleigh (incl north of Castle Point & South WF) and a nice Billericay (incl Wickford & rural south Chelmsford boro'). Also keeps Brentwood & Ongar together and avoids crossing western boundary of Southend.
Sorry, but that's dreadful. As you say, East Thurrock and Canvey doesn't have a direct road link and in fact you have to go right into Basildon to get from one to the other. Canvey may be odd and insular, but it's got much better links to the mainland bits of Castle Point and any map ought to reflect that. And putting bits of Castle Point into Rayleigh is a bad idea because a) the ward patterns don't conform terribly well to the component parts of Castle Point and b) all the major transport connections in that bit of Essex go east-west, not north-south. The A127 is a strong boundary and I think it should be followed to the maximum extent possible.
But what about my plan, putting the north part of Castle Point into Southend meaning that there is no Seat with a wierd long tail