iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,689
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Post by iain on Oct 11, 2016 16:26:08 GMT
When do we get initial proposals here?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 11, 2016 16:27:08 GMT
Just over a week to go - initial proposals are out on 20 October.
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 17, 2016 0:01:35 GMT
4 days to go: can't wait! NEITHER CAN I!!! I AM SO EXCITED ABOUT IT!!!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 19, 2016 8:13:07 GMT
I hear midnight boundary parties are planned for Sauchiehall Street and the Royal Mile.
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Post by edinburghtory on Oct 19, 2016 15:08:56 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 19, 2016 15:19:06 GMT
They've jumped the embargo.
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Post by edinburghtory on Oct 19, 2016 15:20:21 GMT
They've jumped the embargo. As a bastion of the publishing world they should really know better. You would think though if they are going to post a copy they could have posted a half decent version.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 19, 2016 18:10:53 GMT
Screwing my eyes up here but Murray and Mundell look like they might be out.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,689
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Post by iain on Oct 19, 2016 20:17:32 GMT
So my quick thoughts on what the Oban Times have published: The boundaries are almost gerrymandered for the Liberal Democrats as they retain the Edinburgh West and North East Fife constituencies (which the Liberal Democrats currently hold onto in the Scottish Parliament on more favourable boundaries). Realistically the Liberal Democrats would be in with a fighting chance of taking atleast three constituencies in Scotland in 2020. I would guess that the Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; Clydesdale & Eskdale and Dumfries & Galloway constituencies went Conservative in the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary election. They should have come in close behind in the Ayr & Carrick; Cunninghame East and Gordon & Deeside constituencies. With 2020 in mind there's a chance that they could also take the Aberdeen South constituency on a good night. Edinburgh South; Moray & Nairn and Perthshire could possibly go Consrvative on a very good election night. The Labour Party are only truly relevant in East Lothian (which went Labour in 2016 on more favourable boundaries than the proposed boundaries for Westminster) and in Edinburgh South, which now excludes Newington (which is terrible news for Ian Murray!) Overall the boundaries are brilliant for the Liberal Democrats, okay for the Conservatives, not great for the Labour Party. As you say, pretty favourable for us - though NE Fife might actually be better for us taking in Kinross and south Perthshire, given how squeezable the Tory vote is vs the SNP. That East Dunbartonshire is bizarre - why doesn't West Dunbartonshire just take an Argyll ward?
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 19, 2016 20:17:59 GMT
Looks like Argyll, Bute and Lochaber is not contiguous with Ardgour and Mallaig as an exclave from the rest of the Constituency owing to Banavie and Caol being placed in the Inverness and Skye constituency. Not ideal but I guess the alternative is splitting Helensburgh.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,689
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Post by iain on Oct 19, 2016 20:33:12 GMT
As you say, pretty favourable for us - though NE Fife might actually be better for us taking in Kinross and south Perthshire, given how squeezable the Tory vote is vs the SNP. That East Dunbartonshire is bizarre - why doesn't West Dunbartonshire just take an Argyll ward? The proposed North East Fife constituency doesn't cover any of the Perth and Kinross council area, it covers the more working class town of Buckhaven in Fife, which makes it worse for the Lib Dems in comparison to the existing North East Fife constituency. As for East Dunbartonshire it's understandable though frankly I'm totally bewildered why the Commission decided to split Bearsden up into two constituencies when they could have give Milngavie to West Dunbartonshire, keeping Bearsden with Bishoppsbriggs and Kirkintilloch. I know ... My point was that adding in Perthshire (as you did in your proposal) would be better than adding in bits of Fife. The East Dunbartonshire's just weird
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 19, 2016 20:37:39 GMT
BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! This came out when I was asleep which is unfair
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 19, 2016 20:44:43 GMT
I think I've roughly managed to make out the constituency names, which are by enlarge pretty awful. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Monklands East (is there some kind of significance in the name Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & place name East?) Monklands was the pre-1996 district covering Airdrie and Coatbridge, so a better name would be Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Airdrie North East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (why not just "East Kilbride"?) I don't know Highlands North (no) YIKES!!!
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Post by BossMan on Oct 19, 2016 20:57:04 GMT
I've moved th' boondaries board tae th' top ay th' haem page.
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 19, 2016 21:22:13 GMT
Continuing my critique of Argyll, Bute and Lochaber they have not included polling district R12E Inverie in the seat.
This may lead to a neater looking boundary but Knoydart only has practical communication links to Mallaig and should really be in the same seat.
I wonder if it was getting close to the area limit though and it has been shoved into Inverness and Skye inappropriately to keep the physical size down.
I think the principle of the seat is a good one but unconvinced by the execution.
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 19, 2016 21:42:08 GMT
Continuing with Highland (as the boundaries are easy to see) I wonder if a better boundary for the Skye and Highland north constituencies would be to move Kishorn and Applecross into the Inverness and Skye constituency reflecting the Plockton High School catchment boundary.
Thinking further about Inverie, if either area or population is tight you can do a straight swap with Glenfinnan and then you match the Mallaig / Fort William catchment boundaries too. My preference would be to squeeze as much of Locheilside into the ABL seat as possible though.
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Post by islington on Oct 19, 2016 21:44:39 GMT
Continuing my critique of Argyll, Bute and Lochaber they have not included polling district R12E Inverie in the seat. This may lead to a neater looking boundary but Knoydart only has practical communication links to Mallaig and should really be in the same seat. I wonder if it was getting close to the area limit though and it has been shoved into Inverness and Skye inappropriately to keep the physical size down. I think the principle of the seat is a good one but unconvinced by the execution. I don't think that can be right because even if you put the whole of Caol and Ft William wards in with the entirety of Argyll & Bute (which you can't because it's 80549 electors), then the area is still only 11831 sq km and thus well within the limit. It's when you try to leave out Helensburgh and make up the numbers by adding in Skye instead - as in some plans upthread - that you run into trouble with the surface area. Note: The wards areas unfortunately no longer seem to be featured on the Plan Builder for the current review but they're still there on the zombie archive.
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 19, 2016 22:38:14 GMT
Continuing my critique of Argyll, Bute and Lochaber they have not included polling district R12E Inverie in the seat. This may lead to a neater looking boundary but Knoydart only has practical communication links to Mallaig and should really be in the same seat. I wonder if it was getting close to the area limit though and it has been shoved into Inverness and Skye inappropriately to keep the physical size down. I think the principle of the seat is a good one but unconvinced by the execution. I don't think that can be right because even if you put the whole of Caol and Ft William wards in with the entirety of Argyll & Bute (which you can't because it's 80549 electors), then the area is still only 11831 sq km and thus well within the limit. It's when you try to leave out Helensburgh and make up the numbers by adding in Skye instead - as in some plans upthread - that you run into trouble with the surface area. Note: The wards areas unfortunately no longer seem to be featured on the Plan Builder for the current review but they're still there on the zombie archive. Thanks. Just population to worry about then. Should certainly be possible to squeeze Inverie and Locheilside in as they are only about 100 electors each. Would be nice if Corpach and Caol could both go in as well but looking at 2014 numbers there were only about 1500 electors in Glengarry, Spean Bridge, Roy Bridge and Achnacarry so that would give you a constituency about 500 over quota. Once you accept Fort William has to be split then it is probably better to keep Caol and Corpach together. Can make arguments either way about Locheilside or for moving Glenfinnan. The only definite mistake by the commission is putting Inverie in with Inverness and Skye but that is easily fixed.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,504
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 19, 2016 23:26:51 GMT
Some very odd boundaries there. With all that space, what the hell is going on around Fort William for example?!
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,586
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 19, 2016 23:31:35 GMT
Some very odd boundaries there. With all that space, what the hell is going on around Fort William for example?! Split wards! Looks like they are using pre-review wards as base data as required, but have "split" them to align with new wards.
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