Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 24, 2016 12:48:49 GMT
Astonishing is, that the candidate of the "SocialDemocrats" plus PP was above 50% even before and immediately after the ParliamentaryElection, so relying on a strong PersonalVote.
The president had before 2006 "always" belonged to PS.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 24, 2016 21:09:13 GMT
2/3 of the PollingStations are counted and the PSD+PP-candidate is at 54%.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,224
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 25, 2016 0:28:04 GMT
The quite final (99.56%) OutCome is:
48.84 TurnOut (+2.19 compared to 2011)
52.00 PSD+PP (-0.94)
22.89 Livre+PComm.Trab.Port.
10.13 BE+MAS
4.24 (PS)
3.95 ind.
3.28 PComm.Port.
2.15 ind.
0.84 exPS
0.30 ind.
0.23 exPS
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 25, 2016 1:27:51 GMT
The quite final (99.56%) OutCome is: 48.84 TurnOut (+2.19 compared to 2011) 52.00 PSD+PP (-0.94) 22.89 Livre+PComm.Trab.Port. 10.13 BE+MAS 4.24 (PS) 3.95 ind. 3.28 PComm.Port. 2.15 ind. 0.84 exPS 0.30 ind. 0.23 exPS That's a very bad result for Maria de Belém, she got less than half of what she was expected to do in the opinion polls. A few days ago, the Constitutionnal Court stuck down a law abolishing the pensions of former MPs, ministers and PMs (well, from 1985 to 2005). She was one of the plaintiffs. The law being stuck down was very unpopular in austerity times, so she sank in polls right after that. www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-portugals-presidential-election/ |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 25, 2016 13:12:23 GMT
Why was the poll locked so early?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 25, 2016 14:50:16 GMT
I suppose we could still say how we would have voted rather than how we will vote - its all hypothetical after all
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,224
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 25, 2016 21:59:06 GMT
Why was the poll locked so early? Because the election happened the same day I started the thread, next time I start a thread before an election I'll do it a bit earlier before the poll I was considering to establish this thread, but didn't venture it as a foreigner, knowing that Portugal belonged de facto to the Empire... |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 25, 2016 22:10:39 GMT
The EstablishmentLeft wanted to avoid a clear confrontation with the unbeatable Rebelo de Sousa, sure. Still, such a result is very strange for Lusitania's 2plus-PartySystem (which is similar to Spain and Greece, all resulting from a similar ElectoralSystem), isn't it?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2016 22:29:14 GMT
Lol, we backed de Sousa even more emphatically than Portugal did. What a guy...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 26, 2016 12:20:39 GMT
Another hard-left dawn sets quickly!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2016 1:08:28 GMT
Another hard-left dawn sets quickly! Yes, PS could be replaced by LIVRE and allies, that's my impression, too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2016 13:42:14 GMT
Another hard-left dawn sets quickly! Yes, PS could be replaced by LIVRE and allies, that's my impression, too. Hmm Not seeing how, they lack the vehicle. LIVRE is a failed one man ego project. You only got the sectarian PCP in alliance with the facade "Greens" and BE, which is typical middle class "progressives" with little working class support. Besides, while Costa used to be a bit tough "law and order" pol, he nows represents the left wing in PS. The most likely scenario IMO is that a more genuine left winger takes over PS after Costa. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,224
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 27, 2016 22:34:47 GMT
Yes, PS could be replaced by LIVRE and allies, that's my impression, too. Hmm Not seeing how, they lack the vehicle. LIVRE is a failed one man ego project. You only got the sectarian PCP in alliance with the facade "Greens" and BE, which is typical middle class "progressives" with little working class support. Besides, while Costa used to be a bit tough "law and order" pol, he nows represents the left wing in PS. The most likely scenario IMO is that a more genuine left winger takes over PS after Costa. With "LIVRE and allies" I meant any leftradical ProtestMovement like "PODEMOS", that can fill the vacuum, so eventually not LIVRE itself, but leftPS, CDU, BE or a new force. That such a party lacks support from the BlueCollars wouldn't be surprising, would it? Lusitania is - looking at the PS-meltdown in this election - less stable than the polls and inexisting riots/demonstrations suggested and closer to Spain and Greece than thought. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2016 22:51:41 GMT
The reason why PS did not field an official candidate was because "O Professor" is a phenomenon with enormous cross-over support and name recognition and was considered unbeatable. It would be too humiliating for them to field an official candidate which would then lose big - and they can live with O Professor as President since he has campaigned on reconciliation and cooperation and because the presidency is mostly ceremonial outside of government formation situations. Temperament is as important as ideology and they got rid of beliggerent Cavaco Silva.
Unofficially António Sampaio da Nóvoa was backed by the Costa-wing in PS (the left wing) as well as Livre and PCTP/MRPP, while Maria de Belém was backed by the PS right wing and the Catholics in the party. But without official support that mattered relatively little, but the #2 to Sampaio da Nóvoa can not be seen as a far left triumph as he was also the preferred candidate of most of the government.
Even if Costa is not a true left winger (fx he used to be quite tough on law & order) I see no reason why the PS left wing should break away now that they dominate the party. The rise of Syriza only happened because the left had no chance of taking over Pasok and the same with Podemos, which also happened in a context where PSOE was deemed a lost cause for the anti-austerity crowd.
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