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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2016 14:21:26 GMT
I'm assuming that all these polls continue the UK polling tradition of not polling Northern Ireland. If it's very close, that could be significant. It would be silly if they do continue that tradition. It obviously makes sense in terms of normal VI not to ask about support for Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems etc when for the most part those parties aren't going to be on the ballot paper in NI, but that obviously doesn't apply here. I did hear some reference to NI sub-samples by John Curtice the other day but may have misunderstood him. Even so I don't think the inclusion or exlcusion of NI from the total figures would make much of a statistical difference
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 14, 2016 19:50:57 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 14, 2016 21:01:02 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2016 10:12:53 GMT
Correlation does not necessarily equal causation with this one....... Rather an odd statement from Survation on their latest poll btw, not exactly disowning it but along the lines of "we cannot be sure if these figures are correct".
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2016 22:53:47 GMT
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jun 15, 2016 23:01:34 GMT
Still a big lead for Remain there, but the numbers for Remain are dropping by the day.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2016 23:04:37 GMT
Still a big lead for Remain there, but the numbers for Remain are dropping by the day. Still a pretty hefty lead for Remain in Scotland. It's looking more likely than ever IMO that if the UK votes to stay in the EU it'll be because of the result in Scotland. I wonder if it's possible to bet on such an outcome?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2016 23:09:44 GMT
If that happens I trust we'll be having a referendum in England & Wales on whether we want to maintain the union with Scotland
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jun 15, 2016 23:10:23 GMT
Still a big lead for Remain there, but the numbers for Remain are dropping by the day. Still a pretty hefty lead for Remain in Scotland. It's looking more likely than ever IMO that if the UK votes to stay in the EU it'll be because of the result in Scotland. I wonder if it's possible to bet on such an outcome? And will there be a English independence referendum because Scotland kept us in the EU against our will?
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2016 23:19:55 GMT
Still a pretty hefty lead for Remain in Scotland. It's looking more likely than ever IMO that if the UK votes to stay in the EU it'll be because of the result in Scotland. I wonder if it's possible to bet on such an outcome? And will there be a English independence referendum because Scotland kept us in the EU against our will? Unlikely since most Brexiteers are firm unionists. But who knows what will happen.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2016 6:00:58 GMT
Still a big lead for Remain there, but the numbers for Remain are dropping by the day. Still a pretty hefty lead for Remain in Scotland. It's looking more likely than ever IMO that if the UK votes to stay in the EU it'll be because of the result in Scotland. I wonder if it's possible to bet on such an outcome? I had worked out various scenarios for what was needed rUK if England voted LEAVE link toIt needed a hefty swing to remain if England voted by only a 3% lead to vote Leave
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 16, 2016 11:18:27 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 16, 2016 11:30:49 GMT
<METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON>
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 16, 2016 19:25:15 GMT
Still a big lead for Remain there, but the numbers for Remain are dropping by the day. As were, if I recall correctly, the numbers for No at this stage in 2014.
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 16, 2016 19:55:14 GMT
Yes they were, though Wikipedia only lists two polls which ever showed Yes ahead and No's lead was bigger.
Going by Wikipedia, the average Yes score in polls including don't knows the week before the referendum was 44.1% and they got 44.7%. Leave's average in the last week is around 46% in polls including some number of don't knows. I.e. not enough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2016 4:11:02 GMT
A rather surprising new poll has been getting some coverage from (so far, mostly American) news outlets. www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/It concluded that the crumbling of the "Remain" position had accelerated following Jo Cox's death. rather than the contrary as expected by many commentators. Qriously, of which I have never heard, is "a London-based technology start-up that gathers data and intelligence about consumers through mobile phone apps". I have invited Anthony Wells to comment, and will pass on any response in due course. Interestingly, J P Morgan on Friday saw a "Leave" lead of 3-5% - www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-jpmorgan-idUSKCN0Z327W?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNewsThey concluded: "The swing toward leave appears to have accelerated as we moved into the period when we would expect status quo bias to show". It appears that new polls from established UK pollsters such as YouGov will be available after the weekend.
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cefin
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Post by cefin on Jun 18, 2016 10:29:53 GMT
I think that you meant crumbling of the Remain vote in your third line instead of leave
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 18, 2016 11:03:59 GMT
Wikipedia has two polls by Qriously. 13-16 June is 52-40 Leave while 17 June is 52-32 Leave. Both are online polls counting only people likely to vote. To be taken with a slight pinch of salt think seeing as they are not an established player, but nonetheless a growing lead for Leave.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 18, 2016 11:06:40 GMT
For that matter, 8 out of the last 10 polls have favoured Leave, all but one by a margin of 5 points of more. Only two polls have favoured Remain, of which one was by only 1 point, the other made the rather questionable assumption that don't knows would break 2:1 in favour of Remain.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2016 11:11:02 GMT
Slight pinch? More like a shovelful methinks - reminds me of those "OnePoll" charlatans at the 2010 GE (and probably about as accurate)
Meanwhile an at least vaguely credible outfit - BMG - have two surveys out that both concluded their fieldwork on June 15. Online survey says leave ahead by 55-45, phone survey says remain lead by 53-47. The latter is the biggest remain lead in any poll for a while FWIW, maybe not that much in this case.
(but it is also of some interest that their online/phone findings are significantly different, the two have tended if anything to converge recently)
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