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Post by middleenglander on Sept 28, 2015 12:23:48 GMT
It looks as though there are 31 by-elections during October * 8 on the 1st * 2 on the 7th (Wednesday) * 6 on the 8th * 3 on the 15th * 6 on the 22nd * 6 on the 29th
13 of the by-elections are for District Councils - 6 with 4 yearly elections where the the previous Councillor was elected in May - 7 with annual elections, although not necessarily for this ward, where the previous Councillor was elected in either 2012 or 2014 3 for County Councils last elected in 2013 2 for London Boroughs last elected in 2014 2 for Unitary Authorities, 1 with all out elections in May and 1 with annual elections 1 for a Metropolitan Borough with annual elections 9 in Scotland where the previous elections were in 2012 1 in Wales where the previous elections were in 2012 although there was also a by-election in 2013
Conservatives are defending 10 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor, 6 a resignation and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance Labour is defending 8 seats, 1 following a death, 6 a resignation and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all following a resignation SNP defend 6 seats, all following a resignation with all but 1 after the previous Councillor became a MP UKIP defend 1 seat following a death and Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation.
With all nominations now available: Conservatives are contesting 30 of the 31 by-elections, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 21, UKIP 17, Green 19, SNP 8, Plaid Cymru 1 whilst there are 5 Independents, 3 TUSAC, 2 No Description, 1 All People's and 1 Baker Street: No Two Way a total of 134 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00am on day of election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2015 16:15:46 GMT
George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen
Brian Davidson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 9% Euan Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 5% Michael Hutchison (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 38% Alex Jarvis (Scottish Green Party) 10% Mike Scott (Scottish Labour Party) 38%
Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen
Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party) 35% Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 15% Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 5% Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 34% Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party) 11%
Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC
Kenneth Ashworth (Liberal Democrats) 0.1% Shaida Hussain (Labour Party) 40% Christopher Manley (The Green Party) 9.9% Tony Mepham (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30% Linda Wren (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20%
Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire
Jen Broadhurst (Scottish Green Party) 10% Susan McFadzean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14% Alex Walsh (Scottish Labour Party) 40% Elena Whitham (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 36%
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife
Julie Ford (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 40% Jonathan Gray (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 15% Lorna Ross (Scottish Green Party) 10% Alan Seath (Scottish Labour Party) 35%
Hendon and Laich - Moray
Pete Bloomfield (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20% James Mackessack-Leitch (Scottish Green Party) 10% Joyce Ohara (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 30% Dennis Slater (Independent) 40%
Stirling East - Stirling
Luke Davison (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 13% Chris Kane (Scottish Labour Party) 39% Gerry McLaughlan (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 38% Alasdair Tollemache (Scottish Green Party) 10%
Linlithgow - West Lothian -
Ian Burgess (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 30% Brenda Galloway 10% Caron Lindsay (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1% David Manion (Scottish Labour Party) 25% Maire McCormack (Scottish Green Party) 9% David Tait (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 25%
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 30, 2015 21:19:58 GMT
George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen
Brian Davidson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 9% Euan Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 6% Michael Hutchison (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 52% Alex Jarvis (Scottish Green Party) 6% Mike Scott (Scottish Labour Party) 27%
Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen
Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party) 28% Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20% Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 6% Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 42% Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party) 4%
Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC
Kenneth Ashworth (Liberal Democrats) 9% Shaida Hussain (Labour Party) 40% Christopher Manley (The Green Party) 4% Tony Mepham (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39% Linda Wren (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 8%
Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire
Jen Broadhurst (Scottish Green Party) 4% Susan McFadzean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 17% Alex Walsh (Scottish Labour Party) 27% Elena Whitham (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 52%
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife
Julie Ford (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 55% Jonathan Gray (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 5% Lorna Ross (Scottish Green Party) 3% Alan Seath (Scottish Labour Party) 37%
Hendon and Laich - Moray
Pete Bloomfield (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20% James Mackessack-Leitch (Scottish Green Party) 5% Joyce Ohara (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 38% Dennis Slater (Independent) 37%
Stirling East - Stirling
Luke Davison (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 12% Chris Kane (Scottish Labour Party) 34% Gerry McLaughlan (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 49% Alasdair Tollemache (Scottish Green Party) 5%
Linlithgow - West Lothian -
Ian Burgess (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 26% Brenda Galloway 8% Caron Lindsay (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 5% David Manion (Scottish Labour Party) 16% Maire McCormack (Scottish Green Party) 3% David Tait (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 42%
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Post by marksenior on Sept 30, 2015 21:33:26 GMT
Banbury Lab 41 Con 39 UKIP 10 Green 5 LD 5 Aberdeen GS SNP 48 Lab 34 LD 10 Con 10 Green 8 Aberdeen Mid SNP 44 Lab 27 Con 16 LD 7 Green 6 E Ayrshire SNP 57 Lab 21 Con 17 Green 5 Fife SNP 57 Lab 34 Green 5 Con 4 Moray SNP 40 Ind 34 Con 18 Green 8 Stirling SNP 44 Lab 34 Con 14 Green 8 W Lothian SNP 45 Con 35 Lab 16 Green 4
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Post by lennon on Sept 30, 2015 22:31:02 GMT
George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen
Brian Davidson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10% Euan Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 10% Michael Hutchison (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45% Alex Jarvis (Scottish Green Party) 5% Mike Scott (Scottish Labour Party) 30%
Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen
Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party) 30% Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10% Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 10% Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45% Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party) 5%
Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC
Kenneth Ashworth (Liberal Democrats) 10% Shaida Hussain (Labour Party) 30% Christopher Manley (The Green Party) 5% Tony Mepham (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40% Linda Wren (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 15%
Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire
Jen Broadhurst (Scottish Green Party) 5% Susan McFadzean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10% Alex Walsh (Scottish Labour Party) 25% Elena Whitham (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 60%
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife
Julie Ford (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 60% Jonathan Gray (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10% Lorna Ross (Scottish Green Party) 5% Alan Seath (Scottish Labour Party) 25%
Hendon and Laich - Moray
Pete Bloomfield (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20% James Mackessack-Leitch (Scottish Green Party) 5% Joyce Ohara (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45% Dennis Slater (Independent) 30%
Stirling East - Stirling
Luke Davison (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20% Chris Kane (Scottish Labour Party) 30% Gerry McLaughlan (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45% Alasdair Tollemache (Scottish Green Party) 5%
Linlithgow - West Lothian -
Ian Burgess (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 25% Brenda Galloway 6% Caron Lindsay (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 4% David Manion (Scottish Labour Party) 15% Maire McCormack (Scottish Green Party) 5% David Tait (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45%
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Post by greenhert on Sept 30, 2015 22:57:25 GMT
My by-election predictions for this week are:
Aberdeen UA, George Street/Harbour: SNP 47, Labour 26, Liberal Democrat 11, Green 8, Conservative 8. Aberdeen UA, Midstocket/Rosemount: SNP 39, Lab 33, Con 17, Green 6, Lib Dem 5. Cherwell DC, Banbury Grimsbury & Castle: Lab 39, Con 38, UKIP 12, Lib Dem 6, Green 5. (Labour gain from Conservative.) East Ayrshire UA, Irvine Valley: SNP 53, Lab 30, Con 12, Green 5. Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie: SNP 51, Lab 37, Con 9, Green 3. Moray UA, Hendon and Laich: SNP 43, Independent Slater 35, Con 17, Green 5. Stirling UA, Stirling East: SNP 48, Lab 33, Con 13, Green 6. West Lothian UA, Linlithgow: SNP 46, Con 22, Lab 21, Green 7, Brenda Galloway 4.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 30, 2015 23:40:48 GMT
ABERDEEN George Street / Harbour: SNP 50, Lab 27, C 10, L Dem 7, SGP 6 ABERDEEN Midstocket / Rosemount: SNP 50, Lab 26, C 17, SGP 4, L Dem 3 CHERWELL Banbury Grimsbury and Castle: Lab 43, C 40, UKIP 9, L Dem 5, GP 3 EAST AYRSHIRE Irvine Valley: SNP 48, Lab 32, C 17, SGP 3 FIFE Glenrothes West and Kinglassie: SNP 57, Lab 35, C 6, SGP 2 MORAY Heldon and Laich: Ind 40, SNP 36, C 21, SGP 3 STIRLING Stirling East:SNP 51, Lab 35, C 10, SGP 4 WEST LOTHIAN Linlithgow: SNP 44, C 36, Lab 12, SGP 4, L Dem 3, No description 1
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hempie
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Post by hempie on Oct 1, 2015 7:16:42 GMT
Aberdeen, George Street/Harbour: SNP 49, Lab 28, Con 12, LD 6, Green 5 Aberdeen, Midstocket/Rosemount: SNP 45, Lab 28, Con 17, Green 6, LD 4 Cherwell, Banbury - Grimsbury and Castle: Lab 40, Con 37, UKIP 11, Green 7, LD 5 East Ayrshire, Irvine Valley: SNP 45, Lab 31, Con 19, Green 5 Fife, Glenrothes West and Kinglassie: SNP 53, Lab 37, Con 6, Green 4 Moray, Heldon and Laich: SNP 40, Ind 37, Con 18, Green 5 Stirling, Stirling East:SNP 48, Lab 34, Con 12, Green 6 West Lothian, Linlithgow: SNP 41, Con 30, Lab 12, Green 7, LD 6, Brenda Galloway 4
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 1, 2015 7:36:19 GMT
Aberdeen UA, George Street/Harbour: SNP 53, Lab 26, LD 10, Con 7, Grn 4 Aberdeen UA, Midstocket/Rosemount: SNP 53, Lab 22, Con 15, Grn 5, LD 5 Cherwell DC, Banbury Grimsbury & Castle: Lab 38.8, Con 36, UKIP 13, Grn 6.9, LD 5.3 East Ayrshire UA, Irvine Valley: SNP 53, Con 25, Lab 20, Grn 2 Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie: SNP 57, Lab 35, Con 5, Grn 3 Moray UA, Hendon and Laich: Ind 48, SNP 34, Con 13, Grn 5 Stirling UA, Stirling East: SNP 46, Lab 39, Con 11, Grn 4 West Lothian UA, Linlithgow: SNP 47, Con 32, Lab 12, Ind 5, LD 2, Grn 2
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 1, 2015 7:43:37 GMT
Aberdeen, George St/Harbour: SNP 48.1, L 26.1, C 10.7, LD 7.9, G 7.2. Aberdeen, Midstocket/Rosemount: SNP 48.8, L 28.5, C 10.4, LD 7.8, G 4.5. East Ayrshire. Irvine Valley: SNP 51.9, L 27.6, C 17.3, G 3.2. Fife, Glenrothes W & Kinglassie: SNP 54.6, L 36.2, C 6.6, G 2.6. Moray, Heldon & Laich: Ind 43.7, SNP 39.2, C 14.5, G 2.6. Stirling, Stirling East: SNP 46.6, L 41.2, C 9.2, G 3.0. West Lothian, Linlithgow: SNP 47.3, C 35.4, L 12.3, LD 2.3, G 1.5, ND 1.2.
Cherwell, Banbury Grimsbury & Castle- prediction sent over to Middle Englander.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 1, 2015 7:55:23 GMT
Cherwell - Banbury Grimsbury & Castle Con 39.3% Lab 37.7% UKIP 12.1% Grn 5.8% LD 5.1% Aberdeen - George Street/ Harbour SNP 52.9% Lab 28.7% Con 7.3% LD 6.1% Grn 5.0% Aberdeen - Midstocket & Rosemount SNP 45.4% Lab 26.9% Con 17.1% LD 6.5% Grn 4.1% East Ayrshire - Irvine Valley SNP 55.7% Lab 23.1% Con 18.4% Grn 2.8% Fife - Glenrothes West & Kinglassie SNP 56.4% Lab 36.3% Con 4.8% Grn 2.5% Moray - Heldon & Laich SNP 40.2% Ind 38.3% Con 15.3% Grn 6.2% Stirling - Stirling East SNP 50.1% Lab 34.5% Con 11.2% Grn 4.2% West Lothian - Linlithgow SNP 50.4% Con 28.2% Lab 13.3% LD 4.2% Grn 3.9%
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 1, 2015 8:01:07 GMT
Aberdeen - George St/Harbour SNP 47.1 Lab 24.3 LD 12.1 Grn 8.7 Con 7.8 (SNP elected) Aberdeen - Midstocket/Rosemount SNP 51.2 Lab 24.2 Con 11.2 LD 6.9 Grn 6.5 Cherwell: Con 40.2 Lab 33.4 UKIP 10.1 LD 9.9 Grn 6.4 East Ayrshire: SNP 55.4 Lab 21.2 Con 20.1 Grn 3.3 Fife: SNP 57.6 Lab 34.7 Grn 4.5 Con 3.2 Moray: Ind 40.6 SNP 38.1 Con 13.2 Grn 8.1 (Ind elected) Stirling: SNP 45.7 Lab 36.6 Con 10.0 Grn 7.7 West Lothian: SNP 43.0 Con 29.4 Lab 14.2 Grn 6.1 Ld 4.1 No desc 3.2
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 1, 2015 20:00:47 GMT
11 entries this week with Mark Senior getting 10 additional faults for adding to 110% in Aberdeen, George Street / Harbour. Maxque has an Independent rather than a No Description in West Lothian but I have not faulted this. Mark Senior had 0% for the Liberal Democrat and No Description in West Lot6hian whilst Pete Whitehead had 0% for No Description but these are not faultable.
Aberdeen, George Street / Harbour: 10 SNP ahead on first preferences, Just Looking Labour & SNP tied. - Robert Waller, Maxque & Pete Whitehead have SNP winning on first preferences, David Boothroyd essentially also on 50% Aberdeen, Midstocket / Rosemount: 10 SNP ahead on first preferences, Just Looking Labour ahead - Maxque only one to have SNP winning on first preferences although David Boothroyd essentially also on 50% Cherwell, Banbury Grimsbury & Castle: 7 Labour gain from Conservative, Arthur vFiggis, Lennon, Pete Whitehead & Tony Otim Conservative hold - Arthur Figgis's prediction: Con 42.7%, Lab 41.2%, UKIP 8.6%, LD 4.6%, Green 2.9% East Ayrshire, Irnvine Valley: 10 SNP ahead on first preferences, Just Looking Labour ahead - all but David Boothroyd, hempie and Just Looking have SNP winning on first preferences Fife, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences with all but Just Looking have SNP winning on first preferences Moray, Heldon & Laich: 6 SNP ahead on first preferences, Arthur Figgis, David Boothroyd, Just Looking, Maxque & Tony Otim Independent ahead Stirling, Stirling East: 10 SNP ahead on first preference, Just Looking Labour ahead - David Boothroyd & Pete Whitehead have SNP winning on first preferences West Lothian, Linlithgow: 10 have SNP ahead on first preference, Just Looking Conservative ahead - no one has SNP winning on first preferences
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 3, 2015 7:41:59 GMT
Apologies but out all day yesterday returning home after midnight.
Aberdeen, George Sreet / Harbour Robert Waller 5.3 faults, David Boothroyd 5.6, Arthur Figgis 6.2, hempie 8.8, Pete Whitehead 10.7, Greenhert 13.3, Maxque 13.4, Tony Otim 16.9, Lennon 17.6, Mark Senior 17.1+10, Just Looking 29.3+5
Aberdeen, Midstocket / Rosemount Robert Weller 15.7 faults, Mark Senior 17.8, Pete Whitehead 20.3, hempie 21.8, Greenhert 23.7, Maxque 25.7, Tony Otim 27.6, David Boothroyd 27.7, Lennon 29.0, Arthur Figgis 30.3, Just Looking 37.7+10
Cherwell, Grimsbury & Castle David Boothroyd 6.2 faults, Mark Senior 7.9, Robert Waller 11.5, Greenhert & hempie 12.0, Maxque 16.4, Arthur Figgis 10.1+10, Pete Whitehead 14.5+10, Tony Otim 23.1+10, Just Looking 34.2, Lennon 29.9+10
East Ayrshire, Irvine Valley Maxque 8.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 12.6, Tony Otim 13.0, Arthur Figgis 13.3, Robert Waller 13.9, David Boothroyd 17.5, hempie 19.5, Mark Senior 19.6, Greenhert 23.9, Lennon 27.9, Just Looking 47.5+10
Fife, Glenrothes & Kinglassie David Boothroyd & Maxque 6.3 faults, Mark Senior 8.3, Tony Otim 8.7, Pete Whitehead 8.9, Arthur Figgis 9.5, Robert Waller 10.3, hempie 12.3, Lennon 13.7, Greenhert 16.0, Just Looking 38.0
Moray, Heldon & Laich Just Looking 8.1 faults, David Boothroyd 9.7, Tony Otim 18.2, Maxque 19.6, Arthur Figgis 21.4, Robert Waller 13.7+10, hempie 17.7+10, Pete Whitehead 18.6+10, Mark Senior 21.8+10, Greenhert 23.7+10, Lennon 27.7+10
Stirling, Stirling East Maxque 4.1 faults, Tony Otim 5.9, hempie 7.4, Robert Waller 7.9, Greenhert 9.4, Arthur Figgis 9.7, Pete Whitehead 9.8, Mark Senior 9.9, David Boothroyd 11.6, Lennon 16.3, Just Looking 14.4+10
West Lothian, Linlithgow Greenhert 11.0 faults, Lennon 17.6, Tony Otim 20.8, Robert Waller 21.8, hempie 27.6, Maxque 31.2, Mark Senior & Pete Whitehead 32.9, David Boothroyd 33.3, Arthur Figgis 38.3, Just Looking 39.8+10
and for the week:
110.2 Robert Waller 117.9 David Boothroyd
125.4 Maxque 137.2 hempie
143.1 Greenhert 144.2 Tony Otim
148.2 Pete Whitehead 148.9 Arthur Figgis 155.3 Mark Senior
199.9 Lennon 294.0 Just Looking
Objections please by 9.00 am Monday.
8 by-elections next week, 2 on Wednesday and 6 on Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 3, 2015 12:27:42 GMT
Congratulations to Robert for the week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2015 9:47:23 GMT
I do feel as though I was putting my finger in the air to check the political wind, and somebody must have been blowing from the other direction so as to give me a false reading.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 6, 2015 21:34:09 GMT
October 7th
Riverside - Cardiff Steffan Bateman (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 3 Ruksana Begum (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 28 Gareth Bennett (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5 Sean Driscoll (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 5 Gwilym Owen (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 4 Hannah Pudner (The Green Party / Plaid Werdd) 6 Caro Wild (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 49
An Taobh Siar agus Nis - Eilean Siar
Richard Froggart (Independent) 25 Gavin Humphreys (Scottish Green Party) 20 John MacLeod 55
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Post by lennon on Oct 6, 2015 21:49:09 GMT
October 7th
Riverside - Cardiff Steffan Bateman (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2 Ruksana Begum (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 35 Gareth Bennett (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 8 Sean Driscoll (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 10 Gwilym Owen (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 3 Hannah Pudner (The Green Party / Plaid Werdd) 2 Caro Wild (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 40
An Taobh Siar agus Nis - Eilean Siar
Richard Froggart (Independent) 45 Gavin Humphreys (Scottish Green Party) 20 John MacLeod 35
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Post by greenhert on Oct 6, 2015 22:03:33 GMT
My predictions for the local by-elections of 7th October are as follows:
Cardiff UA, Riverside: Lab 40, Plaid Cymru 34, Con 8, Green 6, UKIP 6, Lib Dem 3, TUSC 3.
Eilean Siar UA, An Taobh Siar agus Nis: Richard Froggart (Independent) 45, John MacLeod (No Description) 42, Scottish Greens 13.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 6, 2015 23:10:54 GMT
Cardiff Lab 44 Plaid 30 Con 10 Green 5 UKIP 4 Lib Dem 4 TUSC 3 Eileen No Desc 47 Ind 34 Green 19
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