By-elections - September 10th

[maxque]

Leith Walk - Edinburgh -Resignation of Deidre Brock (SNP), the new MP for Edinburgh North & Leith and resignation of Maggie Chapman (Green), due to being selected as the lead candidate on the North East Scotland list and, consequently, moving to Dundee.

2012: SNP 1735/502, Lab 1674/937, Grn 1593, Con 637, LD 400, Ind 109/91, TUSC 109, Lib 69 (winners: SNP, Lab, Grn, Lab on 10th count; final count Lab 1350, Con 816)
2008: SNP 2550, LD 2170, Lab 1937/1144, Grn 1754, Con 1114, Solidarity 203, Liberal 193, Socialist 182, Ind 16 (winners: SNP, LD, Grn, Lab on 8th count; final between the 2 Lab)

Marion Donaldson (Scottish Labour Party)
Mo Hussain (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Tom Laird (Scottish Libertarian Party)
Alan Melville (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Gordon Murdie (Scottish Conservative & Unionist)
Susan Rae (Scottish Green Party)
Natalie Reid (Scottish Socialist Party)
Lewis Ritchie (Scottish National Party (SNP))
John Scott (Independent)
Bruce Whitehead (Left Unity)


Fant – Maidstone BC – Death of Alistair Black (Conservative).
2015-2019 term

2015: Con 1255, LD 930, Lab 860, UKIP 742, Grn 434
2014: Lab 595, UKIP 542, Grn 513, Con 451, LD 418
2012: Con 610, Lab 548, Grn 442, LD 311
2011: Con 727, LD 661, Lab 542, Grn 526
2010: LD 1704, Con 1344, Grn 480, Lab 382
Oct 2009 by: LD 702, Con 393, Grn 317, Lab 102
2008: Con 679, LD 562, Lab 470, Grn 326
2007: LD 773, Con 454, Grn 342, Lab 245, Ind 109
2006: LD 656, Con 460, Lab 301, Grn 223, Ind 120
2004: Lab 693, LD 619, Con 437, UKIP 197, Grn 121
2003: LD 724, Lab 593, Con 274, UKIP 68
2002: Lab 726/644/621, LD 600/494, Con 336/323, Grn 231/202, UKIP 142

Keith Adkinson (Labour Party)
Matt Boughton (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Mike Hogg (Independent)
Rosaline Janko (Liberal Democrat)
Stuart Jeffery (Green Party)
Colin Taylor (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Midlothian West - Midlothian -Resignation of Owen Thompson (SNP), the new MP for Midlothian.

2012: SNP 930/789, Lab 776/762, Con 462, LD 246, Grn 226, Ind 103, TUSC 41 (winners: SNP, Lab, SNP on 6th count; final count SNP 1071, Lab 966, SNP 900, Lab 856 (all below quota))
2008: SNP 1981, Lab 1506, LD 868, Con 634, Ind 259/220/188, Socialist 108, Had Enough 105, Solidarity 99 (winners: SNP, Lab, LD on 9th count; final count LD 1206, Con 817)

Jane Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Daya Feldwick (Scottish Green Party)
Ian Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party)
Kelly Parry (Scottish National Party (SNP))
David Tedford
Pauline Winchester (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)

Blackheath – Sandwell MB – Death of Malcolm Bridges (Labour).
2014-2018 term

2015: Lab 2418, Con 1696, UKIP 1336
2014: Lab 1090, UKIP 1003, Con 573, Grn 111
2012: Lab 1324, Con 860, Sandwell Traditional Independent Party 305
2011: Lab 1880, Con 1326
2010: Lab 2272, Con 1942, LD 726, BNP 555
2008: Con 1497, Lab 1016, LD 258
2007: Lab 1341, Con 1027, BNP 633, Grn 132
2006: Con 1330, Lab 1265, LD 267
2004: Con 1369/1237/1155, Lab 1368/1346/1310

Sandwell Traditional Independent Party, also called Sandwell Traditional Conservatives is a group of dissident Conservatives, created and led by Tony Ward, after he was deposed as Sandwell Conservative leader. Their candidate in that ward was the 2006-2010 councillor, Shirley Ching.

Shirley Ching (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ben Groom (Green Party)
Ian Keeling (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Danny Millard (Labour Party)

West Thurrock & South Stifford – Thurrock UA – Resignation of Terry Brookes (Labour) after he has been suspended from Labour Party due to being under investigation about possession of indecent images of children. He had been fired from the Cabinet in July due to failing to attend some meetings.
2014 by-2018 term

2015: Lab 2009, UKIP 1237, Con 1034
Oct 2014 by: Lab 903, UKIP 621, Con 270
2014: Lab 1054, UKIP 760, Con 340, LD 73
2012: Lab 815, UKIP 321, Con 212, Ind 180, LD 47
2011: Lab 951, Con 578, BNP 193, LD 87
2010: Lab 1628, Con 1193, BNP 574
2008: Lab 668, Con 586, BNP 386
2007: Lab 676, BNP 478, Con 459
2006: Lab 608, BNP 592, Con 471
2004: Con 517/477/469, BNP 404, Lab 404/397/246

Helen Adams (UKIP)
Tony Coughlin (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Cliff Holloway (Labour Party)

Southborough North – Tunbridge Wells BC – Death of Mike Rusbridge (Conservative), former mayor of the borough.
2014-2018 term

2015: Con 1343, Lab 372, LD 357, UKIP 256
2014: Con 790, Lab 233, UKIP 219, LD 181
2011: Con 829, LD 395, Lab 220, UKIP 139
2010: Con 1335, LD 927
2007: Con 748, LD 544, Lab 80
2006: Con 797, LD 474, Lab 107
2003: LD 577, Con 553, Grn 61
2002: Con 618/531, LD 545/475

William O’Shea (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Trevor Poile (Liberal Democrat)
Joe Simmons (The Conservative Party Candidate)

[David Ashforth]

	Ward Maps	Census Maps
EDINBURGH - Leith Walk	link
MAIDSTONE - Fant	link	link
MIDLOTHIAN - Midlothian West	link
SANDWELL - Blackheath	link	link
THURROCK - West Thurrock & South Stifford	link	link
TUNBRIDGE WELLS - Southborough North	link	link

[Devil Wincarnate]

I wonder what was the last council by-election in England without a Labour candidate? (excluding parish and town)

[The Bishop]

Just last month, I think.

[greenhert]

There was also a by-election without a Labour candidate in Elmbridge, Surrey not too long ago. This situation tends to occur in more affluent areas that are also either rural or semi-urban (i.e. small or medium-sized traditional market towns).

[froome]

Fant (Maidstone) should be a fascinating contest. The 2014 result shows that all 5 parties could win this ward, it must have been one of the closest 5 way results in the country. I assume the 2015 result was influenced by the general election.

The Independent candidate appears to have been a Conservative councillor until very recently, whose son was asked to leave the party, which should add extra spice to the election.

Our candidate has stood here on many occasions and must have a fair amount of personal support. It would be good to see a Green breakthrough here, and Stuart would make a good councillor.

[Tony Otim]

Some thoughts on Leith Walk. I've not been involved in the campaign due to other commitments, but I used to live in the ward and pass through it on the way to work every day. Some of the predictions on the other thread are interesting (I'll give £20 to charity if the SNP get near 50% let alone 60% or if the Greens drop below 10% in this ward. Realistically the 15% we got in 2007 would be the veru bottom of my expectations.)

Not much sign of activity in the run up to the election, although left unity were out leafletting on Leith Walk last week. Of course, it being Left Unity that may have had absiolutely nothing to do with the by-election

This morning all the polling stations have boards from the 5 main parties, one station had tellers from Labour and SNP and I saw a car with SNP flags.

The SNP should comfortably top the poll and achieve quota on 1st prefs, but I'd be surprised if they got that much more that 40%. Labour will probably be second and the Greens third on 1st prefs, with Con 4th and LDs 5th. The other 5 candidates won't get more than 7-8% combined at best.

The gap between Lab and Green will be crucial - any more that 5% and Labour will comfortably take the second seat. If the Greens lead, I can't see Labour coming through. If the gap is a few percent, which would be my guess, then it could be very close. In that case I'd guess the SNP surplus could put the Greens just in the lead which may marginally increase with transfers from SSP and Left Unity, but it would all come down to LD and Con transfers. Pre-referendum in Edinburgh, the Green would be more transfer friendly to both groups, but in the current climate it remains to be seen if there would be a significant unionist transfer in a Lab vs Grn battle. My gut feeling is that the LD vote may break marginally in our favour, but not a lot in it. A significant proportion of the Con vote won't transfer at all, but what does may break heavily enough for Labour to give it to them.

Of course, that would leave them with 3 incumbents in a ward where they're only likely to get 1 elected in 2017, which could be an initeresting selection battle.

[Pete Whitehead]

Tbf most of the predictions appear to be in line with what you're suggesting in respect of the SNP share. There is one obvious outlier in there, from someone who specialises in outliers

[Tony Otim]

SNP and Greens both have stalls out on Leith Walk now.

SSP have their usual stall on Princes St, which isn't in the ward and has nothing to do with the by-election, but has Colin Fox and his microphone. Guess it shows the priorities.

[bolbridge]

Sept 9, 2015 7:57:55 GMT froome said:

Fant (Maidstone) should be a fascinating contest. The 2014 result shows that all 5 parties could win this ward, it must have been one of the closest 5 way results in the country. I assume the 2015 result was influenced by the general election.

The Independent candidate appears to have been a Conservative councillor until very recently, whose son was asked to leave the party, which should add extra spice to the election.

Our candidate has stood here on many occasions and must have a fair amount of personal support. It would be good to see a Green breakthrough here, and Stuart would make a good councillor.

I suspect the LDs will win Fant with Lab, Grn and UKIP all heavily squeezed.

[maxque]

Midlothian counts on Friday, result expected mid-afternoon.

[David Ashforth]

[maxque]

Edinburgh counts tonight. No clue for the 4 other ones.

[marksenior]

Thurrock counting but apparently they have lost a ballot box

[maxque]

All Englnd counts are tonight.

Maidstone expected around midnight.
Thurrock should declare soon, turnout dismal.
Sandwell result expected at 11PM, so, should be soon too.

[maxque]

Leith Walk expected at 00:30.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

TUNBRIDGE WELLS Southborough North

Joe Simmons (The Conservative Party Candidate) 483
Trevor Poile (Liberal Democrat) 434
William O’Shea (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 188

[iain]

Tunbridge Wells, Southborough
Con - 483 (43.7%)
LD - 434 (39.3%)
UKIP - 188 (17.0%)

[David Ashforth]

[iain]

That's a tad disappointing