Bristol Sept 18, 2015 8:07:40 GMT
Post by froome on Sept 18, 2015 8:07:40 GMT
From the people I've spoken with in Bristol (which is the only evidence I can cite) I think that some of the people who voted for Ferguson were the 'plague on all their houses' type who either don't normally vote or would traditionally vote Labour or Conservative but felt disengaged from both those parties. I doubt whether Ferguson will pick up many of these votes again, partly because he is now an elected politician and therefore seen as one of 'them', but also because many are not happy with what he has done while in office.
However, he is likely to pick up quite a lot of votes from people who voted Green or Lib Dem last time and who like what he has been doing. My guess is that he could get half the first preference vote of those who would see themselves as being Green voters.
In that scenario, the likely outcome if Ferguson v Labour again with the Green candidate a distant third.
I could, of course, be completely wrong and a Green candidate could keep the vote high, which would then make the contest very interesting. That would only happen if it was a very good candidate.