The logic here is that Redbridge is moving towards Labour, and has clearly done so since 2012. Labour will surely get a clear majority in Redbridge. The election will therefore be decided in Havering. This is the strongest UKIP area in London, with a political culture and demographics very similar to Thurrock (yes I know parts of Upminster and Emerson Park are more up-market). If UKIP poll to their potential, the Conservative majority over Labour may not be enough to outweigh their deficit in Redbridge. It's a very working class Conservative vote in Romford and Harold Wood, and they may not be enthused by the government at the moment.
Keith Prince (C) 64,483 (37.70%, +0.11%) Ivana Bartoletti (Lab) 63,045 (36.86%, +2.02%) Lawrence Webb (UKIP) 26,788 (15.66%, +8.98%) Lee Burkwood (Green) 9,617 (5.62%, +1.95%) Ian Sanderson (LD) 7,105 (4.15%, -0.39%)