South Down Apr 13, 2016 21:45:24 GMT
Post by nitory on Apr 13, 2016 21:45:24 GMT
Apr 13, 2016 19:48:40 GMT Charlie S said:www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36037678
Nice little video article on South Down on the BBC .
Quite arrogant from SF to claim that they will inevitably overtake the SDLP.
Whatever happened to them having to earn people's vote and stand over their record once elected? And if things don't work out be punished for it?
As for the unionist battle, John Mccallister seems far and away the most able and likeable but not sure he'll ultimately make it.
The whole piece almost takes two unionist seats for granted, however with the unwinding of the unionist tactical vote for Ritchie she still got 3 clear quotas and SF got 2. How much more of that is still unionist tactical is hard to say, but it was close last time and the south down electorate has grown a lot in that time. Ritchie also polled too well last time and passed on a lot of votes to other parties. Without her heading up the ticket it could be a lot easier for the SDLP to balance up their ticket and see their 3 caniddate score 11-12 % each. I'd SDLP score 36-37% balanced or 38+% unbalanced I think they'll take a third seat on alliance and green transfers. They won't lose any tactical votes to SF who have over two solid quotas. That second unionist seat therefore must be a close one.
Having said that nationalists seem to be voting less so the likely result is no change but the TUV might be a good bet for taking the DUP seat.
Yes Hazard sounded very arrogant, especially since their vote went backwards last year when he was a candidate. There's a prevalent attitude in Sinn Fein and amongst its most tedious online supporters that elections are simply plots points on a graph of the party's seeming unstoppable upward momentum and any results to the contrary (W2015, LG2014, ROI2007) are merely outliers. I will feel a delightful sense of schadenfreude in a few weeks time when such individuals who argue SF definitely won't be losing a seat in WB, will gain in Foyle, UB and E Derry and could win an East Belfast seat if effort was put in, will be slapped with reality.
I think 2 unionist seats are certain this time, though not comfortably so. In 2011 the two elected unionist candidates were both above quota even with 227 of McNarry's transfers being non-transferable, the SDLP perfectly balancing still wouldn't have gained them a seat. Also 7% of Ritchie's surplus went to unionist parties, which could be up to 585 unionist voters who voted for Ritchie 1 personally (not saying all were doing that, some could be SDLP supporters who were voting personally for the unionist candidate and there's also a number of contrarian voters who have inexplicable preferences). The unionist parties scored 27.75% in the 2014 Locals plus theres 0.9% NI21 votes and 5% Alliance-Green votes, some of which unionists will pick up.
I think McCallister's chances are bleak, he was unknown to even most UUP supporters when he was selected in 2007 having only stood for a Banbridge council election in Knockiveigh DEA once before in 2005, I don't think he'll have built up enough of a personal brand for himself in the past 9 years (3 since leaving the UUP) to be in the running. The UUP candidate seems to be targeting Reilly's vote/transfers with his Anti-EU views, they also both are from Kilkeel so if Reilly is eliminated expect his votes to favour the UUP. How has Jim Wells hid what an buffoon he is for so long? The whole tirade which he referred to himself in the third person was particularly cringe-worthy. I think Wells will survive, being just ahead of McNarry by a handful of votes when he is eliminated, but far from certain.