The Alliance candidate is Kerri Blyberg The TUV candidate is Donald Crawford
Thank you, I need to stop being lazy and just taking the candidate list on wiki as definitive. I even remember seeing this on the front page of the BelTel last week.
Crawford was a candidate for Enniskillen DEA in 2014 and lost the last seat to the UUP 2nd by 70 votes. The party stood in 3 of the 6 DEAs in F-ST that year, getting 1587 votes and 3.63% . I'll have to eat my words from less than an hour ago about no fifth party getting over 3%. Doubt it will exceed 5% though, Arlene as FM will stop the DUP vote heavily leaking and the UUP are finally looking like a viable alternative to the DUP after over a decade of decline.
Sinn Fein seem to be doing their very best to lose a seat here, their candidate election posters have no further preference instructions for the other SF candidates. link Stupid decision on two fronts:
Gildernew is getting all of South Tyrone to canvass and is the most high profile nationalist candidate will be above quota on first count with a surplus to be distributed. SF should either have had 3 versions of posters with each other candidate as #2 placed in different parts of S Tyrone, or one candidate is put as the second preference in the Gildernew posters but with a trade-off of less territory to canvass for #1s. In 2011 Gildernew's surplus which went onto her SF colleagues split 1,100 Lynch - 700 Flanagan balanced enough to keep both ahead of the SDLP. With no mention of her running mates this time on posters, will it be as balanced?
When their fourth candidate is eliminated their vote needs to be distributed evenly between the two remaining ones, not going lopsided to one pushing them over the quota and effectively 'wasting' a few hundred votes. Lynch and Flanagan were elected on the final count 400 and 700 votes under the quota, If one reaches the quota this time, the SDLP would likely squeak for the final seat.
Considering moving this to an SDLP pick-up, though will their vote be too low to be able to take advantage of this disarray. Their candidate doesn't come across well in the above video and seems to follow Alasdair McDonnell's electioneering tactics of mentioning election results and local party organisation in the absence of a message which the average voter would actually care about. I get its a short video which may not influence many people, but there's much better ways to phrase such sentiments such as "We only lost out by 62 votes last time and have had encouraging council results since then, I hope I can build on this as I have an active role of working on issues XYZ as a councillor and hope to be an even more effective public servant as your MLA." rather than "vote SDLP because people voted for us a few years before, so if more do, I get elected"
Post by irish observer on May 1, 2016 20:18:29 GMT
Unionist battle should go 2 DUP and 1UUP. I didn't think McPhillips would win a seat in 2014 and all credit to him. I can't see SF winning 3 again with 4 candidates and think SDLP will benefit. Prediction: 2SF; 2DUP; 1UUP; 1SDLP.
DUP Arlene Foster 8,801 Sinn Féin Michelle Gildernew 6,614 DUP Maurice Morrow 6,602 Sinn Féin Sean Lynch 4,782 SDLP Richie McPhillips 4,014 Sinn Féin John Feely 4,002 Sinn Féin Phil Flanagan 3,449 UUP Rosemary Barton 3,018 UUP Alastair Patterson 3,010 TUV Donald Crawford 1,164 Green Tanya Jones 897 Alliance Kerri Blyberg 539 NILRC Damien Harris 285
Sinn Féin 18,847 39.95% DUP 15,403 32.65% UUP 6,028 12.78% SDLP 4,014 8.51% TUV 1,164 2.47% Green 897 1.90% Alliance 539 1.14% NILRC 285 0.60%
Huge swing from the UUP to DUP here due to the Arlene factor. Will be a tight battle for which UUP candidate wins only 8 votes separate them. Sinn Fein's 'secret' vote management plan actually paid off, the SDLP vote has continued to declined. Looking hard for any positives in this election and a minor one is Flanagan will the be the Sinn Fein candidate to lose out.
Huge swing to the DUP, their best result ever in F-ST polling 32.65%; despite Arlene's vote being the largest of any candidate in this election, she only took 57% of the DUP total vote with Morrow polling more than both UUP candidates combined. The UUP on the other hand, had their worst ever result, a mix of the Arlene bounce, Tom Elliott not being on the ballot this time and the two candidates not being as well known with Elliott's original co-option resigning due to ill-health. Mike Nesbitt going in a more liberal direction on social issues may have turned voters to the DUP.
The SDLP got very lucky here, the Sinn Fein disarray here was less of an issue in them losing a seat than unionist turnout remaining high while the nationalist vote dropped which affected SF more. The combined unionist vote share was 47.9% - the highest since the 1997 General election.
2010 - 2016 Change
2015 -2016 Change
The SDLP received over 1,300 transfers from unionist parties, in 2011 that number was only 435. When Patterson was eliminated 382 of his votes went to McPhillips over his running mate, Barton's surplus was 919 with 901 going to McPhillips. For comparison, in 2011 Morrow had a surplus from the UUP2 of 371 - only 134 votes went to the SDLP.
So could Sinn Fein have saved the third seat by only running 3 candidates? Well - yes and no. It would be mathematically possible for them to do so, but in reality a near perfect balance with 3 candidates is a near impossible task. I recreated the count but without Flanagan running and some minor adjustments to the figures:
The Sinn Fein vote is the almost same and includes the 130 non-transferable votes of Flanagan. When Flanagan was eliminated 169 of his votes went to McPhillips - some of those may be voters who support local candidates first (Flanagan and McPhillips represented the same area in Fermanagh) others may just be contrarian voters who don't like to give the same party all of their votes or misunderstand the voting system. So Sinn Fein keeps 85 of those votes and McPhillips adds 84.
Flanagan got a small amount of transfers from Foster and Morrow, I've added them onto Feeley's transfers from them. Flanagan also got 58 transfers when Greens, Alliance and NILRC when they were eliminated - I've split those transfers across the other 3 SF candidates.
Gildernew's vote total remains the same - I don't think they could have managed her vote any more than in reality. I also gave Lynch a few hundred more votes than Feeley.
Gildernew when elected had a surplus which wasn't distributed, though this came from the non-sectarian parties' transfers so their distribution wouldn't make a notable difference or could even slightly help McPhillips.
42 votes in it, with a very favourable vote split to Sinn Fein, even without the decision to run 4 candidates the odds would still have been against them holding all three here.