Incorporating the constituencies of: Brecon and Radnorshire Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Ceredigion Dwyfor Meirionnydd Llanelli Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire
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Lots of interesting constituencies here, Ceredigion, Mont and B&R all in play - on a very good day LDs win all 3, on a very bad day the opposite. Most likely result is holding B&R and keeping the other 2 close. I don't see Plaid making a breakthrough; they will presumably go for Llanelli and CWSP again - I'd expect both to stick with the current party, although Labour could gain the latter. The other 3 look pretty safe. A (somewhat unlikely) Corbyn tide would perhaps hand Labour Carmarthen East and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
Labour wins the first regional seat (Elizabeth Watson Joyce re-elected): 15,783 votes Labour wins the second regional seat (Rebecca Evans elected): 11,837 votes Plaid Cymru win the third regional seat (Simon Thomas elected): 11,277 votes Liberal Democrats win the fourth regional seat (William Powell elected): 8,949 votes
My initial thoughts are: Plaid GAIN Llanelli, Con GAIN Brecon and Radnorshire, Carmarthen East and Ceredigion are too close to call which makes that Liberal Democrat AM too close to call and the high chance of a Labour GAIN from Plaid.
Former member of Llansantffraed Community Council (2012 - 2017)
Well, I've already opined on the constituency thread that Ceredigion is an outside chance LD gain but if they have to fight some sort of rearguard action in Brecon and Radnor then that may suck up all their resources. It would be a bad election for PC if we were to lose Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr and I frankly don't see it happening. Adam Price has high recognition as a former MP there. Gut says Labour hold Llanelli and Cons hold Carmarthenshire West and SP.
I think there is a reasonable chance of Plaid gaining Llanelli, but it depends on the Labour candidate more than anything. If Plaid win then the regional list seat may be toast. And of course it depends on if the UKIP meltdown continues.
Post by pembspolitic on Sept 10, 2015 18:07:12 GMT
Right now, I'd imagine Plaid hold all their seats with a Llanelli gain + a possible CW+SP. I think montgomeryshire could be interesting - Jane Dodds ran a spirited campaign and she's running again. Kirsty should hold Brecon and Radnorshire + i think labour might fail to win a single seat in this region..paving the way for Eluned Morgan to stroll in on the regional list.
no real evidence, although polls show them 1-2 points ahead of where they were at the last assembly elections. But i am 99.9% sure plaid won't lose carms east + dinefwr..when one of their most prominent politicians and an ex-mp for the area is standing + when they increased their majority in the GE against a backdrop of 5 years of a conservative government. Helen Mary Jones has a hefty personal vote in Llanelli + Keith Davies is standing down. Ceredigion is safe for Plaid, but i understand why people think the LibDems might be problematic for a comfortable win. CW+SP - i think it will be a con hold..but i think Plaid have more of a chance than labour to gain it. From what i'm gathering from people - they're fed up of labour. (especially in West Wales where they didn't do particularly well in the last GE, even though they're in opposition in government - and in 2016 they'll be having to defend a record of government at which point i don't think the public will be kind)
Green List: Alice Hooker-Stroud Grenville Ham Pippa Pemberton Frances Bryant
Hooker-Stroud and Ham are the kind of people who, on the face of it, would appeal to someone like me (serious academic background, interest in and detailed knowledge of alternative power and technology etc). But they're Greens so I class them as simply not credible. I'm sure there are quite a lot of people in rural Wales who view the Greens as not credible and if they're going to get any traction they need to really really focus on the credible aspects of individual candidates.
If Kirsty Williams hangs on in B&R and Plaid gain Llanelli could this region conceivably elect 2 Labour and 2 UKIP AMs?
I would be very suprised if UKIP get an AM here, they have chances in Wales but I would say of the regions Mid and West Wales would be the least likely for them to get any success in.
I think 1 is certainly possible for UKIP, but 2 unlikely.
To get the second the would need to both beat the LDs (do you think you're likely to fall back from 2011 here?) and get more than 2/3 of the Labour vote. Both are possible, both together unlikely I would have thought.
Most likely result would probably be 3 Lab, 1 UKIP or possibly 2 Lab, 1 UKIP, 1 LD with those constituency results.
UKIP's best chance of a second seat would probably involve the LDs also gaining Ceredigion.
"God knows I'm no Tory, and I never set eyes on a Whig yet without feeling the need of a bath..."
I hope we don't fall back from 2011. It was only yesterday when I looked at the results and was pleased how well our vote held up here in 2011, it fell by less than 1% from 13.3% to 12.7% (compared to a Wales wide figure of 8%). I obviously hope we can get enough votes to return Kirsty and one on the list, but things could go very pear-shaped.
I'd tend to agree that after Llanelli the best chance of a seat changing hands would be Ceredigion (which would be wonderful) but again many things could happen. Would the LDs winning Ceredigion make a 2nd UKIP seat likely or would it cement in the Plaid list seat?
I'm dyslexic so please don't feel the need to draw attention to any spelling/grammar mistakes - unless they're highly amusing.