Three way fight really for the last two elections.
This will be another three way fight which will boil down to who can get their vote out...lots of Labour supporters in Pembroke and Pembroke Dock ...lots of Plaid in west Carmarthenshire...lots of Conservatives in South Pembrokeshire.
For Plaid to win they need to build up support in South Pembrokeshire - build on local pockets they have in places like Narberth and Penally. But it wont happen overnight.....but it might just be their time...
A lot of the Plaid vote in South Pembrokeshire is based on a strong personality vote, the former county councillor for Penally was astoundingly good, and her successor has worked hard, the Tenby Plaid Councillor was a prominent member of Surfers against Sewage, which got a lot of respect.... (local campaigning wins out every time). Its turning those personal votes into votes for the party that is hard, as other parties will attest. But this is very much a three way seat.
Bradley, Valerie Judith - Wales Green Party Brookes, Allan Trevor - UKIP Wales Burns, Angela Jane - Welsh Conservative Party Candidate Cameron, Alistair Ronald - Welsh Liberal Democrats Overton, Chris - Independent Save Whithybush Save Lives Thomas, Simon - Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales Tierney, Marc Liam - Welsh Labour
They're not polling this seat; they're applying Wales-wide trends to this seat and drawing conclusions.
What's most laughable about this is that, despite the fact that Westminster and Assembly constituencies are coterminous (albeit probably for the last time), some are applying a uniform swing from 2011 rather than 2015. I realise Assembly elections have a lower turnout and a different dynamic, but this can still lead to some strange calculations for the FPTP seats.
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