Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,752 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 19, 2015 12:07:46 GMT
Now that the general election is out of the way (and the Assembly elections next year are a piece of cake to calculate) us Cardis have a bit of a problem for 2017 namely boundary changes to the council (and myself being a good psephology exponent have been trying my best to rejig the 2012 results onto the new boundaries and failing). Therefore could I ask someone far more expert than myself to take the outlines as listed by the Local Government Boundary Commissioners and rejig Ceredigion 2012 to the new boundaries. The report outling the changes can be found at gov.wales/docs/lgbcw/publications/electoralreviews/110524ceredfinpropen.pdf and the map showing the changes is at gov.wales/docs/lgbcw/publications/electoralreviews/110524ceredfinmapen.pdf |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 19, 2015 12:32:31 GMT
Are you asking for notional results on the new ward boundaries? I don't see how anyone here could help with that without knowing the detailed voting behaviour of the areas involved. The importance of personal votes in this kind of area would render the task even harder (and possibly make it irrelevant)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,752
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 19, 2015 15:27:40 GMT
Are you asking for notional results on the new ward boundaries? I don't see how anyone here could help with that without knowing the detailed voting behaviour of the areas involved. The importance of personal votes in this kind of area would render the task even harder (and possibly make it irrelevant) Yes, and no. Yes, I am asking for the experts to tell me how similar the old wards are to the new wards (for instance the new Aberaeron is 100% of Aberaeron plus something of Llansantffraed), once that has been established I can then do the actual notional calculations. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on May 20, 2015 7:56:11 GMT
Given that there are going to wholesale local government changes in Wales, I doubt that Ceredigion is going to survive as a stand alone authority, so we may well have new boundaries for the new authority... Time to dust off the boundaries used for elections to the old Dyfed county? BTW does anyone have a complete set of ward maps for the old counties?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,752
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 20, 2015 15:25:20 GMT
Given that there are going to wholesale local government changes in Wales, I doubt that Ceredigion is going to survive as a stand alone authority, so we may well have new boundaries for the new authority... Time to dust off the boundaries used for elections to the old Dyfed county? BTW does anyone have a complete set of ward maps for the old counties? I can't say I have a map of the Dyfed but I do have the results from Dyfed going back to the first elections (and therefore have the 1985, 1989 and 1993 results to hand) |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on May 21, 2015 7:06:39 GMT
In the old South Glamorgan the Whitchurch Ward of Cardiff was split into two Divisions for South Glamorgan each electing one councillor... I'd imagine the combined authorities to have smaller number of councillors that the combined number of councillors on each contributing authority, so I'd say the old pre reorganisation county divisions would be a reasonable guide, though very out of date.
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