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Oct 7, 2019 19:43:51 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2019 19:43:51 GMT
Overall, it's clear there is a Tory lead and the Lib Dems are challenging or close to challenging Labour for second. Otherwise!?!?! As long as the Conservatives lead Labour at least moderately, even a 5% deficit for Labour as against the LDs would still leave the LibDems far short of matching Labour's number of seats in the HoC. That depends on how the Tories are doing. LD 35, Lab 30, Con 25 would see LD win lots of seats. With a Tory lead I agree, but I think the "challenging for 2nd place" comment was in the context of polls and thetefore % not seats Edit: just read your post properly and see the Tory lead qualifier-sorry
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 19:46:41 GMT
Post by casualobserver on Oct 7, 2019 19:46:41 GMT
As long as the Conservatives lead Labour at least moderately, even a 5% deficit for Labour as against the LDs would still leave the LibDems far short of matching Labour's number of seats in the HoC. That depends on how the Tories are doing. LD 35, Lab 30, Con 25 would see LD win lots of seats. With a Tory lead I agree, but I think the "challenging for 2nd place" comment was in the context of polls and thetefore % not seats I did preface my comment with the words "As long as the Conservatives lead Labour at least moderately"!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Oct 8, 2019 11:07:05 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2019 11:07:05 GMT
Labour mid-twenties is consistent and more evidence that they are in serious trouble. You know - I was told as a young un that when somebody repeats the same thing over and over and over again, its as much themselves they are trying to convince as others The polls currently largely agree on the Labour score even if little else, its not hard to see a couple of plausible changes in the near future though: 1) as seems increasingly possible, we don't actually exit the EU on Halloween despite all Johnson's previous "do or die" rhetoric. Now he and Cummings will noisily try to blame this on everybody else and may well have some success in doing so, but its still easy to see the Tories dropping a few points to BxP. 2) in the fallout from the above, the government loses a VoNC and as per constitutional convention Corbyn ignores Swinson's increasingly frantic pleas to "step aside" and puts himself forward as the next PM. LibDems are thus unavoidably put on the spot and if (as seems likely) they either vote against or abstain, some of the left wing "hard remain" support they have gathered since the spring could well return to Labour. Again only perhaps a few points, but combined with the above this would be enough to change the GE calculus from the present "leaning Tory" to "genuine toss-up". And that's before we consider what might happen during an actual campaign.....
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BMG
Oct 8, 2019 12:19:18 GMT
Post by casualobserver on Oct 8, 2019 12:19:18 GMT
Labour mid-twenties is consistent and more evidence that they are in serious trouble. You know - I was told as a young un that when somebody repeats the same thing over and over and over again, its as much themselves they are trying to convince as others The polls currently largely agree on the Labour score even if little else, its not hard to see a couple of plausible changes in the near future though: 1) as seems increasingly possible, we don't actually exit the EU on Halloween despite all Johnson's previous "do or die" rhetoric. Now he and Cummings will noisily try to blame this on everybody else and may well have some success in doing so, but its still easy to see the Tories dropping a few points to BxP. 2) in the fallout from the above, the government loses a VoNC and as per constitutional convention Corbyn ignores Swinson's increasingly frantic pleas to "step aside" and puts himself forward as the next PM. LibDems are thus unavoidably put on the spot and if (as seems likely) they either vote against or abstain, some of the left wing "hard remain" support they have gathered since the spring could well return to Labour. Again only perhaps a few points, but combined with the above this would be enough to change the GE calculus from the present "leaning Tory" to "genuine toss-up". And that's before we consider what might happen during an actual campaign..... In these uncertain times, anything is possible - even a revival in the fortunes of the Labour Party! Anyone who says they're definitely down and out is of course plain wrong. And yes, the repetition of the mantra that Labour are doomed is, at very least in part, an exercise in self-assurance …. and for many of us*, truly fearful of the effects of Corbyn's and McDonnell's hands on the levers of power, we need every bit of comfort that we can garner in that respect. * "many of us" currently clearly currently equates to a majority of the country, including even a minority of Labour Party voters!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Oct 8, 2019 12:26:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2019 12:26:34 GMT
I want to reassure you we mean no harm. I want to change the world for the better not the worse. No mal content i promise
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 8, 2019 12:30:03 GMT
Labour mid-twenties is consistent and more evidence that they are in serious trouble. You know - I was told as a young un that when somebody repeats the same thing over and over and over again, its as much themselves they are trying to convince as others The polls currently largely agree on the Labour score even if little else, its not hard to see a couple of plausible changes in the near future though: 1) as seems increasingly possible, we don't actually exit the EU on Halloween despite all Johnson's previous "do or die" rhetoric. Now he and Cummings will noisily try to blame this on everybody else and may well have some success in doing so, but its still easy to see the Tories dropping a few points to BxP. 2) in the fallout from the above, the government loses a VoNC and as per constitutional convention Corbyn ignores Swinson's increasingly frantic pleas to "step aside" and puts himself forward as the next PM. LibDems are thus unavoidably put on the spot and if (as seems likely) they either vote against or abstain, some of the left wing "hard remain" support they have gathered since the spring could well return to Labour. Again only perhaps a few points, but combined with the above this would be enough to change the GE calculus from the present "leaning Tory" to "genuine toss-up". And that's before we consider what might happen during an actual campaign..... If your number 1) happens then there is no need for a VOC in Corbyn or anyone else to prevent a no deal Brexit, and we simply proceed to a General Election. Whether in November a VONC in Johnson would pass or not is not clear, but the Lib Dems would certainly vote for it. More likely is that Johnson calls an election anyway, since the present House will never break the deadlock. Once the threat of no deal on Halloween is past, Corbyn has committed to supporting that.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,337
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 8, 2019 13:37:00 GMT
I believe in the UK we use an electoral system called First Past The Post In this system, Labour polling high 20s is liable to result in many lost seats, few wins. For the Lib Dems, low 20s would deliver many creditable second places, and a handful of wins. For the Conservatives, mid 30s usually equates to a poor result, but the presence in these polls of the Brexit party and the both Labour and Lib Dems performing poorly, the Conservatives might hope to stand still. If the Brexit Party stand aside in all their targets, the Conservatives win big. If the Greens save 100 deposits, it perhaps gives the Conservatives 20 seats. In Scotland, the SNP will expect to win upwards of fifty seats on 40% of the vote. This matters little. They need to win 50%+ 1 in the only vote that matters to them, and they are no closer than they ever were. But its fifty seats that Labour cant win. Maybe, maybe the Brexit Party standing aside for the Tories actually hurts the Tories in a lot of marginal because to take the seats they need Brexit to take votes from Labour who are never going to vote Tory and that won't happen if the Brexit Party are seen as obvious Tory stooges. Maybe the SNP take more from the Conservatives than Labour (after all they have twice the number to lose). Maybe the vote distribution of all parties will be so different from what it was in when they polled similar figures in the past that there will be some very strange results...
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BMG
Oct 8, 2019 14:47:50 GMT
Post by casualobserver on Oct 8, 2019 14:47:50 GMT
I want to reassure you we mean no harm. I want to change the world for the better not the worse. No mal content i promise I fully accept your sincerity, @priceofdawn. I know that Corbyn and McDonnell "mean no harm". That's what makes their zealotry all the more frightening.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Oct 8, 2019 16:09:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2019 16:09:02 GMT
I believe in the UK we use an electoral system called First Past The Post In this system, Labour polling high 20s is liable to result in many lost seats, few wins. For the Lib Dems, low 20s would deliver many creditable second places, and a handful of wins. For the Conservatives, mid 30s usually equates to a poor result, but the presence in these polls of the Brexit party and the both Labour and Lib Dems performing poorly, the Conservatives might hope to stand still. If the Brexit Party stand aside in all their targets, the Conservatives win big. If the Greens save 100 deposits, it perhaps gives the Conservatives 20 seats. In Scotland, the SNP will expect to win upwards of fifty seats on 40% of the vote. This matters little. They need to win 50%+ 1 in the only vote that matters to them, and they are no closer than they ever were. But its fifty seats that Labour cant win. will brexit stand aside? If they do will they flock to the Tories as ukip were supposed to?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,203
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Oct 8, 2019 17:10:57 GMT
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Post by cogload on Oct 8, 2019 17:10:57 GMT
From my gut finger in air feel I reckon this one is about close. However polls mean zilch until November 1st.
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Deleted
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Oct 8, 2019 21:45:47 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2019 21:45:47 GMT
If we dont leave on the 31st im convinced Farage will screw Boris best he can
I also agree polls are interesting but lets see nov 1st
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Nov 10, 2019 19:18:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 19:18:54 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,203
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Nov 10, 2019 19:29:03 GMT
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Post by cogload on Nov 10, 2019 19:29:03 GMT
They are herding.
Moo.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Nov 10, 2019 19:33:04 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 19:33:04 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2019 19:34:26 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 10, 2019 19:44:41 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,203
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Post by cogload on Nov 10, 2019 19:47:06 GMT
I am going to milk this one.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2019 19:49:04 GMT
I am going to milk this one. I feel we have reached the pint of no return.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2019 19:50:36 GMT
I am going to milk this one. Pull the other one. 👽 Udder one! Udder one!
get with the plan!
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2019 19:59:35 GMT
Udder one! Udder one!
get with the plan! The Udderly magnificent 5 year plan? 👽 The very same! You don't need to go through all of it though. Just skim read it.
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