Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2015 21:00:57 GMT
Polls tentatively added today in the following Ulster threads:
Belfast South
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
South Antrim
Foyle
Strangford
Upper Bann
This is a tricky part of the world to predict for reasons I'm sure everyone can appreciate, but any feedback would be appreciated. There's a DUP and an Independent Unionist option included on Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2015 12:40:02 GMT
These are the most likely Conservative gains from Labour, according to us. Percentages are for those predicting Con gain:
Southampton Itchen: 25.58%
Dumfries and Galloway: 17.07%
Wakefield: 11.54%
Great Grimsby: 11.11%
Wirral South: 9.09%
Blackpool South: 8.33%
Exeter: 8.33%
Halifax: 8.33%
Gedling: 7.14%
Corby: 6.25%
Bolton West: 6.25%
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 6.25%
Telford: 5%
Plymouth Moor View: 4%
Dudley North: 3.85%
Westminster North: 3.23%
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 7, 2015 12:41:12 GMT
These are the most likely Conservative gains from Labour, according to us. Percentages are for those predicting Con gain: Southampton Itchen: 25.58% Dumfries and Galloway: 17.07% Wakefield: 11.54% Great Grimsby: 11.11% Wirral South: 9.09% Blackpool South: 8.33% Exeter: 8.33% Halifax: 8.33% Gedling: 7.14% Corby: 6.25% Bolton West: 6.25% Newcastle-under-Lyme: 6.25% Telford: 5% Plymouth Moor View: 4% Dudley North: 3.85% Westminster North: 3.23% Interesting. Personally I would say Hampstead is the second-most likely Con gain after Itchen but obviously that's very much a minority view. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Feb 7, 2015 17:14:00 GMT
Whilst it will probably be no change in the outcome of the seats with a poll added, I feel that, in the interests of completeness, they should be added to the following seats (if swan doesn't mind):
Finchley & Golders Green, Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Isle of Wight, Folkestone & Hythe, Portsmouth North (UKIP), Lewes, Dover, Chatham & Aylesford (Lab & UKIP), Ceredigion
Shrewsbury & Atcham, too, has I believe been put forward by some as a shock Labour gain?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2015 18:57:04 GMT
Whilst it will probably be no change in the outcome of the seats with a poll added, I feel that, in the interests of completeness, they should be added to the following seats (if swan doesn't mind): Finchley & Golders Green, Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Isle of Wight, Folkestone & Hythe, Portsmouth North (UKIP), Lewes, Dover, Chatham & Aylesford (Lab & UKIP), Ceredigion Shrewsbury & Atcham, too, has I believe been put forward by some as a shock Labour gain? I've now added polls to all the above threads. Of course I don't mind. On paper, the Lib Dems look too well entrenched to lose Ceredigion, but the same might have been said in the run up to 1992. I'm intrigued - who thinks Labour will win Shrewsbury and Atcham, and why? |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 7, 2015 19:03:02 GMT
I need to psych myself up to go though the polls this time. Could take a few hours.  |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on Feb 7, 2015 19:24:06 GMT
Whilst it will probably be no change in the outcome of the seats with a poll added, I feel that, in the interests of completeness, they should be added to the following seats (if swan doesn't mind): Finchley & Golders Green, Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Isle of Wight, Folkestone & Hythe, Portsmouth North (UKIP), Lewes, Dover, Chatham & Aylesford (Lab & UKIP), Ceredigion Shrewsbury & Atcham, too, has I believe been put forward by some as a shock Labour gain? I've now added polls to all the above threads. Of course I don't mind. On paper, the Lib Dems look too well entrenched to lose Ceredigion, but the same might have been said in the run up to 1992. I'm intrigued - who thinks Labour will win Shrewsbury and Atcham, and why? I'm sure I've heard people mention Shrewsbury, I think due to the high Lib Dem vote? |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 7, 2015 23:31:57 GMT
Updated the spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RLXcjEC53skefzikBQ9GC9CzMMqDdGisXxPzQ02ayM/edit#gid=0Latest projection: Lab 286 Con 273 LD 33 SNP 31 UKIP 4 PC 3 Green 1 Spkr 1 NI 18 {1 change: Belfast East is DUP gain from Alliance} Changes from a week ago: Lab instead of Con (4): Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South, Stroud, Morecambe & Lunesdale. Lab instead of UKIP (1): Thurrock. SNP instead of Lab (2): Stirling, Kilmarnock & Loudoun. Lab instead of SNP (2): Glenrothes, Paisley & Renfrewshire North. Last week the figures were Lab 281, Con 277, LD 33, SNP 31, UKIP 5. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2015 22:13:12 GMT
Poll added to Birmingham, Northfield.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2015 17:31:41 GMT
I have received a request to add a poll to the Hartlepool thread - which I have now added - in response to Nigel Farage confidently predicting a UKIP gain in the seat.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2015 18:19:38 GMT
I have received a request to add a poll to the Hartlepool thread - which I have now added - in response to Nigel Farage confidently predicting a UKIP gain in the seat. I confidently predict that labour will win Arundel and the South Downs |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2015 19:24:41 GMT
I have received a request to add a poll to the Hartlepool thread - which I have now added - in response to Nigel Farage confidently predicting a UKIP gain in the seat. I confidently predict that labour will win Arundel and the South Downs Funnily enough it was one of the Labour members who asked me to create the Hartlepool poll, just to see how many of us agree with Farage's prediction. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 10, 2015 20:06:37 GMT
I have received a request to add a poll to the Hartlepool thread - which I have now added - in response to Nigel Farage confidently predicting a UKIP gain in the seat. Taking actions in response to Nigel Farage's predictions? That way lies madness. |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 10, 2015 22:24:43 GMT
I have received a request to add a poll to the Hartlepool thread - which I have now added - in response to Nigel Farage confidently predicting a UKIP gain in the seat. I confidently predict that labour will win Arundel and the South Downs That is less likely Joe. And I don't think the underlying suggestion is deserving of quite that level of sarcasm. This is the time for speculation, aspiration and generally bigging up. The Conservatives think too small and are retreating because of it. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2015 19:06:53 GMT
Here's a bit of work I did over the weekend. Basically used Poll of Polls figures, then added in an incumbency bias. Then, as it was far from detailed analysis, I left out the N. Ireland seats, gave UKIP their 2 current seats + Thanet South (just to make it a little more realistic). Other than that, I havent factored in any regional differences, local issues, candidates issues etc and therefore is not a prediction as such, but (in Peter Snow's words) is "just a bit of fun".
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rpGTdG__XdasJxiZyMv3FAEeHctj9O94t0lZxFqWw4/edit#gid=1793099435
Interesting to note how similar the results are to the Vote UK prediction results mentioned elsewhere in this thread. Very similar indeed - although a few seats differ here and there as you HAVE taken into account constituency factors/issues etc.
The thrust of both projections is that neither large party may be able to form a government with either JUST the Lib Dems or the SNP.
Interesting times ahead! |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 2, 2015 21:36:31 GMT
Cambridge is Liberal Democrat held, not Conservative.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2015 21:50:11 GMT
Bonus points David for spotting the deliberate mistake  Actually I had Cambridge as a Lab gain but should have shown it as from LDs, not the Conservatives. It changes the Con/LD numbers up/down by 1 but the overall pattern remains. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2015 21:59:20 GMT
So my updated figures for the main parties are now:
Lab 285
Con 275
SNP 34
LD 30
The latest UK vote prediction figures are:
Lab 286
Con 273
SNP 31
LD 33
Assuming they are both more or less accurate (and nothing major changes in the next 2 months), we would be heading for a situation whereby a Con-LD or a Lab-LD or a Lab-SNP arrangement would not be enough for a majority.
|
|
|
|
Post by casualobserver on Mar 2, 2015 23:56:02 GMT
When (or perhaps I should say if!) there is any significant switch in public opinion before May 7th, the composition of the Vote UK Prediction will make it a seriously lagging indicator of the likely outcome.
Having said that, even a stopped clock ...........
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2015 12:28:48 GMT
When (or perhaps I should say if!) there is any significant switch in public opinion before May 7th, the composition of the Vote UK Prediction will make it a seriously lagging indicator of the likely outcome. Having said that, even a stopped clock ........... Have no fear - we can alter our predictions at any time and Andy keeps his spreadsheet updated as often as he can. We've already changed our minds about a few seats, Bradford West being a good example - first it was a certain Labour regain, now it's neck and neck after the kerfuffle over the Labour selection (although I'm still predicting Galloway will lose). |
|
