Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 5, 2014 17:22:33 GMT
As noted elsewhere, this well be held early next year. Many details - including the exact composition of the parties that will contest - are uncertain, but we might as well have a thread up.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 5, 2014 23:45:11 GMT
The hilarity begins: Shaul Mofaz (technically still the chairman of Kadima - remember them?) is reported to be joining Labor.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 6, 2014 0:11:20 GMT
The hilarity begins: Shaul Mofaz (technically still the chairman of Kadima - remember them?) is reported to be joining Labor. Remember them? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 6, 2014 0:26:33 GMT
The hilarity begins: Shaul Mofaz (technically still the chairman of Kadima - remember them?) is reported to be joining Labor. Remember them? They are apparently on an upswing and can hope to finish 3rd. Even 2nd if lucky. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 8, 2014 16:38:14 GMT
Labor and Hatnuah are reported to be very close to sorting out a joint list.
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Dec 11, 2014 13:52:40 GMT
Well, as the campaign gets going, it seems Netanyahu isn't in as good a position he'd have assumed he'd be.
There's Herzog rising in popularity, seemingly because of his efforts/success in uniting the centre-left. If he manages to get more then 1 or 2 seats more then Netanyahu, it will be difficult for the President to give the mandate to form a government to Netanyahu, even though the raw Left-Right figures will still favour Netanyahu.
Then there's also Lieberman moving away slightly from Likud.
It looks like splits in Shas and Bayit Yehudi will not happen, although the other ultra-religious party, UTJ, may still lose a seat due to infighting there.
Another interesting question to be answered is what will be with the Arab parties. Will they unite into 1 list, or perhaps 2? The jury is out on which option will help them more, although either should see increased turnout in the Arab sector.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 14, 2014 18:03:52 GMT
Recent polls...
Channel 10: Labor/Hatnuah 22, Likud 20, JH 15, Kulanu 13, YB 11, Yesh Atid 10, UTJ 7, Shas 7, Meretz 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5
Panels/Maariv: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 20, JH 17, YB 10, Kulanu 10, Yesh Atid 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6, Shas 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5
Midgam/Channel 2: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 23, JH 15, Hadash-UAL-Balad 11, Kulanu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, YB 8, Yesh Atid 8, Meretz 5
Smith/Walla: Labor/Hatnuah 21, Likud 18, JH 17, YB 10, Yesh Atid 10, Hadash-UAL-Balad 10, Kulanu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6
Geocartography: Likud 25, Labor/Hatnuah 18, Kulanu 12, JH 11, UTJ 11, Shas 10, Hadash-UAL-Balad 10, YB 9, Yesh Atid 8, Meretz 6
Panels/NRG: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 20, JH 17, Kulanu 10, YB 10, Yesh Atid 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6, Shas 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 14, 2014 19:01:00 GMT
Recent polls... Channel 10: Labor/Hatnuah 22, Likud 20, JH 15, Kulanu 13, YB 11, Yesh Atid 10, UTJ 7, Shas 7, Meretz 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5 Panels/Maariv: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 20, JH 17, YB 10, Kulanu 10, Yesh Atid 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6, Shas 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5 Midgam/Channel 2: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 23, JH 15, Hadash-UAL-Balad 11, Kulanu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, YB 8, Yesh Atid 8, Meretz 5 Smith/Walla: Labor/Hatnuah 21, Likud 18, JH 17, YB 10, Yesh Atid 10, Hadash-UAL-Balad 10, Kulanu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6 Geocartography: Likud 25, Labor/Hatnuah 18, Kulanu 12, JH 11, UTJ 11, Shas 10, Hadash-UAL-Balad 10, YB 9, Yesh Atid 8, Meretz 6 Panels/NRG: Labor/Hatnuah 24, Likud 20, JH 17, Kulanu 10, YB 10, Yesh Atid 9, UTJ 8, Meretz 6, Shas 6, Hadash 5, UAL 5 so what's your reading of the situation at the moment sibboleth? I'm surprised to see Labor in the lead,even with the joint list arrangment. Have the polls been showing this for a while? Is there any reason for the one company putting them behind? |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 14, 2014 20:34:39 GMT
Labor might be in the lead but one those numbers it is hard to see them forming a government.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2014 7:39:59 GMT
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Dec 15, 2014 14:57:02 GMT
Shas almost certainly splitting, with Yishai probably forming his own party (to be called "Maran"), who will perhaps join the Tekuma faction of Jewish Home. The name "Yachad" is circulating as the name for the joint ticket.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 15, 2014 17:11:54 GMT
so what's your reading of the situation at the moment sibboleth? I'm surprised to see Labor in the lead,even with the joint list arrangment. Have the polls been showing this for a while? Is there any reason for the one company putting them behind? Its a very recent poll shift, but the underlying fundamentals (for want of a better way of putting it) have been poor for Netanyahu for a couple of months, so its not that surprising to see a rallying around the opposition party/alliance that seems the most 'credible'. Though Israeli election campaigns are long and all kinds of things could happen between now and March. The polling company with very different figures to the others... er... always shows very different figures to the others. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2014 8:26:10 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 24, 2014 9:37:38 GMT
Well that certainly undermines the case that the status quo can continue indefinitely. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2014 10:07:51 GMT
Well that certainly undermines the case that the status quo can continue indefinitely. It's a Christmas miracle! |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 25, 2014 10:39:21 GMT
Well that certainly undermines the case that the status quo can continue indefinitely. It's a Christmas miracle! Like Sharon before him he has come to realise that the current status quo cannot last forever and so he now seeks a solution that is favourable to Israel while they are in a position of strength. |
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 25, 2014 15:27:39 GMT
It's a Christmas miracle! Like Sharon before him he has come to realise that the current status quo cannot last forever and so he now seeks a solution that is favourable to Israel while they are in a position of strength. A bit like the National party did in South Africa. |
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Dec 25, 2014 15:54:59 GMT
I wouldn't be so hopeful, guys.
This is just the latest manifestation of what a lot of Israeli analysts have been commenting for a couple of months already, that Lieberman is playing a political game. He realises firstly that he has to differentiate himself from Netanyahu, and also wants to open the door to serve in a government not led by Likud, but by Labor.
Basically, this is almost definitely a political ploy, not a real change of opinion.
Another bit of news this week, was that the comptroller of the Likud party has told Netanyahu he cannot run in the primaries next week, due to misappropriating party funds for his personal party leadership campaign. However, don't worry, this will almost certainly not happen!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 25, 2014 17:21:59 GMT
Like Sharon before him he has come to realise that the current status quo cannot last forever and so he now seeks a solution that is favourable to Israel while they are in a position of strength. A bit like the National party did in South Africa. And Paisley in Northern Ireland. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 26, 2014 23:58:33 GMT
Lieberman stands for very little other than MOAR MONIES for Russian Israelis in general and for those Russian Israelis that happen to be YB party members in particular.
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