iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 14, 2019 13:01:04 GMT
Let’s remember the record of constituency polling in this country ...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 21:48:52 GMT
Let’s remember the record of constituency polling in this country ... mostly poor tho most of it Lord Ashcroft.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 21:50:38 GMT
I stand corrected! Must be a bit of a worry but given the national opinion polling and the electoral record we have in Cheltenham I would guess when it comes to a general election a lot of that labour vote will put itself back into our column and make it close again. it might be that lib dem national success is distributed elsewhere
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 14, 2019 22:23:56 GMT
I stand corrected! Must be a bit of a worry but given the national opinion polling and the electoral record we have in Cheltenham I would guess when it comes to a general election a lot of that labour vote will put itself back into our column and make it close again. I’d be surprised if that were true but as you say, it’s a bit worrying for the Lib Dem’s. the Labour vote would come back but if the Conservatives went up to 49 then they will win whatever. It'll depend a bit. Remember that Martin Horwood stood in 2017 and will have had a personal vote, while Chalk has incumbency since, so it's not implausible that there might be a fall in LD VI and rise in Con. It's a worry that the Lab vote share has risen since it was largely that which kept Chalk in last time in the face of an overall swing back to LDs. But it may depend on the campaign machine and I think the Lab share is vulnerable to both a tactical squeeze and disillusion with Corbyn over Brexit - this is one of the places where I think a lot of the Lab vote will be quite young and Remainer-y.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 14, 2019 22:31:43 GMT
I may be misreading it, but doesn't that poll imply that turnout in Cheltenham in 2017 was 91%, when I'm sure it much less than that?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 23:52:48 GMT
I may be misreading it, but doesn't that poll imply that turnout in Cheltenham in 2017 was 91%, when I'm sure it much less than that? no it implies of the 505 people that were polled 91% said they voted. The population of Cheltenham eligible to vote is larger than the 505 polled and the 505 clearly were more likely to say they voted than the average voter in Cheltenham. Not surprising though since people on online panels like YouGov, etc. tend to be more political engaged. Also generally people tend to report higher instances of voter turnout than genuine turnout
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 23:56:13 GMT
I’d be surprised if that were true but as you say, it’s a bit worrying for the Lib Dem’s. the Labour vote would come back but if the Conservatives went up to 49 then they will win whatever. It'll depend a bit. Remember that Martin Horwood stood in 2017 and will have had a personal vote, while Chalk has incumbency since, so it's not implausible that there might be a fall in LD VI and rise in Con. It's a worry that the Lab vote share has risen since it was largely that which kept Chalk in last time in the face of an overall swing back to LDs. But it may depend on the campaign machine and I think the Lab share is vulnerable to both a tactical squeeze and disillusion with Corbyn over Brexit - this is one of the places where I think a lot of the Lab vote will be quite young and Remainer-y. I don't know Cheltenham well is it particularly young.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 15, 2019 8:52:49 GMT
It'll depend a bit. Remember that Martin Horwood stood in 2017 and will have had a personal vote, while Chalk has incumbency since, so it's not implausible that there might be a fall in LD VI and rise in Con. It's a worry that the Lab vote share has risen since it was largely that which kept Chalk in last time in the face of an overall swing back to LDs. But it may depend on the campaign machine and I think the Lab share is vulnerable to both a tactical squeeze and disillusion with Corbyn over Brexit - this is one of the places where I think a lot of the Lab vote will be quite young and Remainer-y. I don't know Cheltenham well is it particularly young. Fairly average, I'd have thought. I know it's a spa town, but the presence of employers such as GCHQ nearby must help keep a youthful element around.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 15, 2019 9:24:26 GMT
I was offered a job in Cheltenham once, and didn't take it. I regret that as it is a very nice place indeed.
Oh well, I've just made a habit of living in Tory-Liberal marginals ever since!
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Post by redtony on Jan 15, 2019 22:06:13 GMT
Alex Chalk used to be my Cllr he was a waste of space then. The ward now has 3 Labour Cllrs.
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Post by greenhert on Jan 15, 2019 22:38:48 GMT
Let’s remember the record of constituency polling in this country ... Constituency polling is inherently unreliable for three very good reasons: one, failing to take into account personal votes of an MP or opponent significantly enough; two, it cannot account for the intervention of Independents or mistakes by a particular candidate which impact the result; three, the sample sizes are always too low for reliable conclusions to be drawn. The electorate of Cheltenham is 78,878 according to the most recent figures available.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 16, 2019 7:56:46 GMT
Alex Chalk used to be my Cllr he was a waste of space then. The ward now has 3 Labour Cllrs. Being a donkey of a councillor is no impediment to future political success, as Barbara Keeley has also proven.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 16, 2019 8:19:59 GMT
Alex Chalk used to be my Cllr he was a waste of space then. The ward now has 3 Labour Cllrs. Being a donkey of a councillor is no impediment to future political success, as Barbara Keeley has also proven. Who? Future political success -are you sure?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 16, 2019 8:36:40 GMT
Being a donkey of a councillor is no impediment to future political success, as Barbara Keeley has also proven. Who? Future political success -are you sure? Everyone has their ceiling
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 16, 2019 9:10:55 GMT
Who? Future political success -are you sure? Everyone has their ceiling I had one donkey of a fellow councillor from my time on Ashford BC who became an MP, the always pretty useless Anne Picking, aka Anne Moffat, who went from Ashford to be MP for East Lothian, an obvious career move which ended 9 years later in deselection. Once a donkey, always a donkey, I'd say. In this case the ceiling was pretty low.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 16, 2019 9:28:55 GMT
Everyone has their ceiling I had one donkey of a fellow councillor from my time on Ashford BC who became an MP, the always pretty useless Anne Picking, aka Anne Moffat, who went from Ashford to be MP for East Lothian, an obvious career move which ended 9 years later in deselection. Once a donkey, always a donkey, I'd say. In this case the ceiling was pretty low. She wasn't at all popular in her local party. To be fair to her she wasn't at all well but was both trying to say she wanted to stand again while negotiating a pension based on her ill health. Not impressive.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Jan 16, 2019 10:36:11 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 16, 2019 10:49:07 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. Its also worth remembering that the initial LibDem surge happened because the Tory candidate was black. The LibDems also took Chippenham in 2010 despute a very good Conservative candidate, Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones. Just happens that he is also known as the Black Farmer
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 16, 2019 11:24:02 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. Surely that is true, at least to some extent, in those other two seats you mentioned? In Bath, the Tories tend to do badly and the Lib Dems well in Twerton for example, which I can't imagine was a Remain stronghold.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2019 15:49:45 GMT
Let’s remember the record of constituency polling in this country ... Constituency polling is inherently unreliable for three very good reasons: one, failing to take into account personal votes of an MP or opponent significantly enough; two, it cannot account for the intervention of Independents or mistakes by a particular candidate which impact the result; three, the sample sizes are always too low for reliable conclusions to be drawn. The electorate of Cheltenham is 78,878 according to the most recent figures available.
constitency polls can over egg personal votes. ICM named Lib Dems in their polls first and got 17 seats wrong not anticipating the swing to the Tories.
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