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Post by manchesterman on Apr 30, 2015 0:31:14 GMT
That is a very interesting poll but I am disappointed it wan't broken down across the 50 seats. Can't extrapolate from that that Labour will win all 50 seats necessarily. I would say with near total confidence that if this poll is accurate Labour won't win all 50 seats in question. They would probably win about 30 of them. I tend to agree with that hunch Richard (maybe nearer 35) but it would have been nice to have the raw data from the seats individually.
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Post by independentukip on Apr 30, 2015 1:30:29 GMT
I would say with near total confidence that if this poll is accurate Labour won't win all 50 seats in question. They would probably win about 30 of them. I tend to agree with that hunch Richard (maybe nearer 35) but it would have been nice to have the raw data from the seats individually. 1,004 people were polled meaning on average only 20 people were polled per seat. I agree it would be nice to have the raw data but only in order to have a good laugh at it.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 30, 2015 1:53:08 GMT
Fair point..I had considered that.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2015 8:50:03 GMT
That is a very interesting poll but I am disappointed it wan't broken down across the 50 seats. Can't extrapolate from that that Labour will win all 50 seats necessarily. I would say with near total confidence that if this poll is accurate Labour won't win all 50 seats in question. They would probably win about 30 of them. The estimate was "around 40" (though I have absolutely no idea what that is based on)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 30, 2015 9:34:49 GMT
Presumably UNS. The swing implied is 3.5% from Conservative to Labour. On UNS number that would be enough to make Cannock Chase neck and neck and that is number 41 on a list of Conservative held seats ranked by vulnerability to Labour
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 30, 2015 11:06:55 GMT
Presumably UNS. The swing implied is 3.5% from Conservative to Labour. On UNS number that would be enough to make Cannock Chase neck and neck and that is number 41 on a list of Conservative held seats ranked by vulnerability to Labour One of the ways that UNS falls down. Cannock Chase may be UNS on national swing, but at the moment it's looking a far more likely gain for labour than some seats that have smaller majorites (e.g. Blackpool North & Cleveleys). Still, labour could win around 35 of the 50 seats. That would offset scottish losses. They would then have to win a number of seats outside this top 50. They should win at least a few seats outside of this top 50.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 30, 2015 13:11:19 GMT
Presumably UNS. The swing implied is 3.5% from Conservative to Labour. On UNS number that would be enough to make Cannock Chase neck and neck and that is number 41 on a list of Conservative held seats ranked by vulnerability to Labour One of the ways that UNS falls down. Cannock Chase may be UNS on national swing, but at the moment it's looking a far more likely gain for labour than some seats that have smaller majorites (e.g. Blackpool North & Cleveleys). Still, labour could win around 35 of the 50 seats. That would offset scottish losses. They would then have to win a number of seats outside this top 50. They should win at least a few seats outside of this top 50. Plus a handful of seats from the LDs as well. It should be noted that Bristol West is not on their top 125 targets and look at the recent poll there.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 30, 2015 14:13:54 GMT
UNS shouldn't be used to predict individual constituencies, but to give an indication of roughly how many seats 'ought' to fall.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 17:25:01 GMT
UNS shouldn't be used to predict individual constituencies, but to give an indication of roughly how many seats 'ought' to fall. But it will help Jeremy Vine's graphic department
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 30, 2015 23:38:31 GMT
UNS shouldn't be used to predict individual constituencies, but to give an indication of roughly how many seats 'ought' to fall. I applaud you for continuing to point out salient facts about polling. It is deeply depressing that even on this site such posts are necessary.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2015 9:09:56 GMT
anyone heard of a poll in Bradford West - one of my running chums picked up something on Twitter about 'Galloway being quiet after the latest poll' but neither she, nor I, can find any evidence of one
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 1, 2015 9:16:00 GMT
anyone heard of a poll in Bradford West - one of my running chums picked up something on Twitter about 'Galloway being quiet after the latest poll' but neither she, nor I, can find any evidence of one I would suggest that any poll in Bradford West would be pretty much worthless.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2015 9:43:10 GMT
Indeed, I suspect it will turn out to have been someones canvassing results. I was just wondering if it was pointing to a shock LD gain
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2015 9:49:44 GMT
anyone heard of a poll in Bradford West - one of my running chums picked up something on Twitter about 'Galloway being quiet after the latest poll' but neither she, nor I, can find any evidence of one I would suggest that any poll in Bradford West would be pretty much worthless. Indeed!! There could already have been a 107% turnout in the Postals alone?
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iain
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Post by iain on May 1, 2015 15:20:28 GMT
Something for everyone there. Ashcroft done.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2015 15:24:02 GMT
There is no Green candidate in Wirral West, of course Battersea is a rather strange seat to pick, and very untypical of London or "marginals". Take that out and the pro-Labour swing is just enough to get us most seats on UNS. Croydon Central will please a certain poster on here (still think we will squeak it, though)
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on May 1, 2015 15:27:55 GMT
Judging from Ashcroft polls (not just this one) Labour seem to be doing better in the big-ish towns and provincial cities than in the suburbs. Might be a trend worth spotting on election night.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 1, 2015 15:42:34 GMT
Battersea is a rather strange seat to pick, and very untypical of London or "marginals". Take that out and the pro-Labour swing is just enough to get us most seats on UNS. It's a seat where the local Labour party have been doing a lot of work and fighting a very active campaign, although it's almost certainly in vain given those numbers. if these figures turn out to be accurate next week, some may wonder if it would have not been more productive to drive human resources elsewhere in London.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 16:26:48 GMT
Why. Hello Jim. 2 behind with a week to go.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 1, 2015 16:33:29 GMT
Probably a good idea to have the 'final batch of the campaign' almost a week before the election. Any differences with the actual results can be ascribed to late swing. In fact, if he is still not putting candidates' names on, I suggest one could add 3-4% on to incumbents in the C seats, and more in general for the LD seats Ashcroft has polled. And then there is, of course, 'late swing' too ...
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