Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2015 10:44:38 GMT
According to Mike Smithson at pb.com, there are some ComRes constituency polls expected today. Hopefully some seats that Ashcroft has polled (to give us a comparison) and some that he hasn't.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2015 11:31:39 GMT
This will be for ITV News so it will be a group of marginal seats, and an overall total given - not a breakdown into individual seats.
Also:
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 29, 2015 13:11:58 GMT
The usual caveats about constituency polling apply of course, but if accurate it would appear that UKIP are doing much better in Essex than the rest of the country. Essex and possibly Kent. I doubt there will be any UKIP seats outside those two this election. They could get two in each though, I reckon. What about Boston?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2015 15:04:58 GMT
Latest round of Ashcroft shows both Farage and Clegg behind.
Sheffield Hallam: Lab 37%, L Dem 36%, C 15%, UKIP 7%, GP 4% South Thanet: C 34%, UKIP 32%, Lab 26%, GP 4%, L Dem 3% Swindon South: C 37%, Lab 36%, UKIP 16%, L Dem 6%, GP 4%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 15:05:22 GMT
Cashcroft: Clegg trails by one in Hallam; Farage by 2 in S. Thanet and S.Swindon Tories lead by one.
Basically all are too close to call.
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Post by mrhell on Apr 29, 2015 15:10:34 GMT
Data tables show that we'll we should be ok due to the older voters turning up (plus we'll probably get some sort of increase with Clegg named on the ballot).
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 29, 2015 15:16:21 GMT
Labour have effectively squeezed the Greens in Hallam, 50% of Tory voters are still open to voting for us. I think we should win.
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2015 16:26:12 GMT
Cashcroft: Clegg trails by one in Hallam; Farage by 2 in S. Thanet and S.Swindon Tories lead by one. Basically all are too close to call. Has there ever been a constituency before that has been as heavily polled in a general election as Hallam? Probably not and my guess is that the polls are calling it wrong. I think Clegg will hang on by at least 5 points.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 29, 2015 16:48:00 GMT
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 29, 2015 17:13:15 GMT
Cashcroft: Clegg trails by one in Hallam; Farage by 2 in S. Thanet and S.Swindon Tories lead by one. Basically all are too close to call. Has there ever been a constituency before that has been as heavily polled in a general election as Hallam? South Thanet. On publicly available polls, they've had 8 -- four Ashcrofts, thee Survations and that leaked ComRes -- and we've had 6 -- four Ashcrofts, one Survation and a leaked ICM.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 29, 2015 17:22:11 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 29, 2015 17:23:36 GMT
Anyone smell a last-minute squeeze?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 17:38:02 GMT
Has there ever been a constituency before that has been as heavily polled in a general election as Hallam? Probably not and my guess is that the polls are calling it wrong. I think Clegg will hang on by at least 5 points. This.
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Post by dizz on Apr 29, 2015 18:12:55 GMT
Anyone smell a last-minute squeeze? These Lib Dem polls have a very big smell about them. That said to see the back of Helen Grant would be a nice event (I joined Labour in 2005 & then....)
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 29, 2015 18:26:06 GMT
Ah, another LibDem pushpoll.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 29, 2015 21:21:25 GMT
Anyone smell a last-minute squeeze? These Lib Dem polls have a very big smell about them. That said to see the back of Helen Grant would be a nice event (I joined Labour in 2005 & then....) It's worth noting that the polls they've released tend to be ones showing them in second place. From which I can deduce that their internal constituency polls haven't shown very many Lib Dem leads.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 29, 2015 21:32:51 GMT
I think that the important thing about the polls is to show us close rather than ahead, to use as a squeeze message.
Anyway, I think we've released 4 (?) Hornsey & Wood Green - Lab 1% over LD West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - LD 5% over Con (IIRC) East Dunbartonshire - LD 1% over SNP Maidstone - Con 5% over LD
So 2 showing us ahead, 2 behind
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 29, 2015 23:58:39 GMT
That is a very interesting poll but I am disappointed it wan't broken down across the 50 seats. Can't extrapolate from that that Labour will win all 50 seats necessarily.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 30, 2015 0:21:05 GMT
That is a very interesting poll but I am disappointed it wan't broken down across the 50 seats. Can't extrapolate from that that Labour will win all 50 seats necessarily. I would say with near total confidence that if this poll is accurate Labour won't win all 50 seats in question. They would probably win about 30 of them.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2015 0:23:37 GMT
I think that the important thing about the polls is to show us close rather than ahead, to use as a squeeze message. Anyway, I think we've released 4 (?) Hornsey & Wood Green - Lab 1% over LD West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - LD 5% over Con (IIRC) East Dunbartonshire - LD 1% over SNP Maidstone - Con 5% over LD So 2 showing us ahead, 2 behind I like Maidstone. Work harder chaps. I do so want to see her losers speech!
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