Elections - 2nd/3rd July 2014

[greatkingrat]

WEDNESDAY 2ND JULY

CRAVEN - Skipton West (Liberal Democrat died)

2012 - LD 379, Ind 228, Lab 218, Con 213
2011 - LD 311, Con 304, Lab 250, Ind 203/80
2008 - LD 592, Con 449
2007 - LD 629, Con 387

Roger BAXANDALL (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Bernard CLARKE (Independent)
Tim HUDSON-BRUNT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
John LAUNDER (Green Party)
Peter MADELEY (Labour Party Candidate)
Edward WALKER (Liberal Democrat)

NORTH YORKSHIRE - Skipton West (Liberal Democrat died)

2013 - LD 572, Ind 471, Con 407, Grn 312, Lab 234
2009 - LD 956, Con 875, Lab 272, BNP 242
2005 - LD 1714, Con 1162, Ind 639

Roger BAXANDALL (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Paul ENGLISH (Liberal Democrat)
Claire NASH (Green Party)
Andy RANKINE (Labour Party Candidate)
Andy SOLLOWAY (Independent)
Paul WHITAKER (The Conservative Party Candidate)

THURSDAY 3RD JULY

COLCHESTER - Wivenhoe Quay (Labour died)

Shaun BOUGHTON (Liberal Democrats)
Tim GLOVER (Green Party)
Peter HILL (Conservative Party Candidate)
Dave OSBORN (Patriotic Socialist Party)
John PITTS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Rosalind SCOTT (The Labour Party Candidate)

2012 - Lab 915, Con 559, Grn 159, LD 122
2011 - Lab 1279, Con 573, Grn 217, LD 172
2008 - Con 678, Lab 518, Grn 513, LD 132
2007 - Lab 648, Con 646, Grn 366, LD 147

NORTHAMPTON - St James (Labour died)

2011 - Lab 419, Con 386, LD 208, Ind 198

Rufia ASHRAF (The Labour Party Candidate)
Jill HOPE (Liberal Democrat Focus Team)
John HOWSAM (United Kingdom Independence Party)
Andrew KILBRIDE (Conservative Party Candidate)

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Braunston & Crick (Conservative resigned)

2013 - Con 1008, UKIP 932, Lab 884, LD 138

Abigail CAMPBELL (The Labour Party Candidate)
Malcolm LONGLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Eric MACANNDRAIS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Brixworth (Conservative resigned)

2013 - Con 1683, UKIP 826, Lab 436, Grn 221, LD 133

Cecile IRVING-SWIFT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Daniel JONES (Liberal Democrat)
Robert MCNALLY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Stephen POINTER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Stephen WHIFFEN (Green Party)

PENDLE - Old Laund Booth (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2011 - LD 367, Con 357, Lab 32
2007 - LD 462, Con 212, Lab 26
2003 - LD 555, Con 138

Jill HARTLEY (Conservative Party)
Kieron HARTLEY (The Blue Party)
Brian NEWMAN (Liberal Democrat)
Michael WADDINGTON (UK Independence Party)

TENDRING - Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley & Tendring (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 759/724, LD 656/367, Grn 407
2007 - Con 634/586, LD 600/518, Lab 135/120
2003 - LD 547/511, Con 438/403, Lab 154

Mark COLE (UK Independence Party)
Alan COLEY (Conservative Party Candidate)
Jo RICHARDSON (The Labour Party Candidate)
Rosemary SMITH (Liberal Democrats)

CHELTENHAM - Charlton Park (deferred - Conservative seat)

2012 - Con 898, LD 794
2010 - Con 1641, LD 1512
2008 - Con 1285, LD 607
2006 - Con 1236, LD 693

Paul BAKER (Liberal Democrat)
John BRIDE (The Labour Party Candidate)
Justin DUNNE (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Penny HALL (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Wayne SPILLER (Green Party)

TOWER HAMLETS - Blackwall & Cubitt Town (deferred - new ward)

previous results (on old boundaries)
2010 - Con 2945/2095/1945, Lab 1929/1858/1681, LD 1250/1097/953, Resp 799/627/577
2006 - Con 1317/1197/1142, Lab 990/903/888, LD 652/463/402, Resp 502/411/273, Ind 362/152/75/58

Kabir AHMED (Tower Hamlets First)
Mohammed AKTARUZZAMAN (Tower Hamlets First)
Elaine BAGSHAW (Liberal Democrats)
Christopher CHAPMAN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Dave CHESTERTON (The Labour Party Candidate)
Stephen CLARKE (Liberal Democrats)
Richard FLOWERS (Liberal Democrats)
Katy GUTTMAN (Green Party)
Geeta KASANGA (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ellen KENYON PEERS (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Faruk KHAN (Tower Hamlets First)
Diana LOCHNER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Mark LOMAS (Green Party)
John PEERS (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Anisur RAHMAN (The Labour Party Candidate)
Mohammed RAHMAN (Independent)
Anthony REGISTE (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Candida RONALD (The Labour Party Candidate)
Paul SHEA (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Chris SMITH (Green Party)
Gloria THIENEL (The Conservative Party Candidate)

[Deleted]

Veritable feast

[markgoodair]

Why is are the craven and North Yorkshire byelections being held on a Wednesday?

[greatkingrat]

It is not that uncommon. The normal reason is that some other event is taking place on the Thursday meaning the usual polling stations or counting venues are unavailable.

[Crimson King]

Tour de France, I presume - stage 1 of the Grand Depart is on Saturday but there will be a lot of disruption from visitors and road closures before that. it wil be stage 2 on Sunday that really effects the area

[David Ashforth]

WEDNESDAY 2ND JULY

	Ward maps	Census maps
CRAVEN - Skipton West	link	link
NORTH YORKSHIRE - Skipton West	link

THURSDAY 3RD JULY

	Ward maps	Census maps
COLCHESTER - Wivenhoe Quay	link	link
NORTHAMPTON - St James	link	link
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Braunston & Crick	link
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Brixworth	link
PENDLE - Old Laund Booth	link	link
TENDRING - Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley & Tendring	link	link
CHELTENHAM - Charlton Park	link	link
TOWER HAMLETS - Blackwall & Cubitt Town	link	link

The Census maps on kevinlarkin's Boundary Assistant website has stopped working so I'll post the links to the rest of the Census maps later.

EDIT: The Boundary Assistant website is working again.

[BossMan]

Andrew Teale's previews:
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/07/by-election-previews-23-july-2014.html

[bungle]

Attachment Deleted

God is taking a clear position in the Skipton by-elections.

[Ben Walker]

I'm of the understanding that the two by-elections tonight are counting in the morn.

[middleenglander]

The Council's twitter posted the following at around 4 pm Wednesday "Don't forget tomorrow's Skipton elections!"

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 2, 2014 22:13:39 GMT middleenglander said:

The Council's twitter posted the following at around 4 pm Wednesday "Don't forget tomorrow's Skipton elections!"

If it's really close, that could be the foundation of a very interesting election petition.

[marksenior]

Craven Skipton West Lab gain from LD

Lab 185 LD 143 Con 131 UKIP 126 Ind 120 Green 67

North Yorks CC Skipton West Ind gain from LD

Ind 391 Con 355 LD 309 UKIP 238 Green 194 Lab 181

Strange how Labour polled more votes in the smaller DC ward than in the larger CC ward

100 % error in the prediction competition for the winner forecasts .

[Davıd Boothroyd]

This is the first time Labour has won a seat on Craven District Council since 1996 - when Labour held Skipton East ward, and gained Cowling ward from the Conservatives (Philip Snowden's birthplace).

[Pete Whitehead]

Craven was previously a Labour free zone - for quite a long time I think (possibly since 2000?)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 3, 2014 9:18:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Craven was previously a Labour free zone - for quite a long time I think (possibly since 2000?)

The last two Labour councillors were elected in 1996, and served until 2000.

Craven never really had a large Labour group; Skipton East used to be the only reliable Labour ward, while the party needed a landslide year and a good candidate to win any of the rural wards. For instance Sutton ward in 1995 was won by nine votes.

[Deleted]

Oh dear. I have predicted the two winners coming in 4th (CC) and 5th (DC)! I think we can safely say my win of last month will not be repeated.

[middleenglander]

Craven, Skipton West - Labour gain from Liberal Democrat

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2008
Labour	185	24.0%	+3.0%	+2.2%	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	143	18.5%	-18.0%	-8.6%	-38.3%
Conservative	131	17.0%	-3.6%	-9.5%	-26.2%
UKIP	126	16.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	120	15.5%	-6.4%	-2.1%	from nowhere
Green	67	8.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
No Description				-7.0%
Total votes	772		74%	67%	74%

Swing, if meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Labour 10½% since 2012 and 5½% since 2011
- and Liberal Democrat to Conservative 7¼% since 2012 a6% since 2008 but ½% Conservative to Liberal Democrat since 2011

North Yorkshire, Skipton West - Independent gain from Liberal Democrat

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2013	since 2009	since 2005
Independent	391	23.4%	-0.2%	from nowhere	+5.3%
Conservative	355	21.3%	+0.9%	-16.0%	-11.8%
Liberal Democrat	309	18.5%	-10.1%	-22.2%	-30.2%
UKIP	238	14.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	194	11.6%	-4.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	181	10.9%	-0.9%	-0.7%	from nowhere
BNP				-10.3%
Total votes	1,668		84%	71%	47%

Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative 5½% since 2013, 3% since 2009 and 9% since 2005

Note the winning Labour candidate in the District ward, who came 3rd not only in 2012 close behind the runner-up but also in 2011, polled more votes than the Labour candidate for the County division which comprises both the West and the North wards.  This suggests a significant personal vote.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

To answer the question you're all asking: Yes, Tower Hamlets is counting overnight.

So expect the result sometime on Saturday.

[middleenglander]

Jul 3, 2014 21:13:36 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

To answer the question you're all asking: Yes, Tower Hamlets is counting overnight.

So expect the result sometime on Saturday.

Which week?

[timmullen1]

Jul 3, 2014 12:35:13 GMT middleenglander said:

bNote the winning Labour candidate in the District ward, who came 3rd not only in 2012 close behind the runner-up but also in 2011, polled more votes than the Labour candidate for the County division which comprises both the West and the North wards.  This suggests a significant personal vote.

Or the lack of a personal vote for the County candidate given his history as a Liberal Democrat in Lancashire (still considered a foreign land by some in Yorkshire) as recently as 2010.