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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 12, 2015 16:06:23 GMT
First Ashcroft national poll of the new year gives the Tories a six point lead:
CON 34% LAB 28% UKIP 16% GRN 8% LDEM 8%
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Post by timokane on Jan 12, 2015 18:10:44 GMT
First Ashcroft national poll of the new year gives the Tories a six point lead: CON 34% LAB 28% UKIP 16% GRN 8% LDEM 8% Rogue poll simple as.
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Post by thirdchill on Jan 12, 2015 18:26:50 GMT
Now the same day Populus showed a five point lead for Labour Lord Ashcroft shows a six point lead for the Conservatives (and lets not forget Suday's YouGov showing them neck and neck) Con 34% (+4) Lab 28% (-3) UKIP 16% (-3) L Dem 8% (nc) Green 8% (+3) If neck and neck is the average polling, then both of the polls mentioned are either within or almost within the margin of error.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 19:51:47 GMT
First Ashcroft national poll of the new year gives the Tories a six point lead: CON 34% LAB 28% UKIP 16% GRN 8% LDEM 8% Um ... Okay
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 19:52:29 GMT
First Ashcroft national poll of the new year gives the Tories a six point lead: CON 34% LAB 28% UKIP 16% GRN 8% LDEM 8% Rogue poll simple as. Quite. We got a 7 point labour lead just before xmas. Both are clear rogues.
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 12, 2015 20:01:57 GMT
Rather than rogues, just at the margins of probability perhaps.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 12, 2015 22:11:31 GMT
Rather than rogues, just at the margins of probability perhaps. Ashcroft polls seem to have margins of error twice that quoted by other pollsters.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2015 23:48:52 GMT
It seems to fit the pattern of the outcome being totally up in the air.
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 13, 2015 4:31:19 GMT
I'm struck, as in other recent polls, by the disparity in likelihood of voting between Conservative identifiers and Labour identifiers. I'm really quite surprised how poorly the LibDems measure on this score.
In this National Ashcroft poll, 69% of respondents answered 8-10 where 1 was certain not to vote and 10 was certain to vote. [9% were self-declared definite non-voters.] But, of those who expressed a preference for a particular party, the percentages responding 8-10 were Con 88%; Lab 75%; LD 71%; UKIP 78%. [dont knows/refused/swing voters came in at 65%]
Differential turnout is hardly a new phenomenon. But Labour's attempts to maximise their vote by concentrating so heavily on the NHS may not be the appropriate tactic to close the differential turnout gap. A quite astonishing one-third of those in a previous Ashcroft poll who said that they planned to vote Labour nevertheless worried that Labour had not learned from the mistakes it made in office, and that a future Labour Government would tax and spend more than the country could afford.
Perhaps Labour needs to change the focus of its message to reassure its potential supporters about its economic competence, rather than repetitively pushing their increasingly stale NHS scare stories?
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 13, 2015 4:40:12 GMT
First Ashcroft national poll of the new year gives the Tories a six point lead: CON 34% LAB 28% UKIP 16% GRN 8% LDEM 8% Rogue poll simple as. Before we dismiss this as a rogue poll, or as one at the limits of the margin of error, let's see (a) if other polling organisations show a move in this direction and (b) what the next National Ashcroft poll shows. Approximately one in twenty sets of polling numbers can be expected to fall outside the margin of error, so I personally think that such inherent variability is the most likely explanation for this poll's results. That will only be confirmed, however, once another week's worth of polling data is published.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2015 11:26:35 GMT
The alternative reading of the above data is that the Tories have already "maxed out" their vote to a significantly greater extent than other parties - this would, of course, be consistent with their basically having been stuck in the low 30s for nearly 3 years now.
Oh, and its not just the headline figures that are making people suspect a "rogue" here - some of the internals look distinctly odd, too.....
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Post by Devonian on Jan 19, 2015 16:00:59 GMT
Great poll for the Greens. Tory poll number looking more plausible than last week.
Con 29% (-5) Lab 28% (nc) UKIP 15% (-1) Green 11% (+3) L Dem 9% (+1)
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Post by Devonian on Jan 19, 2015 16:06:24 GMT
Lord Ashcroft report that this poll has his lowest ever Con+Lab combined score and that this is his first poll showing both Conservative and Labour below 30%
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Post by Devonian on Jan 19, 2015 16:18:26 GMT
Apparently this is not only the first Lord Ashcroft poll to show both Tories and Labour below 30%, it is the first poll from any polling company since 1981 showing both below 30%. Is that correct?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 16:27:12 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11%
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 19, 2015 16:56:54 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11% May I propose a hypothesis that the Greens are on 11% IF the poll was this week, was held on Facebook, and that pre-registration was not required? And on 3% IF the poll isn't until May, involves visiting a polling station, and is only available to those who have completed the registration process?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 17:08:04 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11% May I propose a hypothesis that the Greens are on 11% IF the poll was this week, was held on Facebook, and that pre-registration was not required? And on 3% IF the poll isn't until May, involves visiting a polling station, and is only available to those who have completed the registration process? Heh
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 19:58:52 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11% Their average since the New Year is 6.7% (it was 5.9% for December).
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Post by keithn on Jan 19, 2015 21:15:18 GMT
Great poll for the Greens. Tory poll number looking more plausible than last week. Con 29% (-5) Lab 28% (nc) UKIP 15% (-1) Green 11% (+3)y L Dem 9% (+1) Even on 57% this result would give the ConLabs about 90% of the seats so they won't lose too much sleep. We even have the possibility of UKIP plus Greens getting a quarter of the votes between them without a single seat (or more likely four or five together). Gotta love our electoral system.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 21:33:26 GMT
Great poll for the Greens. Tory poll number looking more plausible than last week. Con 29% (-5) Lab 28% (nc) UKIP 15% (-1) Green 11% (+3)y L Dem 9% (+1) Even on 57% this result would give the ConLabs about 90% of the seats so they won't lose too much sleep. We even have the possibility of UKIP plus Greens getting a quarter of the votes between them without a single seat (or more likely four or five together). Gotta love our electoral system. You are making a pretty convincing argument for it...
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