|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 7, 2014 13:12:26 GMT
Do you see this as the start of the 'adjustment' to GE 15 reality as people think their way to what they will do after the EU Elections? If so it suggests Labour may be weaker in the South than might be expected and the LD collapse their major form of sustenance? I feel we should be making a strong push for the older age group of 'Old Labour' many of whose core ethics we still share. They are not Green or multi-cultural or social modernists. If we can capture a major section of that demographic it will aid us and the Conservatives, and I would be very happy with that outturn. I want to see us do well and although a short-term Labour government under Ed would be politically useful to our further development, I suppose I ought to be more concerned with ensuring that win is narrow or impossible. I am torn between my loathing of the economic damage Labour always rends and my loathing of Cameroon social modernizing. There will probably be even more social modernizing with labour. I suggest you are cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote labour. I also have deep lying issues with the Cameroons (the economic policy) but surely they are better than labour? That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2014 13:55:16 GMT
There will probably be even more social modernizing with labour. I suggest you are cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote labour. I also have deep lying issues with the Cameroons (the economic policy) but surely they are better than labour? That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism. Are UKIP actually interested in winning the war?
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Feb 7, 2014 14:31:30 GMT
Conwy, Betws yn Rhos - Independent gain from No Description Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | Independent Lloyd | 347 | 46.0% | from nowhere | Plaid Cymru | 197 | 26.1% | -1.8% | Independent Evans | 127 | 16.8% | from nowhere | Conservative * | 83 | 11.0% | -10.3% | No Description |
|
| -43.4% | Independent |
|
| -5.1% | Independent |
|
| -2.3% | Total votes | 754 |
| -30 |
* Conservative candidate stood as an Independent in 2012 2008 and 2004 saw an Independent returned unopposed Sheffield, Arbourthorne - Labour hold Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | Labour | 1,398 | 52.2% | -10.1% | -6.7% | +5.0% | +10.8% | UKIP | 482 | 18.0% | +3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 213 | 8.0% | -0.1% | -2.4% | -4.0% | -10.8% | TUSAC | 204 | 7.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Lib Dem | 161 | 6.0% | -1.4% | -5.3% | -21.4% | -22.2% | Green | 143 | 5.3% | -2.1% | -14.0% | +1.8% | -6.1% | English Democrat | 75 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | BNP |
|
|
|
| -9.9% |
| Total votes | 2,676 |
| -1,021 | -2,310 | -4,209 | -1,196 |
Swing Labour to UKIP 6.7% since 2012 otherwise not particularly meaningful Tendring, Peter Bruff - Conservative hold Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | Conservative | 271 | 38.1% | -3.2% | -4.2% | +5.9% | +5.4% | Labour | 180 | 25.3% | +1.5% | +2.1% | +11.2% | +11.0% | UKIP | 153 | 21.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Lib Dem | 108 | 15.2% | -19.9% | -19.3% | -21.3% | -19.6% | Independent |
|
|
|
| -17.2% | -18.2% | Total votes | 712 |
| -370 | -322 | -385 | -326 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 2.3% / 3.1% since 2011 and ~ 2¾% since 2007 Tendring, St Johns - Conservative hold Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average | Conservative | 423 | 44.4% | +2.5% | +1.7% | +3.2% | +4.3% | Labour | 272 | 28.6% | -2.9% | -2.2% | +9.5% | +8.3% | UKIP | 208 | 21.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Row 4 column 6 | Row 4 column 7 | No Description | 49 | 5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Row 5 column 6 | Row 5 column 7 | Lib Dem |
|
| -18.8% | -18.1% | -39.7% | -39.6% | Green |
|
| -7.8% | -8.3% |
|
| Total votes | 952 |
| -556 | -460 | -402 | -322 |
Swing Labour to Conservative 2.7% / 2.0% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 3.1% / 2.0% since 2007
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 7, 2014 16:36:54 GMT
That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism. Are UKIP actually interested in winning the war? As I see it we are the only party engaged in it at all. The other big-3 are all socialist to an extent and in truth I expect UKIP to go the same way for the same centrist practical politics reasons. In fact I think there is a bigger market for the real right of centre than many politicians suspect. The 'Centre Ground' is over-provided for and over-fought-over. We are in the war against mass immigration and against the EU, largely alone.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2014 16:47:29 GMT
UKIP are already more socialist than the tories. As recently as 2010 that wasn't the case.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,642
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 7, 2014 17:57:08 GMT
EDITED: LAB 1,398 52.2% -10.1% GRN 143 5.3% -2.1% TUSC 204 7.6% 7.6% LD 161 6.0% -1.4% UKIP 482 18.0% 3.3% CON 213 8.0% -0.1% ED 75 2.8% 2.8% My STV modelling show that UKIP have gained a councillor, and now have a group of two. Labour's majority trimmed to 30.
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 7, 2014 22:24:29 GMT
UKIP are already more socialist than the tories. As recently as 2010 that wasn't the case. They are less consistent, have less well developed policy positions, and through being populists, are far harder to evaluate or to tie down in that manner. In ethos and gut feeling they are not really socialist at all....as seen from my perspective and I think from the perspective of the new possible voter.
|
|