By-Election: Tuesday 7th January

[linders]

SWINTON SOUTH (Salford City Council)

BLOWER Neil (Labour Party Candidate)
BROOMHEAD Anne (The Conservative Party Candidate)
CULLEN Steve (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
O'NEILL Joe (Green Party)
WAKEFIELD Robert (UK Independence Party)
WHITELEGG Paul A (English Democrats - "Putting England First!")

2012: Lab 1072 / Green 394 / Con 376 / BNP 172 / LD 141 / EngDem 112 / CAP 86
2011: Lab 1356 / Con 553 / Green 481 / LD 277 / UKIP 194
2010: Lab 1671 / LD 1358 / Con 1055 / Ind 837
2008: LD 1150 / Lab 642 / Con 527 / Ind 347
2007: LD 1114 / Lab 750 / Con 372 / Ind 234 / EngDem 210
2006: LD 965 / Lab 842 / Con 584
2005 (by-election 10/03/05): Lab 641 / LD 579 / Con 543 / Green 76
2004 (all-out): Lab 1158, 1102, 1016 / LD 1006, 992 / Con 954, 597

Interestingly Joe O'Neill, the Green Party candidate this time, appears no few than six times under three different banners in the results history for this ward - as a losing Liberal Democrat candidate in 2004 and the 2005 by-election, as the successful Liberal Democrat candidate in 2006, attempting to defend his seats as a independent in 2010, and as the Green Party candidate in 2011 and 2012.

[Merseymike]

I'm sure this used to be a Tory ward in an average year until the mid-2000's, with Labour taking the seats in 2004

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dec 15, 2013 22:44:13 GMT Merseymike said:

I'm sure this used to be a Tory ward in an average year until the mid-2000's, with Labour taking the seats in 2004

Can give you some stats for the previous Swinton South ward:

1982: C 41.8, Lab 29.5, L 28.7
1983: Conservatives won.
1984: Lab 43.2, C 39.5, L 17.3
1986: Lab 48.3, C 35.5, L 16.2.
1987: Conservatives won.
1988: Labour won.
1990: Lab 55.8, C 33.3, GP 10.9.
1991: Lab 44.3, C 41.9, L Dem 10.3, GP 3.4
1992: C 49.7, Lab 40.3, L Dem 8.0, GP 2.0
1994: Lab 64.8, C 35.2.
1995: Lab 63.8, C 25.8, L Dem 10.4.
1996: Lab 58.9, C 31.5, L Dem 9.5.
1998: Lab 50.8, C 31.9, L Dem 17.3.
1999: Lab 52.1, C 32.0, L Dem 15.9.
2000: C 42.7, Lab 36.9, L Dem 20.4.
2002: Lab 45.3, C 34.0, L Dem 20.7.

[Merseymike]

Tory in a good year then, but certainly competitive - which isn't the case now

[ColinJ]

The 1987 and 1988 figures:

1987: C 45.7, Lab 35.8, L 18.5.
1988: Lab 48.4, C 43.8, LDem 7.8.

[andrewteale]

This is the ward that includes Salford Civic Centre. Local government cuts aren't likely to go down well here.

[Dave Morgan]

Dec 15, 2013 23:28:55 GMT Merseymike said:

Tory in a good year then, but certainly competitive - which isn't the case now

It's a very different ward than Pre-2004. It lost large parts to help create the new Worsley ward, and a lesser extent top up Claremont, whilst gaining parts of the town centre from Swinton North, and I think, Pendlebury.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2013 21:18:24 GMT @stuart said:

Dec 16, 2013 9:36:36 GMT Dave Morgan said:

It's a very different ward than Pre-2004. It lost large parts to help create the new Worsley ward, and a lesser extent top up Claremont, whilst gaining parts of the town centre from Swinton North, and I think, Pendlebury.

Pendlebury, pretty church there. There is a cpl of my Northern Irish course mates living in pendlebury I'll have to check the boundaries, they are Tories by the way!

Map of Pendlebury

[The Bishop]

Shouldn't this thread be merged with the 9th Jan one ideally?

[Deleted]

Ward Map: Swinton South

[Deleted]

Result due here - www.salford.gov.uk/results.htm

Or here perhaps - twitter.com/cllrilindley

[Deleted]

[middleenglander]

Looks like a little under 1,500 votes as electorate is given as 9,058 - up 626 since May 2012.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SALFORD Swinton South

BLOWER Neil (Labour Party Candidate) 661 (45.1%)
BROOMHEAD Anne (The Conservative Party Candidate) 298 (20.3%)
WAKEFIELD Robert (UK Independence Party) 215 (14.7%)
O'NEILL Joe (Green Party) 196 (13.4%)
WHITELEGG Paul A (English Democrats - "Putting England First!") 54 (3.7%)
CULLEN Steve (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 43 (2.9%)

Source:

[andrewteale]

SWINTON SOUTH, Salford city council; caused by the death of Labour councillor Norbert Potter at the age of 73. First elected in 2003 for Walkden South ward, he had continuous service on the council since winning a 2005 by-election in Barton ward, moving to Swinton South in 2011. Also a director of Salford Citizens Advice Bureau, Potter had served in various council cabinet positions, including Planning and Town Twinning for three years.



In a previous life for your columnist he temped at Salford City Council for several months, and his mother has worked for the City Council for many years. Of course, Salford City Council is not based on Salford itself but in the comparatively calmer town of Swinton, the next town out on the roads to Chorley and Liverpool. A classic Lancashire industrial town, with cotton, bricks and coalmining being the main Victorian industries here, Swinton's economy is now based on the administration and on commuting to Manchester. Modern famous sons of the town include the Master of the Queen's Music, Sir Peter Maxwell Davies, and the footballer Ryan Giggs.

Swinton South was a Labour/Tory fight before 2004 (the Tories winning in 1983, '87, '92 and 2000), but then much of the best Tory areas moved to Worsley and Boothstown ward in boundary changes. In June 2004, the first election on the current ward boundaries, this was a Labour ward but the Lib Dems very close behind; the three Labour majorities were 152, 96 and 10 votes. Labour did well to hold a by-election in March 2005, a few weeks before the general election of that year, but in the 2005-10 parliament the Lib Dems finally broke through and gained all three Labour seats over the period 2006-2008. Labour regained the ward in 2010 partly thanks to a split in the Lib Dem vote, the outgoing councillor Joe O'Neill standing for re-election as an independent and polling 17% in fourth place; in the two elections since then O'Neill has stood as a Green Party candidate and again polled 17% each time. The Lib Dem vote in Salford faded away with the establishment of the Coalition (they have no candidate in the by-election), allowing Labour to win this ward easily in 2011 and 2012 with a very divided opposition; O'Neill was runner-up in 2012, just ahead of the Tories.

Defending for Labour is Neil Blower, a former soldier who has fought in Kosovo and Iraq and is writer-in-residence at the local website Salford Online. Joe O'Neill stands again for the Green Party, while former teacher Anne Broomhead is the Conservative candidate. Also on the ballot paper are Paul Whitelegg for the English Democrats, Steve Cullen for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition and UKIP's Robert Wakefield.

Parliamentary constituency: Salford and Eccles
ONS Travel to Work Area: Manchester
Postcode district: M27

Neil Blower (Lab)
Anne Broomhead (C)
Steve Cullen (TUSC)
Joe O'Neill (Grn)
Robert Wakefield (UKIP)
Paul Whitelegg (EDP)

May 2012 result Lab 1072 Grn 394 C 376 BNP 172 LD 141 EDP 112 Community Action 86
May 2011 result Lab 1356 C 553 Grn 481 LD 277 UKIP 194
May 2010 result Lab 1671 LD 1358 C 1055 Ind 837
May 2008 result LD 1150 Lab 642 C 527 Ind 347
May 2007 result LD 1114 Lab 750 C 372 Ind 234 EDP 210
May 2006 result LD 965 Lab 842 C 584
March 2005 by-election Lab 643 LD 579 C 543 Grn 76
June 2004 result Lab 1158/1102/1016 LD 1006/992 C 954/597

[middleenglander]

Salford, Swinton South - Labour hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	661	45.1%	-0.5%	-2.3%	+11.1%	+21.0%
Conservative	298	20.3%	+4.3%	+1.0%	-1.1%	+0.5%
UKIP	215	14.7%	from nowhere	+7.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	196	13.4%	-3.4%	-3.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
English Democrats	54	3.7%	-1.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSAC	43	2.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dems			-6.0%	-9.7%	-27.6%	-43.1%
BNP			-7.3%
Community Action			-3.7%
Independent					-17.0%	-13.0%
Total votes	1,467		-886	-1,394	-3,454	-1,199

Swing Labour to Conservative 2.4% since 2012 and 1.6% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 6.1% since 2010 and 10% since 2008