Post by irish observer on Dec 31, 2013 20:47:36 GMT
The Boundary Commission made final recommendations here in mid December. This is another solidly Unionist Council. It is a merger of the majority of Lisburn City Council of 30 seats across 5 DEAs and Castlereagh Borough Council of 23 seats across 4 DEAs. Both combine to form this new Council of 40 seats across 7 Electoral Areas. This is also territory in which the UUP used be in the ascendancy but in which the DUP now dominate. As will be made clear on the discussion on Belfast some wards from Lisburn and Castlereagh and proposed to join an enlarged Belfast.
1. Killultagh (5): This DEA is essentially 3/5 of the old Killultagh DEA, the heavily Nationalist Collin Glen from Dunmurry Cross and Balymacross from the old Lisburn Town North, now called White Mountain. The DUP have 2 safe quotas and there is a comfortable quota for the UUP. On the Nationalist side SF have over a quota while the SDLP have 0.64 quota and will win the last seat over the Alliance due to SF transfers. Prediction: 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP.
2. Lisburn South (6): This DEA contains the old Knockmore ward of Killultagh and several urban Lisburn wards. It is solidly Unionist. The DUP can expect to receive 4 quotas compared to 1 for the UUP. Alliance will take the last seat. Nationalists still do not have a quota here yet but the population is growing. Prediction: 4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 APNI.
3. Lisburn North (6): The Derryvaghy and Seymour Hill wards of the old Dunmurry Cross are combined with 5 urban Lisburn wards in this new DEA. There are 2 guaranteed DUP quotas and 1 for the UUP. This analysis gives 2 Nationalist comfortable quotas here, which will go to SF. The final seat will go to Alliance. Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 UUP, 1 APNI.
4. Downshire West (5): This DEA is made up of the remainder of Killultagh, Moira and Maghaberry, Hillsborough and Maze from the old Downshire DEA and Blaris from the old Lisburn Town South. This is a solidly Unionist area. The DUP can expect to get 3 quotas to the UUP's 1. Alliance will get the final seat. Nationalists have approximately 0.82 of a quota combined but I still favour Alliance. Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 APNI.
5. Downshire East (5): This is a solidly Unionist DEA, made up as it of most of the old Downshire DEA. This is a solidly Unionist area. The DUP can expect to get 3 quotas to the UUP's 1. Alliance will get the final seat. Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 APNI, 1 UUP.
6. Castlereagh South (7): This DEA is essentially 4/5 of the old Castlereagh South, except the vast majority of Moneyreagh and 2/5 of Castlereagh West, focused on Newtownbreda and Beechill. On the Nationalist side there are 2 quotas due to a growing population and they will go to the SDLP. The DUP have comfortable 2 quotas and the UUP have a safe quota. Alliance have 1 safe quota and will secure the final seat over the DUP through being more transfer friendly with Green transfers and the Nationalist surplus. Prediction:2 DUP, 2 SDLP, 2 APNI, 1 UUP.
7. Castlereagh East (6): This final DEA combines the majority of Moneyreagh with the old Castlereagh East DEA and 1/3 of the old Castlereagh Central, focused on Lower Braniel and Craigavad. There are 3 comfortable DUP quotas and 2 for the Alliance Party. The last seat is between the UUP who have 0.57 quota and the DUP who have 3.5 quotas. Given the state of the UUP in the recent years I give the seat to the DUP. Prediction: 4 DUP, 2 APNI.
As can be seen I predict that the DUP will get 50% of the seats here. They have a good shot at an overall majority. The Alliance seats are very safe from what I can see and it will take a while for more Nationalist gains.
Good analysis. I think you've added the whole Derryvaghy ward into Lisburn North though. The Lagmore and Mt Eagles estates are going to Belfast I think. Nationalists will do well to get a quota here.
Thanks gamblingguru, and I appreciate the specific local analysis re Lisburn. The map appeared to indicate that the vast majority of Derryvaghy was in Lisburn North as well as Seymour Hill and I included both.
Dundonald ends up in the same council as Lisburn? Looks a good estimate of seats. I think Collin Glen is Belfast rather than Killultagh though. Ballymacoss is pretty mixed though and would go with your seat prediction.
Think the prediction here for nationalists is extremely optimistic on the Lisburn side. Lisburn has always had a large disparity between Catholic population and Nationalist vote. There will be one nationalist seat in Lisburn North, more than likely SDLP. The SF vote has always been concentrated in the Colin area and there is only a skirmish of it left (most of it the mixed rural area close to the landfill site). SF have two potentials here - Castlereagh South and Killutagh. I'm finding it very difficult to see where a nationalist seat will come from in Downshire West too.
Castlereagh South however is a much more promising prospect for Nationalists. This is an amalgamation of the old Castlereagh South and Castlereagh West DEA's. However much of the Unionist vote that was here has went with Moneyreagh into Castlereagh East, and in Belvoir which has gone into Belfast. The area left behind is really Carryduff and the raft of development along the Saintfield road to Belfast. It's definatley not impossible for nationalists to take a third seat here of the boundary and demographic change - If not this election, certainly next. SF seem to be extremely proactive here: www.facebook.com/pages/Elect-Nuala-Toman-Castlereagh-South/743372552341506?fref=ts
A nationalist seat in Killultagh, not enough votes for 2, but enough to provide transfers for an Alliance seat. 2 nationalists in Castlereagh South again not enough for 3. One seat in Lisburn N. Its not impossible all 4 seats go to the SDLP but I personally favour SF in Killultagh, the Glenavy vote for them making the difference.
5th May 2011 – DUP 11, UUP 3, Alliance Party 6, SDLP 2, Green Party 1
The current mayor and deputy mayor are DUP.
David McGimpsey (UUP) was appointed in Castlereagh Central DEA, in place of Michael Stewart Copeland. Sharon Skillen (DUP) was appointed in Castlereagh East DEA, in place of Gareth Andrew James Robinson. Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance Party) was appointed in Castlereagh East DEA, in place of Judith Elaine Cochrane. Victoria Nelson (DUP) was appointed in Castlereagh South DEA, in place of James Spratt.
Eight councilors are not seeking re-election (including all 5 in Castlereagh West) Castlereagh Central – Vivienne Clare McCoy (DUP) Castlereagh East – James White (DUP) Castlereagh South – John Beattie (DUP) Castlereagh West – Anne-Marie Beattie (DUP) Castlereagh West – Myreve Beatrice Chambers (DUP) Castlereagh West – Sara Gladys Duncan (Alliance Party) Castlereagh West – Cecil Hall (UUP) Castlereagh West – Peter Joseph O’Reilly (SDLP)
Part of the Castlereagh Central area has been transferred to Belfast. 5 of the 6 Castlereagh Central councillors are standing in the Lisnasharragh and Ormiston DEAs of Belfast.
The remaining 10 councillors are standing in Castlereagh East and Castlereagh South DEAs.
Lisburn Borough Council comprises 30 members.
5th May 2011 – DUP 14, UUP 5, Sinn Féin 5, SDLP 3, Alliance Party 3 6th May 2014 - DUP 15, UUP 4, Sinn Féin 4, SDLP 2, Alliance Party 3, Independent 2
The current mayor and deputy mayor are DUP.
Angela Nelson (Sinn Féin) (Dunmurry Cross) is now shown on the Lisburn Borough Council website as Independent. John Drake (SDLP) (Lisburn Town North) is now shown on the Lisburn Borough Council website as Independent Alan Carlisle (UUP) (Lisburn Town South) is now shown on the Lisburn Borough Council website as DUP.
Luke Christopher Poots (DUP) was appointed in Downshire DEA, in place of Paul Stewart. Jonathan Scott Carson (DUP) was appointed in Lisburn Town North DEA, in place of Paul Givan. Sarah Gladys Yvonne Craig (DUP) was appointed in Lisburn Town North DEA, in place of Jonathan Craig. On 24 February 2014, William Charles Alexander Redpath (UUP) was appointed in Lisburn Town North DEA, in place of Ronnie Crawford.
Five councilors are not seeking re-election Downshire – Jennifer Coulter (Alliance Party) Dunmurry Cross – Angela Nelson (Independent) Lisburn Town North – Brian Dornan (Alliance Party) Lisburn Town North – John Drake (Independent) Lisburn Town North – William Leathern (DUP)
Part of the Dunmurry Cross area has been transferred to Belfast. 5 of the 7 Dunmurry Cross councillors are standing in the Black Mountain and Collin DEAs of Belfast.
The remaining 20 councillors are standing in Downshire East, Downshire West, Killultagh, Lisburn North and Lisburn South DEAs.
Castlereagh East DEA – 5 Castlereagh councillors are competing for the 6 seats :-
David Drysdale (DUP) – Castlereagh East Martin Gregg (Green Party) – Castlereagh East Tommy Jeffers (DUP) – Castlereagh East Tim Morrow (Alliance Party) – Castlereagh East Sharon Skillen (DUP) - Castlereagh East
Castlereagh South DEA – 5 Castlereagh councillors are competing for the 7 seats :-
Brian Hanvey (SDLP) – Castlereagh South Michael Henderson (UUP) – Castlereagh South Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance Party) – Castlereagh East Vikki Nelson (DUP) – Castlereagh South Geraldine Rice (Alliance Party) – Castlereagh South
Downshire East DEA – 4 Lisburn councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
James Baird (UUP) – Downshire Uel Mackin (DUP) – Downshire Luke Poots (DUP) – Downshire Roy Young (DUP) – Lisburn Town South
Downshire West DEA – 4 Lisburn councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Jim Dillon (UUP) – Killultagh Allan Ewart (DUP) – Downshire John Palmer (DUP) – Killultagh Alexander Redpath (UUP) – Lisburn Town North
Killultagh DEA – 3 Lisburn councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Thomas Beckett (DUP) – Killultagh Patrick Catney (SDLP) – Killultagh James Tinsley (DUP) – Killultagh
Lisburn North DEA – 6 Lisburn councillors are competing for the 6 seats :-
Brian Bloomfield (UUP) – Lisburn Town North Scott Carson (DUP) – Lisburn Town North Yvonne Craig (DUP) – Lisburn Town North Stephen Martin (Alliance Party) – Lisburn Town South Jenny Palmer (DUP) – Lisburn Town South Margaret Tolerton (DUP) – Dunmurry Cross
Lisburn South DEA – 3 Lisburn councillors are competing for the 6 seats :-
Alan Carlisle (DUP) – Lisburn Town South Andrew Ewing (DUP) – Lisburn Town South Paul Porter (DUP) – Lisburn Town South