I'll bow to your knowledge if you have any about Sinn Fein gaining in Park. I have nothing to disagree with that other than it's been the trend. I would back up the SDLP will gain some ground in Strabane though, partly because their vote was so low that it was virtually down to blood relatives and paid staffers votes and partly because Strabane has been acknowledged as an area that has managed to turn around it's organisation. Time will tell...
Can't argue with the other points; Waterside will be very close by the looks of it. Made more interesting by two UKIP candidates wanting to stop all eastern european immigration and a Lithuanian Alliance candidate with lots of Polish subscribers. Even her transfers may settle the final seat as the Alliance polled around 2.5% here last time and perhaps will garner the significant number of minority voters now settled on the waterside.
As for the d'Hondt point you're probably right, and I personally would be bothered if one the mayors didn't come from the unionist tradition. Derry City Council probably has the best record on this type of sharing though. I guess my wider point was, I was lead to believe that maybe one of the aspects of the new super councils would be an enshrined sharing out of roles and posts rather than relying on the good grace of the majority community (maybe ultimately this is better). I think Craigavon and Castlereagh are among the worst offenders. At Castlereagh the votes were barely counted before the UUP announced they were jumping into bed with the DUP to protect the unionist majority. Craigavon is worse as it has only a small unionist majority but constantly refuses to give SF a look in at the mayor's job. I would hate to see some nationalist bloc voting develop but then the relationship between the SDLP and SF seems pretty sour at the moment anyway.
What odds would you give serial dissident republican candidate Gary Donnelly on getting a seat? He wasn't so far off last time but I'm not sure if the level of disaffection with SF is enough to push him over the line yet.
Post by LondonDerry Air on May 8, 2014 9:01:39 GMT
In terms of Park Charlie, I have no particular knowledge of the area, I'm just going of the fact that the SF candidate seems to a local young man, and SF where only a few votes off getting their previous candidate, Mary Nelis's daughter, elected. Which prior to the count, nobody seen coming. As a waterside Unionist, i'd be dissapointed in my community if the two UKIP candidates got more than a handful of votes. Time will tell. Gary Donnelly could sneak in, but with a larger DEA than last time he might struggle, I can't see the logic in the 32CSM essentially standing two 'independent' candidates, maybe the are hoping the second candidate will get the young vote out and those transfers will take Donnelly over the line. But I doubt their is enough dissatisfaction on the ground with SF to get Donnelly elected, yet...
Yep, that's my assessment too. I think the new Moor ward takes in the rural area headed out towards the border which is not exactly dissident (or even SF) territory. I wasn't aware that the second independent was a colleague of Donnelly so thanks for that tit-bit.
I actually agree with the point about UKIP. I don't see them gaining any foothold in the Waterside. I'm a waterside native too and see nothing like the problems afflicting parts of Belfast right now. I have lived away for years though and have never voted here. This election will be no different. But I do get impressed every time I come back at the steady number of improvements around the place. The only remotely political input I have engaged in here was to go along to the Waterside train station public consultation a year ago and suggest that the old one gets revamped and reopened. Glad to see that option won out!
Back to the numbers, the UUP have been hovering around a quota for a while now so it seems risky to run 2 candidates, especially as the DUP has gone for 4 and is looking to take the UUP out of the waterside for good. Is there something about the new areas that the UUP thinks makes it better for them? The new areas seem to bring in a lot more nationalist votes so unless the UUP votes are particularly concentrated in these areas over the DUP I can't see the logic. That said, I do know a few self-described UUP voters at the Limavady road part of the Caw ward so perhaps it's possible. Unlikely in my view. I think a more likely reason could be that Mary Hamilton is probably running (one of) her last election(s) and they may be looking to garner a bit of name recognition. They could of course co-opt a new face after the election but that always looks crass and would leave them open to the attack that "they only have 1 councillor in the Derry city council area and they didn't even get elected"
I think the DUP team in the town appear a lot more likeable and down to earth than their higher profile colleagues in Belfast. Drew Thompson always seems dead-on to me.
I see Colm Kavanagh is still acting as a subscriber for the Alliance Party but no longer standing. Do I remember correctly that he was a principal of Oakgrove integrated PS? Think I remember chatting to him as a young lad years ago but honestly can't remember.
I also think the current Mayor Martin Reilly of the SDLP has done a good job for the city this year and hope he keeps his seat. The only one who can take it realistically is SF. I would imagine most of the areas coming into the waterside would be good for the SDLP though. As long as he doesn't trip off the stage at a music festival or fall while cutting a supermarket ribbon between now and the election he should be fine.
I'm trying to get a read on Faughan. It's obviously based on the old Rural DEA, but there are obvious differences - Banagher is lost and part of Slievekirk gained. When you add in revisions to Waterside's boundaries, how does that add up? The Unionist share of the vote is going to shoot up, but by how much?
5th May 2011 – SDLP 14, Sinn Féin 10, DUP 5, UUP 1
The current mayor is SDLP and the deputy mayor is DUP.
Shauna Cusack (SDLP) was appointed in Northland DEA, in place of John Tierney. Bernard O’Hagan (Sinn Féin) was appointed in Northland DEA, in place of Maeve Fiona McLaughlin. Patrick McGinley (Sinn Féin) was appointed in Northland DEA, in place of Gearold MacLochlainn. Angela Dobbins (SDLP) was appointed in Shantallow DEA, in place of Colum Eastwood. Bridget Kinsella (Sinn Féin) was appointed in Waterside DEA, in place of Lynn Theresa Fleming. On 17 January 2014, Brian James Tierney (SDLP) was appointed in Shantallow DEA, in place of Shaun Gallagher.
Seven councilors are not seeking re-election Cityside – Jim Clifford (SDLP) Cityside – Ann Donnelly (SDLP) Northland – Eamon Patrick McAuley (SDLP) Rural – Thomas Joseph Conway (SDLP) Waterside – Joseph Miller (DUP) Waterside – April Garfield-Kidd (DUP) Waterside – Bridget Kinsella (Sinn Féin)
The remaining 23 councillors are standing in Ballyarnett, Faughan, Foyleside, The Moor and Waterside DEAs.
Strabane District Council comprises 16 members.
5th May 2011 – Sinn Féin 8, SDLP 1, DUP 4, UUP 1, Independent 2
The current chairperson and vice-chairperson are Sinn Féin.
Four councilors are not seeking re-election Glenelly – John Sayers Donnell (DUP) Glenelly – Michelle McMackin (Sinn Féin) Mourne – James O’Kane (Independent) Mourne – Jay McCauley (Sinn Féin)
The remaining 12 councillors are standing in Derg and Sperrin DEAs.
Oh dear. Well that settles Ballyarnett if nothing else. This isn't the first he's gotten into bother. I remember he said something about one of the SF candidates being Glaswegian. I also bumped into Jimmy on a night out once and remember thinking he was a loutish idiot then. I used to wonder what on earth the SDLP were doing running him.
I had Ballyarnett down as a must win 4/6 for the sdlp to be the largest party. Even if they get enough votes, they don't have the candidates.