Macedon has had an increased electorate,approx 3000 from the old university ward.therefore a higher quota and there just isn't enough nationalist votes.Mallusk ward has been split in two,approx 2000 have moved to the hightown
ward.this is the Mayfield and Holbrook estates,both are overwhelmingly nationalist.ill stick with my prediction.2 Sinn Fein 1 SDLP in Glengormley.no nationalist in macedon.
I take your points. I'd say you are probably correct in your projections. Although for clarification, can you confirm if a small part of Collinbridge (the part of Newtownabbey around the Bellevue arms) moves to Valley? The maps I'm comparing suggest Valley extends slightly into the Antrim line area. While I've no doubt this would be a lot fewer voters than the expansion into Rostulla ward, proportionately it wouldn't have to be in order for nationalists to gain a greater share.
Also, I see Rostulla is relatively mixed (due to the university campus no doubt). Is the part moving into the Macedon area equally mixed or is it separate from the university and like the surrounding wards in make up?
there is a amall area at the top of the o'neill road, where it meets the antrim road, this is in the Valley ward - the electorate here would be nationalist but the numbers would be small. I am unsure of the demographics of the ward area Rostulla but the Macedon DEA increased electorate will be through expansion north and east mainly into the University DEA and overwhelmingly unionist.
Looks like a very interesting area. Now that all the candidates are declared. Very optimistic from the SDLP to run 2 people in 'Airport' my own guess is that they hope to 'outbalance' SF and take their transfers. While the new area is quite balanced, I understand the Mallusk area joining probably has a lot more unionists than the ward as a whole, although Mallusk and Crumlin are changing so fast it's hard to be sure anyway. Possibly a seat for alliance as well as two nationalists and two unionists. Alliance possibly vulnerable to a 3rd unionist.
Fewer seats and a mixed area and a loyalist area moved in. Certainly loses the current SDLP seat there on my sums. Likely 2 unionists apiece for the DUP and UUP and 1 each for alliance and SF. Alliance again going on the offensive here with two.
Dunsilly is serious knife edge territory. The two blocks seem neck-and-neck here so someone will lose out. Seems like it's nationalists turn to run too many here as there are at most 3 seats for them. This is a bit too close to call. One each for the main four parties and a 2nd to either SF or DUP. I think I just give it to SF on the basis that the new supposedly unionist area moving in is apparently a good alliance area so unionists may not do as well as I predict them.
Glengormley urban (formerly Antrim Line) has been trending nationalist for a while culminating in three comfortably elected nationalists in 2011 and a unionist losing out. The area from Mallusk would appear to be mostly nationalist which will probably consolidate these three seats further without changing anything. In any case SDLP and SF are running their incumbents so they think so too. Two Alliance are running here also and an NI21. NI21 can run whereever they like at the minute but Alliance running two here makes little sense. Unionist vote seems too high for them to even have a sniff of a second. Unless they are hoping to avail of the new nationalist surplus here. Also the DUP are running three and the UUP two here so possibly the alliance are hoping to capitalise on a bit of vote shredding. Wishful thinking perhaps: No change here.
Macedon is the one area I would like locals to help with. As I pointed out above it creeps slightly into the old nationalist part of antrim line and takes in a chunk of the Rostulla ward. Rostulla is a lot more mixed than the surrounding areas presumably due the Jordanstown campus. If the chunk moving into Macedon is equally mixed (33C/52P) then it's probably enough to see a nationalist gain. If however the non-unionist electorate here is only concentrated in the immediate environs of the university then this transfer may have a mostly unionist electorate. SDLP is also contesting here which may bring out another type of voter. Without knowing the area well and applying a uniform spread I'd now predict a SF gain here. On current form, it would be from the UUP. The DUP is running 5 here which seems crazy so they must really fancy themselves to hold 4 and take the UUP seat. The UUP, TUV and PUP all running one each. I don't see the DUP winning 5. 4 would be doing well. I think this'll break 1 SF, 1 All, 3 DUP and 1 UUP just.
Ballyclare appears nearly identical. Considering the vast array of candidates, I'd say Alliance will just hold on for me. Have nothing to say the new parties will do particualarly well so as you were: 1 All 3 DUP 1 UUP.
Finally three mile water most closely resembles the old University DEA. Nationalists have given up here despite posting a 6% between them from a standing start last time. Makes me think that the SDLP must believe that their supporters have been shifted next door to Macedon. Last time Alliance on 18% benefitted from that 6% and another few transfers to land a 2nd seat just. I don't see that happening in a 6 seater. Alliance to lose for me. Not sure who is to benefit though. DUP must be in poll position, but PUP standing 2 here suggests they must have some strength. I actually would go for that too and say it'll be 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 PUP and 1 ALL.
Overall (/40): 15 DUP 8 UUP 7 SF 6 All 3 SDLP 1 PUP
5th May 2011 – DUP 5, UUP 5, Sinn Fein 4, SDLP 3, Alliance Party 2
The current mayor is UUP and the deputy mayor is DUP.
Bernard Gerard Duffin (SDLP) was appointed in Antrim North West DEA, in place of Bobby Loughran Kieran Patrick McMullan (SDLP) was appointed in Antrim Town DEA, in place of Gráinne Teggart On 20 December 2013, Linda Diane Clarke (DUP) was appointed in Antrim North West DEA, in place of Trevor Clarke On 20 December 2013, John Smyth (DUP) was appointed in Antrim Town DEA, in place of Pam Cameron
Two councilors are not seeking re-election Antrim South East – Sam Dunlop (DUP) Antrim Town – Kieran Patrick McMullan (SDLP)
The remaining 17 councillors are standing in Airport, Antrim and Dunsilly DEAs.
Newtownabbey Borough Council comprises 25 members.
5th May 2011 – DUP 12, UUP 5, Alliance Party 5, Sinn Féin 2, SDLP 1
The current mayor is UUP and the deputy mayor is DUP.
Dr. Philip Brett (DUP) was appointed in Antrim Line DEA, in place of Paula Bradley Timothy Paul Girvan (DUP) was appointed in Ballyclare DEA, in place of Paul Girvan
Four councilors are not seeking re-election Antrim Line – Marie Mackessy (Sinn Féin) Ballyclare – Jackie Mann (DUP) University – Ken Robinson (UUP) University – Lynn Frazer (Alliance Party)
The remaining 21 councillors are standing in Ballyclare, Glengormley Urban, Macedon and Threemilewater DEAs.
Airport DEA – 6 Antrim councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Thomas Burns (SDLP) – Antrim South East Alan Lawther (Alliance Party) – Antrim South East Anne-Marie Logue (Sinn Féin) – Antrim South East Paul Michael (UUP) – Antrim South East Mervyn Rea (UUP) – Antrim South East Roy Thompson (DUP) – Antrim South East
Antrim DEA – 6 Antrim councillors are competing for the 6 seats :-
Adrian Cochrane-Watson (UUP) – Antrim Town Brian Graham (DUP) – Antrim Town Neil Kelly (Alliance Party) – Antrim Town Noel Maguire (Sinn Féin) – Antrim Town Drew Ritchie (UUP) – Antrim Town John Smyth (DUP) – Antrim Town
Ballyclare DEA – 4 Newtownabbey councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Jim Bingham (UUP) – Ballyclare Mandy Girvan (DUP) – Ballyclare Tim Girvan (DUP) – Ballyclare Pat McCudden (Alliance Party) – Ballyclare
Dunsilly DEA – 5 Antrim councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Anthony Brady (Sinn Féin) – Antrim North West Linda Clarke (DUP) – Antrim North West Henry John Cushinan (Sinn Féin) – Antrim North West Brian Duffin (SDLP) – Antrim North West Roderick Swann (UUP) – Antrim North West
Glengormley Urban DEA – 6 Newtownabbey councillors are competing for the 7 seats :-
Audrey Ball (DUP) – Antrim Line John Blair (Alliance Party) – Antrim Line Philip Brett (DUP) – Antrim Line Mark Cosgrove (UUP) – Antrim Line Noreen McClelland (SDLP) – Antrim Line Gerry O’Reilly (Sinn Féin) – Antrim Line
Macedon DEA – 6 Newtownabbey councillors are competing for the 5 seats :-
Billy de Courcy (DUP) – Macedon Thomas William Hogg (DUP) – Macedon Victor Robinson (DUP) – Macedon John Scott (UUP) – Macedon Dineen Walker (DUP) – Macedon Billy Webb (Alliance Party) – Macedon
Threemilewater DEA – 5 Newtownabbey councillors are competing for the 7 seats :-
Fraser Agnew (UUP) – University William Blair (DUP) – University Pamela Barr (DUP) – University Tom Campbell (Alliance Party) – University Robert Hill (DUP) – University
I found a map indicating that the part of the old Rostulla ward moving into the Macedon DEA is a demographically 50/50 area. I wouldtherefore predict that that coupled with the small move into Antrim line and the multitude of unionists running will probably deliver a SF seat in Macedon. Still close though.
The SDLP vote's low amount of transfers to SF will probably scupper your prediction here. The quota will be a few hundred higher than previously so I cannot see a nationalist gain here.
You may well be right that SDLP voters don't transfer enough but I always get confused when people quote numerically higher or lower quotas. Its irrelevant. Its all about percentages. The SDLP and SF got 6% in the university ward from a standing start last time. The vast majority of that 6% is in the lower half of the old Rostulla ward which is probably between 35 and 40% nationalist. Even if the SDLP transfer badly, and their votes end up going nowhere it just has the effect of effectively reducing the quota for any remaining candidates in the race.
The SDLP also have a shot at the same seat but would need at least their 2005 share in Macedon plus the upper hand in Rostulla to be close enough to SF to overtake on alliance transfers. Not sure how likely it is, although the SDLP put a candidate up here after not bothering last time so they've obviously worked out they have some chance.
Received this from the Alliance Party on Facebook.
"What are Sinn Fein up to in Antrim town? They have put out a leaflet falsely claiming our candidate Sian O'Neill is standing for the DUP. This is not true. Sian is a dedicated member of Alliance. Don' be put off by these smear tactics, strengthen the Alliance team by voting for Sian O'Neill"
The Boundary Commission made final recommendations here in mid December. This is another solidly Unionist Council. It is a merger of Antrim Borough Council of 19 seats across 3 DEAs and Newtownabbey Borough Council of 25 seats across 4 DEAs. Both combine to form this new Council of 40 seats across 7 Electoral Areas. This is territory in which the UUP used be in the ascendancy but in which the DUP now dominate. www.deac-ni.org/index/current-review-of-district-electoral-areas/final_antrimandnabbey__300dpi_a2_.pdf
From West to East it is as follows:
1. Dunsilly (5): This DEA is essentially the old Antrim North West DEA and the Parkgate ward from Antrim South-East. It remains a predominantly Nationalist DEA. While on paper the figures are very tight between SF and the SDLP the former can expect to receive 2 quotas while the latter will receive 1. Both Unionist seats can be expected to fall to the DUP. Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP.
2. Antrim (6): This DEA is essentially the old Antrim Town DEA plus Farranshane and Ballycraigy from the old Antrim South-East. There is over a comfortable Nationalist quota on paper and it favours SF given their numerical superiority over the SDLP. Antrim Town is strongly Unionist. There is a safe quota for the Alliance Party and 2 quotas for the DUP. As the UUP have 1.75 quotas they can expect to receive the other 2 seats. Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 APNI, 1 SF.
3. Airport (5) This is named after Aldergrove Airport and is made up of the remainder of the South-East DEA and Mallusk from the Antrim Line DEA. The DUP and the UUP both have a safe quota here and the DUP will take a second seat through Unionist transfers. On the Nationalist side the SDLP have a quota. The fifth seat is interesting. SF have 0.89 quota while Alliance have 0.75 but Alliance have transfers from Independents and Unionists whereas there are no transfers for SF. I give Alliance the last seat for the moment. Prediction: 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 APNI.
4. Ballyclare (5): This DEA is essentially the majority of the old Ballyclare DEA. On that basis I predict it will return the same representation as in 2011. Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 APNI.
5. Macedon (6): This is effectively the old Macedon DEA again. It is a strong area for the DUP and on paper they could expect to receive 4 quotas to 1 for the Alliance party. The final seat at present will go to the UUP as they have 0.6 quotas and could expect more transfers. Last time around SF had 0.68 of a quota here on their first attempt but got no transfers. I would predict a Nationalist gain long-term here, possibly at the next election but for now I leave as is. Prediction: 4 DUP, 1 APNI, 1 UUP.
6. University (6): This DEA is essentially 6/7 of the old University DEA, with the exception of Carnmoney. It is heavily Unionist and there are 3 quotas for the DUP and 2 for the UUP as well as a safe quota for the Alliance Party. Like Macedon there is a growing Nationalist population but much further away from a seat. Prediction:3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 APNI.
7. Glengormley Urban (7): This final DEA combines Carnmoney with 6/7 of the old Antrim Line DEA. On paper there are 3 quotas for the DUP and 1 for the UUP. There is also a quota each for SF, the Alliance Party and the SDLP. The Nationalist population is growing here and they are near 3 quotas but for the moment I predict 2. Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 APNI, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP.
As can be seen the DUP are very close here to an overall majority and may get one depending on how the UUP poll. I could see gains for Nationalists here, over and above of what I have predicted as indicated in my guesstimates for the DEAs. I think the Alliance are pretty solid here overall bar Airport and Ballyclare where they have to fight.
Hi TUV Man It was a very good election for TUV. Doing well in areas outside North Antrim. It sets them up for a run at assembly seats in East Antrim and elsewhere. DUP lost votes to both TUV and UUP. Overall 13 council seats was more than I predicted. Interesting to see if any of them have potential to become bigger figures, as TUV will need more than just Jim Allister to continue growing.