By-elections - 5th December 2013

[piperdave]

Dec 6, 2013 22:47:49 GMT No Offence Alan said:

This is even a worse result for the Greens than for UKIP (down from 4th in 2012 to 8th this time), so I guess Green talk of a Euro seat is leaky too.

Out of curiousity, I undertook a comparison of UKIP and Green votes in the wards they contested in 2012. UKIP averaged 2.41% with the 37 candidates in 36 wards they contested (for some reason, they had two candidates contesting Speyside/Glenlivet in Moray). The Scottish Greens averaged 6.94% in the 86 wards they stood in.

UKIP had 1 candidate poll in excess of 10%. Mike Scott-Hayward polled 11.27% in the East Neuk of Fife. The Greens obtained at least 20% in 3 wards, headlining with Gavin Corbett's 24.07% in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart. They also scored between 10 and 20% in a further 12 wards.

At the other end of the spectrum, 8 UKIP candidates couldn't break 1% whereas no Green polled so low.

So while you might be right that a Green European victory celebration is premature, they are significantly closer to the 10.4% they would have needed to take the last seat from Catherine Stihler in 2009 than UKIP are.

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2013 13:54:17 GMT piperdave said:

Dec 6, 2013 22:47:49 GMT No Offence Alan said:

This is even a worse result for the Greens than for UKIP (down from 4th in 2012 to 8th this time), so I guess Green talk of a Euro seat is leaky too.

Out of curiousity, I undertook a comparison of UKIP and Green votes in the wards they contested in 2012. UKIP averaged 2.41% with the 37 candidates in 36 wards they contested (for some reason, they had two candidates contesting Speyside/Glenlivet in Moray). The Scottish Greens averaged 6.94% in the 86 wards they stood in.

UKIP had 1 candidate poll in excess of 10%. Mike Scott-Hayward polled 11.27% in the East Neuk of Fife. The Greens obtained at least 20% in 3 wards, headlining with Gavin Corbett's 24.07% in Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart. They also scored between 10 and 20% in a further 12 wards.

At the other end of the spectrum, 8 UKIP candidates couldn't break 1% whereas no Green polled so low.

So while you might be right that a Green European victory celebration is premature, they are significantly closer to the 10.4% they would have needed to take the last seat from Catherine Stihler in 2009 than UKIP are.

Why 2012???

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Because there weren't any regular Scottish local elections in 2013?

[piperdave]

Dec 7, 2013 15:17:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Because there weren't any regular Scottish local elections in 2013?

Bingo. And 2012 also gives a much more localised view of party effort and electoral support.

[middleenglander]

Cardiff, Riverside - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"	since 2011 B	since 2008 "top"	since 2008 "average"
Labour	1,120	50.3%	+3.6%	+3.3%	+3.5%	+17.9%	+17.6%
Plaid Cymru	773	34.7%	+3.6%	+4.4%	+4.4%	-9.2%	-11.0%
Conservative	107	4.8%	-2.9%	-3.4%	-5.4%	-7.4%	-5.6%
UKIP	97	4.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSAC	70	3.1%	+0.4%	+0.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	58	2.6%	-1.2%	-1.3%	-2.5%	-8.9%	-8.6%
Green			-7.9%	-7.5%	-7.6%
Total votes	2,155		-1,480	-1,116	-1,407	-200	-52

Little swing since either 2012 or 2011 by-election but ~14% Plaid Cymru to Labour since 2008 (if the voting figures are correct)

Cardiff, Splott - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"	since 2008 "top"	since 2008 "average"
Labour	706	39.7%	-8.2%	-10.0%	+0.1%	-0.8%
Lib Dem	604	34.0%	+4.0%	+6.4%	-5.7%	-4.5%
UKIP	209	11.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	94	5.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	86	4.8%	+0.5%	+0.5%	-5.1%	-5.1%
TUSAC	80	4.5%	+1.5%	+1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Plaid Cymru			-7.1%	-6.4%	-7.3%	-7.2%
Green			-4.5%	-4.9%
Communist			-3.3%	-3.7%	-3.4%	-3.8%
Total votes	1,779		-1,742	-1,403	-1,971	-1,552

Swing Labour to Lib Dem 6.1% /8.2% since 2012 but Lib Dem to Labour ~2% since 2008

Chelmsford, South Woodham - Elmwood & Woodvale - South Woodham Ferrers Independent gain from Conservative

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
SWF Independent	281	31.4%	-5.7%	-5.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	275	30.8%	-16.8%	-17.3%	-27.8%	-28.4%
UKIP	249	27.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	65	7.3%	-1.8%	-1.6%	-1.9%	-1.5%
Lib Dem	24	2.7%	-3.6%	-3.8%	-8.9%	-7.2%
Independent					-20.6%	-22.1%
Total votes	894		-1,566	-1,481	-1,119	-986

Swing Conservative to South Woodham Ferrers Independent ~5½% since 2011 but not meaningful since 2007

Dartford, Swanscombe - Labour gain from Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents Association

Party	2013 vote	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Labour	274	29.4%	+7.4%	+8.1%	+7.5%	+8.2%
S&G Residents Association	273	29.3%	-35.8%	-35.9%	-48.8%	-49.5%
UKIP	200	21.5%	+8.6%	+8.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	146	15.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	38	4.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	931		-702	-637	-280	-221

Swing Residents Association to Labour ~22% since 2011 and ~28% since 2007 although substantially due to fragmented Residents Association vote.

Glasgow, Shettleston - Labour hold

Party	2013 vote	2013 share	since 2012	since 2007
Labour	2,025	53.5%	-7.0%	+1.1%
SNP	1,086	28.7%	-2.2%	+7.2%
Conservative	224	5.9%	+1.7%	-0.5%
UKIP	129	3.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSAC	68	1.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	53	1.4%	+0.7%	-3.4%
No Bedroom Tax	50	1.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	41	1.1%	-0.4%	-1.5%
Socialist	35	0.9%	+0.0%	-1.0%
Christian	34	0.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Britannica	31	0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Democratic Alliance	6	0.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Glasgow First			-1.4%
Solidarity				-5.2%
BNP				-3.0%
Unionist				-2.2%
Total votes	3,782		-3,258	-5,021

Swing Labour to SNP 2.4% since 2012 and 3.0% since 2007

Liverpool, Riverside - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012 B	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	1,055	70.9%	-5.9%	-10.5%	-9.0%	+3.4%	-2.4%
Green	144	9.7%	+0.9%	+3.9%	+4.2%	+4.9%	+2.4%
UKIP	119	8.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	64	4.3%	-0.1%	from nowhere	-1.3%	-13.0%	-3.7%
TUSAC	49	3.3%	-2.9%	+0.0%	+0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	39	2.6%	-1.2%	-1.6%	-3.1%	-4.5%	-4.9%
English Democrat	9	0.6%	from nowhere	-2.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent C	7	0.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent G	1	0.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal				-2.0%	-0.8%	-3.3%	-4.0%
Total votes	1,487		-366	-1,787	-2,062	-4,407	1,048

Swing Labour to Green 3.4% since July 2012 by-election and ~7% since both 2012 & 2011  

Manchester, Ancoats & Clayton - Labour hold

Party	2013 B2 votes	2013 B2 share	since 2013 B1	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	965	57.5%	-13.0%	-16.8%	-14.2%	+2.7%	-2.2%
Liberal	219	13.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	138	8.2%	-1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	106	6.3%	+1.2%	-2.3%	-5.7%	-1.5%	-1.5%
Conservative	75	4.5%	-0.2%	-2.4%	-4.6%	-8.6%	-9.5%
Pirate	72	4.3%	-0.2%	+1.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
BNP	46	2.7%	-0.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	31	1.8%	-0.7%	-2.2%	-5.4%	-22.6%	-15.1%
TUSAC	17	1.0%	from nowhere	-2.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Communist	9	0.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	1,678		-79	-829	-1,391	-3,514	-713

Swing not meaningful

Nuneaton & Bedworth, Arbury - Conservative gain from Labour

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2010	since 2008
Conservative	395	40.4%	+7.7%	-1.0%	-1.8%
Labour	369	37.7%	-19.6%	-4.6%	+6.6%
UKIP	109	11.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	56	5.7%	-4.3%	-1.2%	from nowhere
BNP	35	3.6%	from nowhere	-5.8%	-14.6%
TUSAC	8	0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
English Democrats	6	0.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dems					-8.5%
Total votes	978		-474	-2,292	-929

Swing Labour to Conservative 13.7% since 2012 and 1.8% since 2010 but Conservative to Labour 4.2% since 2008

[cibwr]

Dec 7, 2013 11:42:29 GMT The Bishop said:

The absence of a Plaid candidate in Splott is noted - does our own cibwr (or another Plaidster here) have any comment?

I don't really know other than I think resources were put into the Riverside seat while Splott isn't a target seat.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I suspect a Plaid/Liberal Democrat "understanding" that Plaid would leave Splott alone, and in return the Lib Dems would only put up a paper candidate in Riverside.

Wouldn't need to be anything on paper, just an "understanding".

[The Bishop]

Yes, that has to be the suspicion - hence my comment. When was the last time PC left a principal level by-election uncontested?

[greatkingrat]

Dec 8, 2013 20:10:10 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, that has to be the suspicion - hence my comment. When was the last time PC left a principal level by-election uncontested?

It's not that unusual - they have only stood in 8 of 12 Welsh by-elections in 2013.

[listener]

Bridport (North) in West Dorset - Lib Dem 248, Con 194, Lab 170 - Lib Dem hold