By-elections - 12th September 2013

[Merseymike]

Interesting result at Dunstable. The candidate who won as an Independent was once a Labour councillor. Wonder what the main elements of their campaign were?

[maxque]

Sept 12, 2013 22:46:00 GMT Merseymike said:

Interesting result at Dunstable. The candidate who won as an Independent was once a Labour councillor. Wonder what the main elements of their campaign were?

Considering than the other councillor for that ward is also a Labor-turned-Independant, it's probably due to some issue concerning the ward a few years ago.

[brianjrvs]

Fritville Result Conservative gain Independent

Cons 221
UKIP 163

TO 25 percent

[Pimpernal]

Sept 12, 2013 22:46:00 GMT Merseymike said:

Interesting result at Dunstable. The candidate who won as an Independent was once a Labour councillor. Wonder what the main elements of their campaign were?

Socialism?

[maxque]

It's only a bunch of popular former councillors which were deselected a few years ago. Voting for an Independant is rarely ideology-based, more personality-based.

[Tony Otim]

But they did much better in the other Hitchin contest, which actually swung to the Conservatives since last year. The Conservatives also getting a swing in their favour in Charnwood, but losing Central Beds, so a pretty mixed bag.

I wonder if the Chris Pain, Lincs UKIP split had any impact on the East Lindsey result? Maybe not...

[Pete Whitehead]

I'd like to think the local party concentrated on the district ward where there was far better potential and where the result was much better. For obvious reasons I have fairly strong links with the local constituency party and had offered to go up to help but they seemed to think they had things covered. Rather worryingly when I first discussed these by-elections with the person organising things she didn't seem to be aware that the district and county seats covered different areas. The county seat has quite a large ethnic minority vote which inevitably puts a ceiling on UKIP support whereas Oughton is primarily a white working class area and the result there was about what I would have expected (in fact it was 0.1% lower than my prediction)

[greatkingrat]

Yes, David Billing. His widow won the county seat for Labour (she is already a district councillor in her own right).

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes it was the same bloke. I think they would have taken my help if I'd been available earlier but I didn't have any spare time until this week and they wanted everything done by the weekend. A bit odd if you ask me, but HItchin isn't my problem

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 13, 2013 8:50:45 GMT @trident said:

I noticed that the by-elections were caused by deaths - was it the same Labour councillor who held both seats?

Yes, Dave Billing, who was the husband of the successful candidate for the county division.

[David Ashforth]

Sept 13, 2013 8:50:45 GMT @trident said:

That sounds odd - normally local parties will welcome with open arms anyone who offers to help in a by-election!

I volunteered to help in the Wickersley ward, Rotherham, by-election in August 2008. There was already one Conservative councillor in the ward which had been gained from Labour in May that year. But my offer of help was turned down.

Labour retained the seat by 47 votes.

[The Bishop]

The contrast in Labour's results in the Herts "double header" is notable - interestingly, not dissimilar to the Tories in Northants last week.

[The Bishop]

In both cases, it could also be UKIP deciding to target the smaller division of the two.

[Pete Whitehead]

I think i'd stick with Trident's theory

[The Bishop]

Also notable that the Greens were well down in both Herts seats - the generic "protest vote" now going to UKIP when they didn't stand last time?

[Tony Otim]

Or just our general crap-ness in most by-elections where we're not really in contention?

[middleenglander]

Central Bedfordshire, Dunstable Northfields - Independent gain from Conservative

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Independent 1	434	33.4%	-0.1%	-1.7%
Conservative	305	23.5%	-5.4%	-6.7%
Labour	297	22.9%	-0.7%	-1.3%
UKIP	227	17.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dems	35	2.7%	-3.7%	-3.0%
Independent 2 & 3			-7.6%	-4.9%
Total votes	1,298		-1,320	-1,204

Swing Conservative to Independent ~2½% since 2011 when an Independent topped the poll with the late Conservative taking the second seat.

There was a ward with the same name prior to boundary changes in 2011 with an electoral history:
2002 3 x Labour*, 2003 Labour, 2004 Conservative, 2006 2 x Labour**, 2007 Labour, 2009 1 Independent & 1 Conservative***
* includes Julian Murray elected as Independent in 2009 and  2011
** Julian Murray together with Bev Coleman who was the Independent elected in by-election
*** Jeanette Freeman defeated Conservative candidate in by-election and the unsuccessful Conservative in 2011

Charnwood, Wreake Villages - Conservative hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011	since 2007	since 2003
Conservative	396	82%	+3.9%	-2.0%	+8.4%
Labour	87	18%	-3.9%	+2.0%	-8.4%
Total votes	483		-674	-576	-484

Swing Labour to Conservative ~4% since 2011 and 8% since 2003 but 2% Conservative to Labour since 2007

East Lindsey, Frithville - Conservative gain from Independent

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011	since 2007
Conservative	221	57.6%	+23.6%	from nowhere
UKIP	163	42.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-66.1%	-100%
Total votes	384		-291	n/a

Swing not meaningful

Hertfordshire, Hitchin North - Labour hold

Party	2013 B votes	2013 B share	since 2013	since 2009	since 2005
Labour	1,250	47.8%	+1.8%	+15.5%	+7.3%
Conservative	673	25.7%	-7.0%	-6.7%	-5.7%
Lib Dems	246	9.4%	+2.8%	-4.8%	-10.9%
UKIP	235	9.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Greens	212	8.1%	-6.5%	-9.3%	+0.3%
BNP				-3.7%
Total votes	2,616		-653	-2,010	-4,398

Swing Conservative to Labour ~4½% since May, 11% since 2009 and ~6% since 2005

North Hertfordshire, Hitchen Oughton - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	361	48.0%	-12.8%	+9.1%	-2.9%
Conservative	180	23.9%	-0.7%	-10.9%	-8.7%
UKIP	148	19.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	32	4.3%	-5.6%	-1.7%	-3.6%
Lib Dems	31	4.1%	-0.6%	-16.1%	-4.5%
Total votes	752		-297	-1,530	-505

Swing Labour to Conservative 6% snce 2012 but Conservative to Labour 10% since 2010 and 3% since 2008

[innocentabroad]

Sept 13, 2013 8:37:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'd like to think the local party concentrated on the district ward where there was far better potential and where the result was much better. For obvious reasons I have fairly strong links with the local constituency party and had offered to go up to help but they seemed to think they had things covered. Rather worryingly when I first discussed these by-elections with the person organising things she didn't seem to be aware that the district and county seats covered different areas. The county seat has quite a large ethnic minority vote which inevitably puts a ceiling on UKIP support whereas Oughton is primarily a white working class area and the result there was about what I would have expected (in fact it was 0.1% lower than my prediction)

So you admit UKIP is a racist party, Pete? Yet whenever I characterise UKIP as "BNP-lite" people like you go batshit.

Truth hurts.

[Pete Whitehead]

[carlton43]

Sept 14, 2013 7:47:50 GMT innocentabroad said:

Sept 13, 2013 8:37:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'd like to think the local party concentrated on the district ward where there was far better potential and where the result was much better. For obvious reasons I have fairly strong links with the local constituency party and had offered to go up to help but they seemed to think they had things covered. Rather worryingly when I first discussed these by-elections with the person organising things she didn't seem to be aware that the district and county seats covered different areas. The county seat has quite a large ethnic minority vote which inevitably puts a ceiling on UKIP support whereas Oughton is primarily a white working class area and the result there was about what I would have expected (in fact it was 0.1% lower than my prediction)

So you admit UKIP is a racist party, Pete? Yet whenever I characterise UKIP as "BNP-lite" people like you go batshit.

Truth hurts.

Oh dear! Hit the 'Like' button instead of 'Quote'!!!

This is straight out of the Marxist stable of phoney philosophical rhetoric....or complete bollocks in plain speak. Pete says an area with  a "quite large ethnic minority vote..." will probably not be good for the UKIP vote, which is true and neutral as to anything other than being factual. It could just imply a tiny racist attitude by those ethnic voters in not supporting UKIP because they perceive that party to be predomnantly middle-aged, lower middle-class whites? How can them not voting for us make us the racists? That is more anal than tortured logic.

I witnessed a rant by similar people to you after the first Obama election when I noted over 60% of white males voted against him but nearly 90% of black males voted for him. The whites were racists and the blacks good-hearted citizens turning out manfully for the better candidate. This is all part of what Muggeridge termed the 'Great Liberal Death Wish'. They are always right. We are always wrong...and vicious...and racist...etc.

Nonesense on stilts...up with which we are getting increasingly irritated. Take your racism-chip-stained sloping shoulders off somewhere and give them a burial.