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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 14:27:06 GMT
December 8th Lab 36% Con 33% LD 8% UKIP 15% Oths 8% Greens 4 SNP 3
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Post by Robert on Dec 12, 2014 12:20:52 GMT
Dec 12th
Con 34 Lab 35 LD 9 UKIP 14 Oths 7
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Post by Robert on Dec 15, 2014 10:41:10 GMT
Dec 15th
Con 34 (NC) Lab 36 (+1) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) Oths 9 (+2)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 15, 2014 21:20:08 GMT
Dec 15th Con 34 (NC) Lab 36 (+1) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) Oths 9 (+2) Crossover approaches! (And I don't mean Lab / Con)
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 15, 2014 22:21:30 GMT
Dec 15th Con 34 (NC) Lab 36 (+1) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) Oths 9 (+2) Crossover approaches! (And I don't mean Lab / Con) No! Of course you mean Green through LD. Well spotted Gwyn.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 16, 2014 13:31:16 GMT
Crossover approaches! (And I don't mean Lab / Con) No! Of course you mean Green through LD. Well spotted Gwyn.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 16, 2014 14:39:13 GMT
Dec 15th Con 34 (NC) Lab 36 (+1) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) Oths 9 (+2) Crossover approaches! (And I don't mean Lab / Con) Erm, I think I may have missed what you mean. The LD vote is steady with Populus, in fact it is up one in the latest poll. Total others including Green are 9%. Other polls may be showing the Greens aproaching crossover with the Lib Dems, but not this one.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 15:12:00 GMT
Crossover approaches! (And I don't mean Lab / Con) Erm, I think I may have missed what you mean. The LD vote is steady with Populus, in fact it is up one in the latest poll. Total others including Green are 9%. Other polls may be showing the Greens aproaching crossover with the Lib Dems, but not this one. I think he means ld ukip crossover.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 16, 2014 20:26:24 GMT
Erm, I think I may have missed what you mean. The LD vote is steady with Populus, in fact it is up one in the latest poll. Total others including Green are 9%. Other polls may be showing the Greens aproaching crossover with the Lib Dems, but not this one. I think he means ld ukip crossover. You are correct Joe, but perhaps I need to provide some context. I am notoriously pessimistic about our prospects (in my councillor days I would come in from canvassing with 20% support; my colleague, from the same street, would come back with 60%; the outcome would be 55%). For some time I have felt that the LDs would come 4th in May (in votes) but 3rd in seats by a considerable margin: LDs 30-something, UKIP 1 or 2. I now have a feeling that, as the election draws nearer **, the Conservatives will edge upwards {crossover 1}, Labour will move but little, UKIP will fall, and the LDs rise {crossover 2}. It will also be interesting to see an ICM poll. Just a feeling but, as I say, I'm not an optimist by nature and I have been around this game a long time. [First election as a teller was 1966! Okay, my mum was a teller and I went with her .....] ** by nearing I also include the campaign itself, during which - I both hope and expect - the Lib Dem 'ground war' will outperform UKIP and the Greens
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 20:32:22 GMT
I think he means ld ukip crossover. You are correct Joe, but perhaps I need to provide some context. I am notoriously pessimistic about our prospects (in my councillor days I would come in from canvassing with 20% support; my colleague, from the same street, would come back with 60%; the outcome would be 55%). For some time I have felt that the LDs would come 4th in May (in votes) but 3rd in seats by a considerable margin: LDs 30-something, UKIP 1 or 2. I now have a feeling that, as the election draws nearer **, the Conservatives will edge upwards {crossover 1}, Labour will move but little, UKIP will fall, and the LDs rise {crossover 2}. It will also be interesting to see an ICM poll. Just a feeling but, as I say, I'm not an optimist by nature and I have been around this game a long time. [First election as a teller was 1966! Okay, my mum was a teller and I went with her .....] ** by nearing I also include the campaign itself, during which - I both hope and expect - the Lib Dem 'ground war' will outperform UKIP and the Greens Was that for the liberals?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2014 21:18:17 GMT
I do agree with Gwynn's projections but then I am a pessimist too (for example I never actually thought we would top the nationally in the European elections)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 22:40:30 GMT
Unless the UKIP campaign is an absolute fiasco (not out of the question) I would be very surprised if they finished behind the LDs in vote share. I think they will also win more than 2 seats though how many and where they will win them is very difficult to forecast (beyond almost certainly Carswell)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 17, 2014 17:26:03 GMT
You are correct Joe, but perhaps I need to provide some context. I am notoriously pessimistic about our prospects (in my councillor days I would come in from canvassing with 20% support; my colleague, from the same street, would come back with 60%; the outcome would be 55%). For some time I have felt that the LDs would come 4th in May (in votes) but 3rd in seats by a considerable margin: LDs 30-something, UKIP 1 or 2. I now have a feeling that, as the election draws nearer **, the Conservatives will edge upwards {crossover 1}, Labour will move but little, UKIP will fall, and the LDs rise {crossover 2}. It will also be interesting to see an ICM poll. Just a feeling but, as I say, I'm not an optimist by nature and I have been around this game a long time. [First election as a teller was 1966! Okay, my mum was a teller and I went with her .....] ** by nearing I also include the campaign itself, during which - I both hope and expect - the Lib Dem 'ground war' will outperform UKIP and the Greens Was that for the liberals? No.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 17, 2014 17:26:58 GMT
I do agree with Gwynn's projections but then I am a pessimist too (for example I never actually thought we would top the nationally in the European elections) I would not distinguish them with the label of projections. Musings might be more accurate.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2014 17:31:03 GMT
Unless the UKIP campaign is an absolute fiasco (not out of the question) I would be very surprised if they finished behind the LDs in vote share. I agree. I still think the lds will comfortably outpoll ukip.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 18, 2014 10:12:48 GMT
So you aren't agreeing with him at all, then
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 10:14:02 GMT
Unless the UKIP campaign is an absolute fiasco (not out of the question) I would be very surprised if they finished behind the LDs in vote share. I agree. I still think the lds will comfortably outpoll ukip. The Bishop
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 19, 2014 11:32:53 GMT
Today's poll: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 13 LibDem 9 - not sure if this is their last of the year?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2014 16:32:18 GMT
Today's poll: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 13 LibDem 9 - not sure if this is their last of the year? Green 4, SNP 4
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Post by Devonian on Dec 22, 2014 22:31:58 GMT
Today's poll: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 13 LibDem 9 - not sure if this is their last of the year? No apparently this is Lab 35% Con 35% UKIP 12% Lib Dem 9%
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