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Post by manchesterman on Oct 16, 2019 20:20:40 GMT
After the hugely popular Cornwall constituency map I made I've now had a go at doing another pre-Norman land - ANGLIA
Here's the constituency key:
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 16, 2019 20:22:36 GMT
and here are the maps:
NORFOLK
(file size too big to add as an attachment
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 16, 2019 20:23:35 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 20, 2020 14:08:02 GMT
I've been having a play around with the new Boundary Assistant site. Not much new that can be done until the up to date electorates are uploaded but I thoguht I'd play about with the existing seats a bit in order to improve the situation (notioanlly) at the last election In London it's possible to flip five seats into the Conservative column 1. Dagenham & Hornchurch - relative to Dagenham & Rainham, loses Chadwell Heath and Whalebone to Romford, gains Hacton and St Andrews from Hornchurch & Upminster which gains Squirrels Heath from Romford. Would have a notional majority of about 8,000 in 2019 and clearly only one ward actually needs moving to have the desired effect. 2. Enfield Southgate. Loses Bowes, Palmers Green and Southgate Green, Gains Chase, Highlands and Town. Rename Enfield West. Notional Conservative majority of c. 4,000 3. Putney & Barnes - Gains Barnes and Mortlake from Ricjmond Park. Roehampton moves the other way. Notional Conservative majority just under 2,000 (though in reality the altered TV situation in the Barnes and Mortlake area might easily have overturned that. 4. Croydon Central gains Sanderstead and Selsdon from Croydon South and is renamed Croydon East. Addiscombe and Fairfield move the other way and South is renamed Croydon West. East would have had a Tory majorty of about 1,700 and West under 5,000 so there would be a risk here in ending up with no seats. 5. Eltham & Welling. Loses Kidbrooke and Shooters Hill. Gains Blackfen, East Wickham and Falconwood from Old Bexley & Sidcup which gains Christchurch, Danson and St Michaels from Bexleyheath. Bexleyhreath and Crayford picks up Belvedere, Erith and Northumberland Heath and revives Erith & Crayford. Eltham & Welling has a notional Conservative majority of 6,500 without endangering the position in Erith & Crayford (majority c. 9,000)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 20, 2020 14:20:52 GMT
It's also possible to flip a couple of seats in Greater Manchester. Oldham East & Saddleworth is easy and logical enough - loses Alexandra and ST Mary's from inner Oldham and gains the two Royton wards. Notional Conservative majority of about 3,000 Hyde is a little more contrives, being based on Stalybridge & Hyde less Dukinfield Stalybridge, Mossley and Stalybridge North and gains the two Marple wards. Hazel Grove gains Manor and Stepping Hill in compensation and becomes a little more vulnerable to the Lib Dems. Stockport moves North to take Reddish while Denton joins with Droylesden and Failsworth from Ashton to revive the old Droylesden constituency, with Ashton picking up the wards removed from Stalybridge & Hyde There is of course an obvious adjustment to be made in the Wirral as well Wirral West loses Upton and gains Heswall creating a notional majority of c. 4,000. Wirral South (renamed Bebington) gains Prenton from Birkenhead which in turn takes Upton from Wirral West
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 20, 2020 14:34:07 GMT
It's also possible to flip a couple of seats in Greater Manchester. Oldham East & Saddleworth is easy and logical enough - loses Alexandra and ST Mary's from inner Oldham and gains the two Royton wards. Notional Conservative majority of about 3,000 Hyde is a little more contrives, being based on Stalybridge & Hyde less Dukinfield Stalybridge, Mossley and Stalybridge North and gains the two Marple wards. Hazel Grove gains Manor and Stepping Hill in compensation and becomes a little more vulnerable to the Lib Dems. Stockport moves North to take Reddish while Denton joins with Droylesden and Failsworth from Ashton to revive the old Droylesden constituency, with Ashton picking up the wards removed from Stalybridge & Hyde There is of course an obvious adjustment to be made in the Wirral as well Wirral West loses Upton and gains Heswall creating a notional majority of c. 4,000. Wirral South (renamed Bebington) gains Prenton from Birkenhead which in turn takes Upton from Wirral West It should be possible to flip Wansbeck fairly easily, swapping the Newbiggin Central and East ward for all of Longhorsley and Pegswood. You could probably make a reasonable case for it too - Longhorsley is the upper Wansbeck valley and is essentially Morpeth's hinterland, while Newbiggin has at least some ties to the coastal communities up towards Amble.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 20, 2020 18:53:10 GMT
It should be possible to flip Wansbeck fairly easily, swapping the Newbiggin Central and East ward for all of Longhorsley and Pegswood. You could probably make a reasonable case for it too - Longhorsley is the upper Wansbeck valley and is essentially Morpeth's hinterland, while Newbiggin has at least some ties to the coastal communities up towards Amble. Yes any seat with a small Labour (or Lib Dem) majority and a neighbouring Conservative seat is going to be fairly easy to do. Bedford and Canterbury for example would be no problem. In Coventry I believe it's possible to create two Conservative seats where there are currently none Coventry NW loses Radford to NE and gains Westwood (becoming Coventry West) which is enough to produce a Conservative lead of about 3,000 in 2019. Coventry South additionally loses St Michael's to NE and gains Lower Stoke and Wyken from that seat. This has a small Conservative lead (below 1,000) Obviously this is only possible because of the unusual results in 2019 and this would not be the best arrangement for the Conservatives in Coventry usually. Rather, removing Binley & Willenhall and St Michaels and adding Whoberley and Woodlands would create a much more sustainable Conservative seat with a notional majority over 5,000 in 2019 With a three-figure Labour majority in Warwick & Leamington and a 20,000 one in Kenilworth & Southam, it should of course be possible to re-arrange things there in such a way to create two Tory seats (I don't have numbers here yet and Leamington & Kenilworth could stil be a little unreliable but I'm fairly sure it would be Tory) Finally the three Walsall seats can be reconfigured in such a way to create three Tory seats, with the most marginal (Walsall West) still enjoying a lead of around 5,000
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Post by jacoblamsden on Feb 20, 2020 20:54:31 GMT
I've been having a play around with the new Boundary Assistant site. Not much new that can be done until the up to date electorates are uploaded but I thoguht I'd play about with the existing seats a bit in order to improve the situation (notioanlly) at the last election In London it's possible to flip five seats into the Conservative column 1. Dagenham & Hornchurch - relative to Dagenham & Rainham, loses Chadwell Heath and Whalebone to Romford, gains Hacton and St Andrews from Hornchurch & Upminster which gains Squirrels Heath from Romford. Would have a notional majority of about 8,000 in 2019 and clearly only one ward actually needs moving to have the desired effect. 2. Enfield Southgate. Loses Bowes, Palmers Green and Southgate Green, Gains Chase, Highlands and Town. Rename Enfield West. Notional Conservative majority of c. 4,000 3. Putney & Barnes - Gains Barnes and Mortlake from Ricjmond Park. Roehampton moves the other way. Notional Conservative majority just under 2,000 (though in reality the altered TV situation in the Barnes and Mortlake area might easily have overturned that. 4. Croydon Central gains Sanderstead and Selsdon from Croydon South and is renamed Croydon East. Addiscombe and Fairfield move the other way and South is renamed Croydon West. East would have had a Tory majorty of about 1,700 and West under 5,000 so there would be a risk here in ending up with no seats. 5. Eltham & Welling. Loses Kidbrooke and Shooters Hill. Gains Blackfen, East Wickham and Falconwood from Old Bexley & Sidcup which gains Christchurch, Danson and St Michaels from Bexleyheath. Bexleyhreath and Crayford picks up Belvedere, Erith and Northumberland Heath and revives Erith & Crayford. Eltham & Welling has a notional Conservative majority of 6,500 without endangering the position in Erith & Crayford (majority c. 9,000) I'm suggesting this without access to any predicted result totals by ward, but could you shift some wards around between Uxbridge, RN&P, Harrow East and Harrow West to get four Conservative seats rather than three? It's a tad messy but I'd have thought you could maybe get there with... Harrow East (66056) - Belmont, Canons, Edgware, Kenton East, Kenton West, Marlborough, Queensbury, Stanmore Park and Wealdstone. Harrow West (68655) - Greenhill, Harrow on the Hill, Harrow Weald, Hatch End, Headstone North, Headstone South, Pinner, Pinner South and West Harrow. Ruislip and Harrow South (66056) - Cavendish, Eastcote and East Ruislip, Manor, Rayners Lane, Roxbourne, Roxeth, South Ruislip and West Ruislip. Uxbridge and Northwood (71096) - Brunel, Harefield, Hillingdon East, Ickenham, Northwood, Northwood Hills, Uxbridge North, Uxbridge South and Yiewsley. And maybe these two? (although you'd probably be sacrificing sensible boundaries in most of the rest of the capital for these) Ilford North (66342) - Bridge, Clayhall, Fairlop, Fullwell, Hainault, Roding, Snaresbrook and Wanstead. (on second thoughts, maybe Snaresbrook and Wanstead are just as bad for the Tories these days as Aldborough and Barkingside, you'd probably have to steal Havering Park from Romford to make an Ilford North seat work) Feltham and Hampton (74903) - Bedfont, Feltham North, Feltham West, Fulwell and Hampton Hill, Hampton North, Hanworth, Hanworth Park, Heathfield, West Twickenham and Whitton (maybe opposition split between Labour in Hounslow and Lib Dems in Richmond, also the slightly more Brexity parts of both boroughs)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 21, 2020 8:15:29 GMT
The Harrow/Hillingdon situation works well - I never thought of that. It also has the effect of making Boris's seat slightly safer
The Feltham/Hampton link is one I've considered many times before so I should have thought of that. i'd do it slightly differently, basically the five Feltham wards plus the five southern wards from Twickenham (Hampton, Hampton North, Hampton Wick, Fulwell and Teddington). The six wards from Twickenham 'proper' then link with Isleworth plus the four Hounslow town wards and Cranford and Heston join the remainder of Brentford & Isleworth (Brentford & Heston presumably). Feltham & Hampton would certainly have had a Conservative plurality in 2019 based on my notional figures but as with the Putney/Richmond swap the altered tactical situation makes it very unpredictable. There is a sizeable Brexit party vote though in the Feltham end (which may have been available to the Tories as this would possibly have already been Tory held and therefore not had a BP candidate)
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 21, 2020 12:35:40 GMT
Let's have some fun with a 92-seat FPTP Wales. 25% tolerance, no crossing boundaries of principal areas: The following big rural areas need no enlargement: Anglesey 49,287 (2.08)
Beaumaris 25,316 (1.07) Holyhead 23,971 (1.01) Gwynedd 80,092 (3.38)
Arfon 29,583 (1.25) Dwyfor and Arfon South 27,297 (1.15) Meirionnydd 23,212 (0.98) Ceredigion 50,432 (2.13)
Aberystwyth 21,830 (0.92) Cardigan 28,602 (1.21) Powys 99,262 (4.19)
Welshpool 22,574 (0.95) Newtown 24,415 (1.03) Radnorshire and Builth 24,148 (1.02) Brecon 28,125 (1.19) Monmouthshire 68,267 (2.88)
Abergavenny 21,230 (0.90) Monmouth 20,118 (0.85) Chepstow 26,919 (1.14) Then let's do some blow-ups β starting in Clwyd: Conwy 88,860 (3.75)
Conwy 22,991 (0.97) Llandudno 21,803 (0.92) Llanrwst and Colwyn Bay 22,809 (0.96) Abergele and Old Colwyn 21,257 (0.90) Denbighshire 74,069 (3.12)
Rhyl 21,325 (0.90) Rhuddlan 25,349 (1.07) Denbigh 27,395 (1.16) Flintshire 112,938 (4.76)
Holywell 23,310 (0.98) Flint 20,751 (0.87) Hawarden 22,007 (0.93) Buckley 24,462 (1.03) Mold 22,408 (0.94) Wrexham 95,880 (4.04)
Gwersyllt 24,878 (1.05) Wrexham 24,087 (1.02) Maelor 20,513 (0.86) Chirk 26,402 (1.11) And then Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, and West Glamorgan: Pembrokeshire 87,062 (3.67)
Fishguard 20,402 (0.86) Haverfordwest 23,905 (1.01) Milford Haven 21,375 (0.90) Pembroke 21,380 (0.90) Carmarthenshire 133,887 (5.65)
Carmarthen 22,694 (0.96) Llandeilo 23,111 (0.97) Ammanford 20,986 (0.88) Pontyberem 21,939 (0.93) Kidwelly 20,459 (0.86) Llanelli 24,698 (1.04) Swansea 166,822 (7.03)
Pontarddulais 22,848 (0.96) Loughor 19,849 (0.84) Gower 20,534 (0.87) Swansea St Helen's 27,283 (1.15) Swansea Cwmbwrla 28,225 (1.19) Swansea Morriston 22,433 (0.95) Swansea St Thomas 25,650 (1.08) Neath Port Talbot 103,037 (4.34)
Pontardawe and Cadoxton 26,269 (1.11) Neath 28,422 (1.20) Briton Ferry 25,058 (1.06) Port Talbot 23,288 (0.98) And then the South: Bridgend 101,684 (4.29)
Maesteg 25,654 (1.08) Porthcawl 23,302 (0.98) Bridgend West 24,601 (1.04) Bridgend East 28,127 (1.19) Vale of Glamorgan 91,056 (3.84)
Cowbridge 20,897 (0.88) Barry West 23,903 (1.01) Barry East 24,876 (1.05) Penarth 21,380 (0.90) Rhondda Cynon Taf 166,953 (7.04)
Aberdare 21,681 (0.91) Mountain Ash 23,687 (1.00) Rhondda West 27,622 (1.16) Rhondda East 21,539 (0.91) Pontypridd 24,163 (1.02) Llantwit Fardre 28,033 (1.18) Llantrisant 20,228 (0.85) Merthyr Tydfil 42,082 (1.77)
Merthyr Tydfil North 23,123 (0.97) Merthyr Tydfil South 18,959 (0.80) Caerphilly 125,548 (5.29)
Bargoed 21,933 (0.92) Blackwood 23,311 (0.98) Risca and Abercarn 23,297 (0.98) Ystrad Mynach 28,522 (1.20) Caerphilly 28,485 (1.20) Blaenau Gwent 49,661 (2.09)
Ebbw Vale 25,050 (1.06) Abertillery 24,611 (1.04) Torfaen 66,153 (2.79)
Pontypool 20,507 (0.86) Cwmbran 23,327 (0.98) Torfaen East 22,319 (0.94) Newport 100,931 (4.26)
Newport Tredegar Park 25,896 (1.09) Newport Stow Hill 27,991 (1.18) Newport Victoria 23,406 (0.99) Newport Langstone 23,638 (1.00) Cardiff 227,878 (9.61)
Cardiff Ely 27,300 (1.15) Cardiff Radyr 21,124 (0.89) Cardiff Llandaff 21,190 (0.89) Cardiff Whitchurch 21,802 (0.92) Cardiff Llanishen 25,113 (1.06) Cardiff Cyncoed 25,550 (1.08) Cardiff Rumney 24,276 (1.02) Cardiff Roath 22,686 (0.96) Cardiff Castle 20,642 (0.87) Cardiff Bay 18,195 (0.77)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 21, 2020 16:49:13 GMT
Just adding Clapham to Bedford creates a clear Conservative lead here (well over 1,000) Luton East & Flitwick, Luton North & Dunstable and Luton South & Leighton Buzzard all have a Conservative lead of between 1,500 and 3,000 Hitchin & Welwyn is obviously safely Conservative (majority c, 12,000) St Albans East & Hatfield has a Conservative lead of about 6,000 but with a large squeezable Labour vote St Albans West & Harpenden has a rather smaller Tory lead ( a bit over 5,000) but a higher Tory vote share (lower Labour vote). Adding Radlett wasn't necessary to put this in the Tory column (but it doesn't hurt!)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 21, 2020 16:53:05 GMT
Obviously the Luton seats are ridiculous but I wanted to see if it could be done. It would equally be possible to eliminate Labour's seat in Norwich by merging it with South Norfolk and dividing the whole on East West lines.
This means it is possible to create seats in the Eastern region of which only one would be non-Conservative. It would be possible to eliminate Labour from Cambridge of course but in doing so would create at least one and probably two Lib Dem seats, so we may as well leave well alone there
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 21, 2020 17:01:50 GMT
Pete Whitehead your project has left me wondering if it would be just as easy to eliminate Conservative seats as you're finding it to create them.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 21, 2020 17:13:23 GMT
Pete Whitehead your project has left me wondering if it would be just as easy to eliminate Conservative seats as you're finding it to create them. It would be easy in some areas. It would be easy for example to turn seats like Chingford, Chipping Barnet, Kensington, Wimnledon etc. It would be very straightforward to turn Wolverhampton SW or Gedling or Bolton NE etc into Labour seats. You could even elimitae quite safe seats in some areas, for example with the proximity of many string Labour areas, you could divide Solihull up in such a way that it would be in three separate Labour seats
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Post by andrewp on Feb 21, 2020 18:43:10 GMT
Pete Whitehead your project has left me wondering if it would be just as easy to eliminate Conservative seats as you're finding it to create them. There are 15 English shire counties which are 100% Conservative. I wonder how many of them itβs possible to create a non Conservative seat in.
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 21, 2020 19:33:24 GMT
Pete Whitehead your project has left me wondering if it would be just as easy to eliminate Conservative seats as you're finding it to create them. There are 15 English shire counties which are 100% Conservative. I wonder how many of them itβs possible to create a non Conservative seat in. Warning: Image heavy post ahead. I have potentially created two in Buckinghamshire, but the boundaries would make Elbridge Gerry himself proud. Both would have been extremely marginal, but if I had to choose one I'd say Wycombe and Aylesbury Central was closer. In that seat I tried to remove the best Conservative wards from Wycombe, and add Aylesbury wards which would have been reasonably close. The thin rural strip would have been very Conservative but has a tiny electorate. The only issue here is Chesham and Amersham (and Aylesbury Outer) would be a bit over quota, but only by about 4,000. Similar efforts in Somerset and Wiltshire (the latter assuming we include Swindon) have been harder. Both of these potential seats would have been very close, but I'm not sure the Lib Dems would quite have carried Wells and Taunton, and Labour may have struggled in Swindon Central. Northamptonshire shouldn't be too bad - base a seat on just central Northampton and as little of the suburbs as possible, and a Labour seat should form fairly naturally. I didn't actually draw it up though, so this might not be as easy as I think. I've also had a quick look at Dorset and ruled out the possibility of a Labour seat there - Weymouth might have been fruitful territory in the past, and I imagine an urban Dorchester/Weymouth seat would have been pretty close in 2017, but that area swung significantly away from Labour.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 21, 2020 19:41:37 GMT
Those are good efforts bjornhattan! I agree in suspecting that Taunton and Wells would have been just Conservative. It would have been a very safe Lib Dem seat in say 2010.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 21, 2020 19:51:17 GMT
Godalmander
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Post by greenhert on May 2, 2020 13:34:24 GMT
Do you think the Boundary Commission would allow this plan for West Central London & Hounslow to go through? It would avoid making a mess out of Ealing's three constituencies.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,512
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Post by European Lefty on May 2, 2020 14:48:00 GMT
Do you think the Boundary Commission would allow this plan for West Central London & Hounslow to go through? It would avoid making a mess out of Ealing's three constituencies. View Attachment That looks far too logical for the Boundary Commission.
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